2017 NFL Wildcard Weekend Results
Results for Wildcard Weekend
SAT 4:20PM EST ESPN
TEN 22 @ 21 KC -7 The rested Chefs came out slicing and dicing with 19 1st downs, 259yds for 14 1Q pts, then upped their lead with a 2 minute drill TD to 21-3 by half. The Tuxes only managed 119 yds and a gifted FG.
Then much like Elvis, the Chefs unceremoniously left the building and game to the Tuxedos. 2nd half = 3 1st downs and 56yds for ZERO pts.
Worse yet, after recovering a 3Q punt muff at the Tuxes 28, a 3 and out culminating in a 48 yd FG attempt bouncing off the upright. At the gun, 325 net, 69 rush, 3DC 4-11, sacked 4 times, NO TO's.
Our Keys: Tuxes must rush 100+, hold the rock, no TO's. The Tuxes took advantage of the Chefs 2nd half vacancy, amassing 272 yds on 3 long TD drives, at the gun 397 net, 202 rush, 3DC 8-13, 32:30 TOP; with 2 TO's??
Since the 1970 merger, playoff ROAD teams with negative -2 TOM are a combined 5-53 with a .086 win % or a 91.4% chance of losing the game. So how in the hell did the Tuxes manage to win?
Chefs curse? Since 65 toss power trap matriculated the ball down the field, post season SU Chefs 4-16, Arrowhead: 2-7, 0 for last 6, 0-9 ATS. Not superstitious or other worldly so it must be something else. Will the Tuxes be so lucky at the Razor's Edge?
SAT 8:15PM EST NBC
ATL 26 @ 13 LAR -4.5 We Nattered: Rams fumbles lost 14 vs 8. O Drive time 21, plays 21, pts 3, Rams score quickly, Birds hold the rock, but have trouble converting. Special Pharoah? Return YD: KO LAR2; D ATL32. Punt Net LAR2, D ATL27. Keys: If the playoff tested Birds can play keep away, no TO's, and leverage their team speed on D, they could win.
At the gun...
ATL 72 plays, 125 rush on 39 att, TOP 37:35, NO TO's
LAR 68 plays, 115 rush on 16 att, TOP 22:25, 2 TO's
Since the 1970 merger, playoff HOME teams with negative -2 TOM are 12-29 for a .293 win % or a 70.7% chance of losing the game.
Special Pharoah or Feral? Indeed, with not one, but two special teams muffs deep on their side of the field, the Rams spotted the Falcons 10 pts on a -2 TOM, so naturally they and I (for picking them) get this...
SUN 1:05PM EST CBS
BUF 3 @ 10 JAX -7 We Nattered - Multi team tiebreaker has Bison in a game they should not be in, -57 pt diff? Shags ambushed by JimmyG9ers and mailed it in vs Titans, this week they show up.
Unfortunately, Marrone's "all in" bunch vs the Titans showed up. Bison put up a valiant fight, at the gun: 3DC 7-18, 262 net, 130 rush, 32:37 TOP, 2 ints, neither cost points.
Shags, 3DC 2-12, 230 net, 155 rush, 27:23 TOP, NO TO's. Leading rusher vs the #29 rush D, QB Bortles 88 yds, one more than he passed for. That and 10 pts at HOME against the #26 overall D? Extended hall pass ends next week at Heinz field.
SUN 4:40PM EST FOX
CAR 26 @ 31 NO -5.5 We Nattered: The disappearing Pants D? Since Wk9 382yd avg. Of late Halos D is midlin, Pants is porous.
Net 413 vs 410, yet neither team could run, subtracting Cams 37 rushing yds, 70 net rush. The Pants played keep away 3DC 8-17, TOP 34 vs 26, but failed to convert 1-4 RZ and close 4-5 FG's, the 28 yd miss was costly.
Halos 41 net rush, but who needs to run when they can pass on the Pants? 369 net pass, 1 sack. 3DC 2-8 as Saints moved in large chunks on long drives, converting 3-3 in the RZ, and closing with 4TD's, 1 int did not cost. Next week, will we see a redux of Wk2?
How Did We Do?
In quickly taking all the home favs on the opening lines, we sucked as none covered on the closing lines. All had been bet heavily pushing spreads up as high as KC -9.5; LAR -7; JAX -9.5; NO -7.5; closing at KC -9; LAR -6. As of 8AM EST Sunday JAX -8.5; NOR -7.
Wild Card home favs at -7 or more were 15-4 ATS, and traditionally WC games tend to be blow outs. So much for tradition, as a confluence of circumstance screwed the pooch and yours truly, half point on NO, 2 feral muffs by LAR, and the Zebras in KC. Whaddaya gonna do? Good times, SU 2-2, ATS 1-3.
Since 1995 in the Wild Card round, counting the KC loss, home favorites closing at -7 or greater are now 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS. Dropping the closing spread to -6, to include the LAR loss, home favs closing at -6 or more, now 24-8 SU and 20-12 ATS.
More Nattering to come this week on how the -2 TOM road Titans miraculously won, or how the hell the Chefs were robbed on national TV, by a wrecking crew of Zebras.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
SAT 4:20PM EST ESPN
TEN 22 @ 21 KC -7 The rested Chefs came out slicing and dicing with 19 1st downs, 259yds for 14 1Q pts, then upped their lead with a 2 minute drill TD to 21-3 by half. The Tuxes only managed 119 yds and a gifted FG.
Then much like Elvis, the Chefs unceremoniously left the building and game to the Tuxedos. 2nd half = 3 1st downs and 56yds for ZERO pts.
Worse yet, after recovering a 3Q punt muff at the Tuxes 28, a 3 and out culminating in a 48 yd FG attempt bouncing off the upright. At the gun, 325 net, 69 rush, 3DC 4-11, sacked 4 times, NO TO's.
Our Keys: Tuxes must rush 100+, hold the rock, no TO's. The Tuxes took advantage of the Chefs 2nd half vacancy, amassing 272 yds on 3 long TD drives, at the gun 397 net, 202 rush, 3DC 8-13, 32:30 TOP; with 2 TO's??
Since the 1970 merger, playoff ROAD teams with negative -2 TOM are a combined 5-53 with a .086 win % or a 91.4% chance of losing the game. So how in the hell did the Tuxes manage to win?
Chefs curse? Since 65 toss power trap matriculated the ball down the field, post season SU Chefs 4-16, Arrowhead: 2-7, 0 for last 6, 0-9 ATS. Not superstitious or other worldly so it must be something else. Will the Tuxes be so lucky at the Razor's Edge?
SAT 8:15PM EST NBC
ATL 26 @ 13 LAR -4.5 We Nattered: Rams fumbles lost 14 vs 8. O Drive time 21, plays 21, pts 3, Rams score quickly, Birds hold the rock, but have trouble converting. Special Pharoah? Return YD: KO LAR2; D ATL32. Punt Net LAR2, D ATL27. Keys: If the playoff tested Birds can play keep away, no TO's, and leverage their team speed on D, they could win.
At the gun...
ATL 72 plays, 125 rush on 39 att, TOP 37:35, NO TO's
LAR 68 plays, 115 rush on 16 att, TOP 22:25, 2 TO's
Since the 1970 merger, playoff HOME teams with negative -2 TOM are 12-29 for a .293 win % or a 70.7% chance of losing the game.
Special Pharoah or Feral? Indeed, with not one, but two special teams muffs deep on their side of the field, the Rams spotted the Falcons 10 pts on a -2 TOM, so naturally they and I (for picking them) get this...
SUN 1:05PM EST CBS
BUF 3 @ 10 JAX -7 We Nattered - Multi team tiebreaker has Bison in a game they should not be in, -57 pt diff? Shags ambushed by JimmyG9ers and mailed it in vs Titans, this week they show up.
Unfortunately, Marrone's "all in" bunch vs the Titans showed up. Bison put up a valiant fight, at the gun: 3DC 7-18, 262 net, 130 rush, 32:37 TOP, 2 ints, neither cost points.
Shags, 3DC 2-12, 230 net, 155 rush, 27:23 TOP, NO TO's. Leading rusher vs the #29 rush D, QB Bortles 88 yds, one more than he passed for. That and 10 pts at HOME against the #26 overall D? Extended hall pass ends next week at Heinz field.
SUN 4:40PM EST FOX
CAR 26 @ 31 NO -5.5 We Nattered: The disappearing Pants D? Since Wk9 382yd avg. Of late Halos D is midlin, Pants is porous.
Net 413 vs 410, yet neither team could run, subtracting Cams 37 rushing yds, 70 net rush. The Pants played keep away 3DC 8-17, TOP 34 vs 26, but failed to convert 1-4 RZ and close 4-5 FG's, the 28 yd miss was costly.
Halos 41 net rush, but who needs to run when they can pass on the Pants? 369 net pass, 1 sack. 3DC 2-8 as Saints moved in large chunks on long drives, converting 3-3 in the RZ, and closing with 4TD's, 1 int did not cost. Next week, will we see a redux of Wk2?
How Did We Do?
In quickly taking all the home favs on the opening lines, we sucked as none covered on the closing lines. All had been bet heavily pushing spreads up as high as KC -9.5; LAR -7; JAX -9.5; NO -7.5; closing at KC -9; LAR -6. As of 8AM EST Sunday JAX -8.5; NOR -7.
Wild Card home favs at -7 or more were 15-4 ATS, and traditionally WC games tend to be blow outs. So much for tradition, as a confluence of circumstance screwed the pooch and yours truly, half point on NO, 2 feral muffs by LAR, and the Zebras in KC. Whaddaya gonna do? Good times, SU 2-2, ATS 1-3.
Since 1995 in the Wild Card round, counting the KC loss, home favorites closing at -7 or greater are now 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS. Dropping the closing spread to -6, to include the LAR loss, home favs closing at -6 or more, now 24-8 SU and 20-12 ATS.
More Nattering to come this week on how the -2 TOM road Titans miraculously won, or how the hell the Chefs were robbed on national TV, by a wrecking crew of Zebras.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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