2017 NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
A brief review of week 17. How did we do? 11-5. On the year 153-103 = 60% - Lox 50-28 = 64%. Subtract our 7 pushes (2 on lox) from 153, with a record of 146-103-7; lox at 48-28-2...
We ended the year as the #1 percentage winner on the web (cherry picking 30% of ALL games ATS), and #1 in picking all 256 NFL games ATS.
After 17 weeks and 256 NFL games, one who knows little finished ahead of 51 paid professional experts. Each week and YTD results can be found here.
After 40 NCAA bowl games, we didn't do too bad this year: SU 28-12 70%; ATS 26-14 65%; Locks 11-4 73%; check it out at the original post.
Shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Our selections are underlined in BOLD
SAT 4:20PM EST ESPN
TEN @ KC -7 Last week the 4-4, 1-3 Tuxes crawled by the "all in the mail" Shags, while the 4-4; 4-0 Chefs starters took the week off. Titans convert few 3DC O25, nor hold the rock, drive plays 28, yards 25, pass poorly O23, 13TD, 15INT, nor defend it D25. RB Murray out, Henry carries the load. Tuxes poor road D23, W's Wk2 @ JAX, crawled by CLE, IND, 5L's, 2 blow outs. Tuxes #4 run D is deceiving as opponents are too busy picking their innards.
Resurgent 4W Chefs O rush 9, pass 7, KO'ed Traitors and Bolts to win West. Last five O avg. 412yd. D28, Pass 29, Rush 25. Last 4 IN KC: opponents 14pt avg, 6W's all +7 pt diff, 3 double digits, L's PIT, BUF in the 1-6 funk. Tuxes -22 pt diff, TOM -4 vs Chefs +15 with only 11 TO's. 12/18/16, Titans 19 @ Chefs 17. Coaching, Chefs Reid over Mularkey, but there is D coordinator LeBeau. Not of Hogan's Heroes, of zone blitz and the HOF. This is why Tuxes defend long ball and seemingly the run well, but give up the middle. Refer to deceiving above.
Keys: Tuxes must rush 100+, hold the rock, no TO's. Coach Reid, QB Smith, rested Chefs must be aggressive, do some home cooking by letting it fly. Scoring early and often will perhaps force playoff rookie QB Mariota into the air, which could lead to a blow out. Chefs curse? Since 65 toss power trap matriculated the ball down the field, post season SU Chefs 4-15, Arrowhead: 2-6, 0 for last 5, 0-8 ATS, overdue?
SAT 8:15PM EST NBC
ATL @ LAR -4.5 Last week 6-2; 3-1 Dirty Birds earned a must win over the Pants, while the 5-3; 2-2 Rams starters took the week off. Birds C Mack? G Levitre out. Drives: O: TOP 1, Plays 2, Yds 3, 3DC 1, RZ 23. Bend don't break D: TO's 27, TOP 32, Plays 32, Yds 25, 3DC 17, RZ5. On the road: crawled by CHI, DET, NYJ, SEA, TB, L's NE -16, CAR -3, NO -10.
Rams rush D28, RZ 24, D sacks 48 vs ATL 24 allowed, D picks 18 vs 8; fumbles lost 14 vs 8. O Drive time 21, plays 21, pts 3, TOM +7 vs Birds -2. Rams score quickly, Birds hold the rock, but have trouble converting. Special Pharoah? Return YD: KO LAR2; D ATL32. Punt Net LAR2, D ATL27. Cheap fav? Rookie playoff QB Goff, Ram Kicker Ficken, Zuerlein Out.
Keys: Many pundits think the Birds can upset the Rams. Closing with tough division games has beaten Private Ryan's Dirty Birds up. Road D pass and run is 14th, vs quality teams losing in double digits twice. If the playoff tested Birds can play keep away, no TO's, and leverage their team speed on D, they could win. If not vs Son of Bum's D, then this becomes a track meet in which the Ram Utes pull away, and could turn ugly. The Birds emulate the Squawk D, the Rams just obliterated that scheme 42-7. With an extra week of rest and prep, innovative coaching McVay over Quinn.
SUN 1:05PM EST CBS
BUF @ JAX -7 Last week the 5-3 B2BL Shags were "all in the mail" being swept to the Tuxes, while the 4-4; 3-1 Bison crawled by the Fins to get in the backdoor, courtesy of the Gals slapping the grabby Poes. Multi team tiebreaker has Bison in a game they should not be in, -57 pt diff?
Bufs O-line is in tatters, McCoy and Tyrod are hobbled. Overall D26, rush 29, pass O31. Three road W's, ATL, KC, both on off days, then hapless Fins, 5L's, 3 blow outs. Shags O rush 1 should gash Bills horrific road D. RZ: O2; D2, 3DC D4; O20. Conversion issue? McCoy-less Bills O6 rush vs Shags D21 rush is a question. Post Dareus, Shags rush D8. Equally inept coaching, battle of opportunistic D, TOM Shags +10 vs Bills +9.
Keys: Two 1st time playoff QB's. Sacks allowed JAX 24 vs 47; Made JAX 55 vs 27, pressure much? Post Texan blow out, Shags ambushed by JimmyG9ers and mailed it in vs Titans, this week they show up. Not a pretty day for Tyrod, no D, McCoy-less Bison vs 2 overall D, same Squawk scheme. Expect turnovers a plenty.
SUN 4:40PM EST FOX
CAR @ NO -5.5 Last week the 6-2; 3-1 Pants and 5-3; 2-2 Halos played hard in losing optional road games. Saints swept the Pants, wk3 34-13 away, wk13 31-21 home. 3rd times a charm? Teams 2-0 reg season, 13-7 SU in playoff gm 3.
Cats leading rusher, their QB, Pass D18, O28, Rush O4, D3, teams are too busy passing to run. Sound familiar? The disappearing Pants D? Since Wk9 382yd avg. Road L's NO 31-21, 279 net, 112 rush, D 400 net. ATL 22-10, 248 net, 87 rush, D 371 net. C Kalil? G Turner? Halos 3DC O19 D27; TOM +7, Pants -1; Sacks allowed 20 vs 35; made 42 vs 50. G Kelemete? T Armstead?
Keys: Due to closing with tough division games, both sides are beat up, have O-line issues. Of late Halos D is midlin, Pants is porous. Balance on both sides of the ball, a veteran QB that has weapons, is not the rushing leader, a definite coaching advantage, and dome field make Halos the bet.
This week, we quickly took all the home favs on the opening lines. All have been bet heavily pushing spreads up as high as KC -9.5; LAR -7; JAX -9.5; NO -7.5. There is a reason those spreads have all widened.
FYI, since 1995 in the Wild Card round, home favorites closing at -7 or greater are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Speaking of matriculating down the field....
A brief review of week 17. How did we do? 11-5. On the year 153-103 = 60% - Lox 50-28 = 64%. Subtract our 7 pushes (2 on lox) from 153, with a record of 146-103-7; lox at 48-28-2...
We ended the year as the #1 percentage winner on the web (cherry picking 30% of ALL games ATS), and #1 in picking all 256 NFL games ATS.
After 17 weeks and 256 NFL games, one who knows little finished ahead of 51 paid professional experts. Each week and YTD results can be found here.
After 40 NCAA bowl games, we didn't do too bad this year: SU 28-12 70%; ATS 26-14 65%; Locks 11-4 73%; check it out at the original post.
Shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Our selections are underlined in BOLD
SAT 4:20PM EST ESPN
TEN @ KC -7 Last week the 4-4, 1-3 Tuxes crawled by the "all in the mail" Shags, while the 4-4; 4-0 Chefs starters took the week off. Titans convert few 3DC O25, nor hold the rock, drive plays 28, yards 25, pass poorly O23, 13TD, 15INT, nor defend it D25. RB Murray out, Henry carries the load. Tuxes poor road D23, W's Wk2 @ JAX, crawled by CLE, IND, 5L's, 2 blow outs. Tuxes #4 run D is deceiving as opponents are too busy picking their innards.
Resurgent 4W Chefs O rush 9, pass 7, KO'ed Traitors and Bolts to win West. Last five O avg. 412yd. D28, Pass 29, Rush 25. Last 4 IN KC: opponents 14pt avg, 6W's all +7 pt diff, 3 double digits, L's PIT, BUF in the 1-6 funk. Tuxes -22 pt diff, TOM -4 vs Chefs +15 with only 11 TO's. 12/18/16, Titans 19 @ Chefs 17. Coaching, Chefs Reid over Mularkey, but there is D coordinator LeBeau. Not of Hogan's Heroes, of zone blitz and the HOF. This is why Tuxes defend long ball and seemingly the run well, but give up the middle. Refer to deceiving above.
Keys: Tuxes must rush 100+, hold the rock, no TO's. Coach Reid, QB Smith, rested Chefs must be aggressive, do some home cooking by letting it fly. Scoring early and often will perhaps force playoff rookie QB Mariota into the air, which could lead to a blow out. Chefs curse? Since 65 toss power trap matriculated the ball down the field, post season SU Chefs 4-15, Arrowhead: 2-6, 0 for last 5, 0-8 ATS, overdue?
SAT 8:15PM EST NBC
ATL @ LAR -4.5 Last week 6-2; 3-1 Dirty Birds earned a must win over the Pants, while the 5-3; 2-2 Rams starters took the week off. Birds C Mack? G Levitre out. Drives: O: TOP 1, Plays 2, Yds 3, 3DC 1, RZ 23. Bend don't break D: TO's 27, TOP 32, Plays 32, Yds 25, 3DC 17, RZ5. On the road: crawled by CHI, DET, NYJ, SEA, TB, L's NE -16, CAR -3, NO -10.
Rams rush D28, RZ 24, D sacks 48 vs ATL 24 allowed, D picks 18 vs 8; fumbles lost 14 vs 8. O Drive time 21, plays 21, pts 3, TOM +7 vs Birds -2. Rams score quickly, Birds hold the rock, but have trouble converting. Special Pharoah? Return YD: KO LAR2; D ATL32. Punt Net LAR2, D ATL27. Cheap fav? Rookie playoff QB Goff, Ram Kicker Ficken, Zuerlein Out.
Keys: Many pundits think the Birds can upset the Rams. Closing with tough division games has beaten Private Ryan's Dirty Birds up. Road D pass and run is 14th, vs quality teams losing in double digits twice. If the playoff tested Birds can play keep away, no TO's, and leverage their team speed on D, they could win. If not vs Son of Bum's D, then this becomes a track meet in which the Ram Utes pull away, and could turn ugly. The Birds emulate the Squawk D, the Rams just obliterated that scheme 42-7. With an extra week of rest and prep, innovative coaching McVay over Quinn.
SUN 1:05PM EST CBS
BUF @ JAX -7 Last week the 5-3 B2BL Shags were "all in the mail" being swept to the Tuxes, while the 4-4; 3-1 Bison crawled by the Fins to get in the backdoor, courtesy of the Gals slapping the grabby Poes. Multi team tiebreaker has Bison in a game they should not be in, -57 pt diff?
Bufs O-line is in tatters, McCoy and Tyrod are hobbled. Overall D26, rush 29, pass O31. Three road W's, ATL, KC, both on off days, then hapless Fins, 5L's, 3 blow outs. Shags O rush 1 should gash Bills horrific road D. RZ: O2; D2, 3DC D4; O20. Conversion issue? McCoy-less Bills O6 rush vs Shags D21 rush is a question. Post Dareus, Shags rush D8. Equally inept coaching, battle of opportunistic D, TOM Shags +10 vs Bills +9.
Keys: Two 1st time playoff QB's. Sacks allowed JAX 24 vs 47; Made JAX 55 vs 27, pressure much? Post Texan blow out, Shags ambushed by JimmyG9ers and mailed it in vs Titans, this week they show up. Not a pretty day for Tyrod, no D, McCoy-less Bison vs 2 overall D, same Squawk scheme. Expect turnovers a plenty.
SUN 4:40PM EST FOX
CAR @ NO -5.5 Last week the 6-2; 3-1 Pants and 5-3; 2-2 Halos played hard in losing optional road games. Saints swept the Pants, wk3 34-13 away, wk13 31-21 home. 3rd times a charm? Teams 2-0 reg season, 13-7 SU in playoff gm 3.
Cats leading rusher, their QB, Pass D18, O28, Rush O4, D3, teams are too busy passing to run. Sound familiar? The disappearing Pants D? Since Wk9 382yd avg. Road L's NO 31-21, 279 net, 112 rush, D 400 net. ATL 22-10, 248 net, 87 rush, D 371 net. C Kalil? G Turner? Halos 3DC O19 D27; TOM +7, Pants -1; Sacks allowed 20 vs 35; made 42 vs 50. G Kelemete? T Armstead?
Keys: Due to closing with tough division games, both sides are beat up, have O-line issues. Of late Halos D is midlin, Pants is porous. Balance on both sides of the ball, a veteran QB that has weapons, is not the rushing leader, a definite coaching advantage, and dome field make Halos the bet.
This week, we quickly took all the home favs on the opening lines. All have been bet heavily pushing spreads up as high as KC -9.5; LAR -7; JAX -9.5; NO -7.5. There is a reason those spreads have all widened.
FYI, since 1995 in the Wild Card round, home favorites closing at -7 or greater are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Speaking of matriculating down the field....
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