2017 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
A brief review of our Wildcard Weekend picks and the results. In taking all the home favs, ATS 1-3, and that 1 is a push, we are now 146-106-8; lox still at 48-28-2. After celebrating our regular season victory, still hangin by a thread, 3 ahead of Mr. Keefer at 143-109-7, who went 2-2 ATS.
How did we really do? Aside from odd turnovers exiting the Rams, and Zebras killing the Chefs, in essence as we sucked bilge, the surf rag-dolled us. How could we not see that rogue wave coming?
In acting like the electorate, and losing focus on current events, we committed the cardinal sin of faith in fallacy viz. the distraction of loosely correlated historical data based upon completely independent variables, in suggesting potential outcomes of current or future events.
As with investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The focus should always be, the participants in this weeks game and their current state of affairs, viz. what have you done for me lately. More on that subject from the respectable Case Keefer.
With that lesson firmly refreshed in our little knowing mind, this week, once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more... as we take 2 roadies, 1 dog, 1 fav; and 2 home favorites in what we feel, thematically, to be a week of Paper Lions.
Along those lines, shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Update 01/13/2018 7AM EST: Made MIN -3.5 a LOCK. While the majority of the public is betting the Falcons, Patriots, Steeler's and Saints, smart money or sharps have moved the line on the Jaguars and Vikings in contrarian fashion.
SAT 4:35PM EST NBC
ATL PK @ PHI LOCK The well rested Eagles (3 wks) nest is invaded by the playoff tested Dirty Birds. ATL drives: O: TOP 1, plays 2, yds 3, pts 7, 3DC 1, RZ 23. Bend don't break D: TO's 27, TOP 29, plays 32, yds 26, 3DC 17, RZ5. Trufant makes a HUGE difference in the Dirty Birds secondary, if he played in last years SB? No 28-3 comeback by the Pats.
Coaching, Quinn's Squawk D over Pederson's O. Sans collateral damage Wentz keeping the other D on the field, and the Cheesy one off it, the less than full Philly Cheese Steaks might have been a Paper Lion anyway. D: run yds 1, attempts 1 (fewest), pass yds 17, attempts 2 (most), RZ 20. What happens if somebody holds the rock and gets ahead of PHI? Trailed KC -14 = L; SEA -14 = L; NYG -13 = W; all other deficits were -7 or less.
Our prognostication? The Dirty Birds opened at the Peppermill as pick'em moving to -3. If the shoe fits? No, old joke, if the foo (bird) sh*ts wear it. When your O puts you up, opponents pass, not run, which won't happen for Philly this week, as Hotlanta are better on both sides of the ball. Like we said before, one and done.
Last week, the Birds of Prey D shutdown Goff and Gurley, as they picked on healthy but careless Lamb carrion with 4FG's. Versus an unhealthy LT (Vaitai, All Pro Peter's sub)+ new Foles Eagle offense? If Falcons get up by 7+, perhaps a pick six, then? The longer the Eagles D stays on the field, the worse it will get, here's a hint...
SAT 8:15PM EST CBS
TEN @ NE -13 The rested Minutemen host the Zebra assisted Tuxedos; TOM -6, 3DC O25, drive plays 28, yards 25, pass D25, O23, 13TD, 15INT, road D23, #4 run D is deceiving as opponents are too busy passing into the soft underbelly.
McDaniels and Brady can exploit LeBeau's, not of Hogans Heroes, zone blitz far more effectively than the Chefs. The Pats 29D bends, pass 30, TOP 22, plays 30, yds 31, 3DC 21, but does not break pts 6, RZ 4, TOM +6. Coaching, the Master over Mularkey.
Our prognostication? This week, the opponents all pro TE will not go down, and no zeal of Zebras will materialize to rescue the Tuxes. With Gronk running wild, double down, 1st half of Chefs game, a 21-3 Paper Lion Tuxes deficit, should be duplicated in both halves of this game. Lucky 13 is not asking much of Belichick and Tom Terrific.
A brief review of our Wildcard Weekend picks and the results. In taking all the home favs, ATS 1-3, and that 1 is a push, we are now 146-106-8; lox still at 48-28-2. After celebrating our regular season victory, still hangin by a thread, 3 ahead of Mr. Keefer at 143-109-7, who went 2-2 ATS.
How did we really do? Aside from odd turnovers exiting the Rams, and Zebras killing the Chefs, in essence as we sucked bilge, the surf rag-dolled us. How could we not see that rogue wave coming?
In acting like the electorate, and losing focus on current events, we committed the cardinal sin of faith in fallacy viz. the distraction of loosely correlated historical data based upon completely independent variables, in suggesting potential outcomes of current or future events.
FYI, since 1995 in the Wild Card round, home favorites closing at -7 or greater are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS.... traditionally WC games tend to be blow outs. So much for tradition, as a confluence of circumstance screwed the pooch and yours truly.This comes to mind, if the shoe fits wear it? Being self deceived, we tried to jam our foot into an inappropriately sized shoe. Forget what happened last year or before with other teams. Today in this tilt, those teams are not playing, so that history matters not.
As with investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The focus should always be, the participants in this weeks game and their current state of affairs, viz. what have you done for me lately. More on that subject from the respectable Case Keefer.
With that lesson firmly refreshed in our little knowing mind, this week, once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more... as we take 2 roadies, 1 dog, 1 fav; and 2 home favorites in what we feel, thematically, to be a week of Paper Lions.
Along those lines, shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Update 01/13/2018 7AM EST: Made MIN -3.5 a LOCK. While the majority of the public is betting the Falcons, Patriots, Steeler's and Saints, smart money or sharps have moved the line on the Jaguars and Vikings in contrarian fashion.
SAT 4:35PM EST NBC
ATL PK @ PHI LOCK The well rested Eagles (3 wks) nest is invaded by the playoff tested Dirty Birds. ATL drives: O: TOP 1, plays 2, yds 3, pts 7, 3DC 1, RZ 23. Bend don't break D: TO's 27, TOP 29, plays 32, yds 26, 3DC 17, RZ5. Trufant makes a HUGE difference in the Dirty Birds secondary, if he played in last years SB? No 28-3 comeback by the Pats.
Coaching, Quinn's Squawk D over Pederson's O. Sans collateral damage Wentz keeping the other D on the field, and the Cheesy one off it, the less than full Philly Cheese Steaks might have been a Paper Lion anyway. D: run yds 1, attempts 1 (fewest), pass yds 17, attempts 2 (most), RZ 20. What happens if somebody holds the rock and gets ahead of PHI? Trailed KC -14 = L; SEA -14 = L; NYG -13 = W; all other deficits were -7 or less.
Our prognostication? The Dirty Birds opened at the Peppermill as pick'em moving to -3. If the shoe fits? No, old joke, if the foo (bird) sh*ts wear it. When your O puts you up, opponents pass, not run, which won't happen for Philly this week, as Hotlanta are better on both sides of the ball. Like we said before, one and done.
Last week, the Birds of Prey D shutdown Goff and Gurley, as they picked on healthy but careless Lamb carrion with 4FG's. Versus an unhealthy LT (Vaitai, All Pro Peter's sub)
TEN @ NE -13 The rested Minutemen host the Zebra assisted Tuxedos; TOM -6, 3DC O25, drive plays 28, yards 25, pass D25, O23, 13TD, 15INT, road D23, #4 run D is deceiving as opponents are too busy passing into the soft underbelly.
McDaniels and Brady can exploit LeBeau's, not of Hogans Heroes, zone blitz far more effectively than the Chefs. The Pats 29D bends, pass 30, TOP 22, plays 30, yds 31, 3DC 21, but does not break pts 6, RZ 4, TOM +6. Coaching, the Master over Mularkey.
Our prognostication? This week, the opponents all pro TE will not go down, and no zeal of Zebras will materialize to rescue the Tuxes. With Gronk running wild, double down, 1st half of Chefs game, a 21-3 Paper Lion Tuxes deficit, should be duplicated in both halves of this game. Lucky 13 is not asking much of Belichick and Tom Terrific.
SUN 1:05PM EST CBS
JAX +9 @ PIT Sacksonville sacks 55, D drive TOP, plays, yds, pts, all #1; TOM +10, RZD 2, O2, 3DC D4, O20. Post Dareus, Shags rush D8. Last wk at home vs 26D, 29th vs run, the Shags #1 run O managed only 10pts, 67 RB rush yds, 88 scrambling by Bortles. Fournette's ankle and O-line issues?
Riveters O TOP 3, plays 4, yds 6, pts 4, sacks 24, RZ 22. D: TOP 12, plays 6, yds 8, pts 8, sacks 56, RZ 28. Recall Wk5 5TO, twin pick six, 231 rush, 90yd garbage TD run, 30-9 home loss, with LB Shazier, WR Brown and without Dareus? Coaching, Tomlin over Marrone.
Prior to last weeks 10-3 win, the last Shags playoff win was in 2007, in becoming the ONLY team to beat the Steelers twice in PIT, in the SAME season. In keeping with this weeks theme, just like Wk5, that was then, who cares. The JimmyG9ers hung 44 and 3TO's on the Shags with less talent.
Our prognostication? If you can't score, you can't win, but it won't be the Riveters not scoring. Rested Shazier-less D spys Bortles, stifles Shags Paper Lion O. Big Ben and Riveters O hold the rock, +350yds, no TO's, no pick 6's = W, but given the Shag D has improved since Wk5, -9 might be asking a bit much.
Riveters O TOP 3, plays 4, yds 6, pts 4, sacks 24, RZ 22. D: TOP 12, plays 6, yds 8, pts 8, sacks 56, RZ 28. Recall Wk5 5TO, twin pick six, 231 rush, 90yd garbage TD run, 30-9 home loss, with LB Shazier, WR Brown and without Dareus? Coaching, Tomlin over Marrone.
Prior to last weeks 10-3 win, the last Shags playoff win was in 2007, in becoming the ONLY team to beat the Steelers twice in PIT, in the SAME season. In keeping with this weeks theme, just like Wk5, that was then, who cares. The JimmyG9ers hung 44 and 3TO's on the Shags with less talent.
Our prognostication? If you can't score, you can't win, but it won't be the Riveters not scoring. Rested Shazier-less D spys Bortles, stifles Shags Paper Lion O. Big Ben and Riveters O hold the rock, +350yds, no TO's, no pick 6's = W, but given the Shag D has improved since Wk5, -9 might be asking a bit much.
SUN 4:40PM EST FOX
NO @ MIN -3.5 LOCK With the public all over the Halos, the line has moved to -5.5 as rested Norsemen host beat up Saints. Norsemen O11, D1, 3DC O3 D1; RZ O9, D3; TOM +5; sacks 37, allowed 27, Drive D: TOP7, plays 11, yds 3, pts 2. C Easton out, T Elflien?
Halos O2, D17, 3DC O19 D27; RZ O8 D14; TOM +7; sacks 42, allowed 20, Drive D: TOP18, plays 22, yds 25, pts 15. T Peat out, Kelemete in. Recall Wk1 held to 60 rush (Peterson), allowed 470 net, in 29-19 loss? In that tilt, Vikes QB Bradford 346 yds (rookie secondary), RB Cook 127 yds, Halos T Strief, LB Anzalone, S Vaccaro, all are now on IR.
Our prognostication? A hard fought close game. Wk1 19pts were the most given up by Vikes D at dome. Again, who cares. What will 1st time playoff QB Keenum, RB's Murray and McKinnon do vs Halos improved D? Said D thrived because of a Kamara - Ingram improved run game, keeping their D off the field.
The Halos have the more experienced QB. Coaching, vs Payton's O, Zimmer's D had an extra week to rest and prepare, which should make the difference. The Vikes #1D is the same if not better than Wk1, if they stop the improved Halo run game, and prevent big plays, longer time on the field will make the Halo middlin #15D Paper Lion pedestrian.
Halos O2, D17, 3DC O19 D27; RZ O8 D14; TOM +7; sacks 42, allowed 20, Drive D: TOP18, plays 22, yds 25, pts 15. T Peat out, Kelemete in. Recall Wk1 held to 60 rush (Peterson), allowed 470 net, in 29-19 loss? In that tilt, Vikes QB Bradford 346 yds (rookie secondary), RB Cook 127 yds, Halos T Strief, LB Anzalone, S Vaccaro, all are now on IR.
Our prognostication? A hard fought close game. Wk1 19pts were the most given up by Vikes D at dome. Again, who cares. What will 1st time playoff QB Keenum, RB's Murray and McKinnon do vs Halos improved D? Said D thrived because of a Kamara - Ingram improved run game, keeping their D off the field.
The Halos have the more experienced QB. Coaching, vs Payton's O, Zimmer's D had an extra week to rest and prepare, which should make the difference. The Vikes #1D is the same if not better than Wk1, if they stop the improved Halo run game, and prevent big plays, longer time on the field will make the Halo middlin #15D Paper Lion pedestrian.
As for our prognostication debacle last week, and in keeping with tonight's theme, much like a Paper Lion (at 12:00 a ROFLMAO with St. Vincent)...
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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