NCAA CFP 2017 Football Bowl Predictions
An Exercise in Futility
Picking 40 bowls and Champ. Game, SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread).
2017: SU 28-13 68%; ATS 27-14 66%; Locks 11-4 73%
2016: SU 27-15 64%; ATS 23-19 55%; Locks 6-7 46%
2015: SU 27-14 66%; ATS 19-22 46%; Locks 6-3 67%
2014: SU I did not ; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 7-2 77%
There was only one push TCU -2. Adjusting ATS 26-14-1 for this year.
The line will be posted for all games in advance. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all well in advance of kickoff.
The line (spread) will be next to our ATS pick; - (minus) favored and we are giving the points; + (plus) underdog and we are getting the points. PK pick em or even.
IF our SU pick differs from our ATS pick, there will be asterisk's next to the team.
When our pre game picks are made, we will underline them. Correct picks will be bolded. Incorrect picks we will remove the underline.
Over Under total is next to bowl name, below which we will timeline our SU and ATS progress for this year. YTD can be found at the top of this post.
*** triple asterisk next to the over under indicates high confidence in our ATS pick (Lox). Since I am picking 41 games, I am taking any push (on the number) to be a win.
For updates, results and future picks, we will make separate but brief future posts, which will link back to this main post.
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions. This information is provided strictly for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk.
Notes
12/16/17 11AM - Flopped to Marshall +6
12/17/17 Noon - Flopped to FAU -17
12/28/17 10AM - Midpoint - Losses: W Kentucky, Arkansas St. are excusable flip a coin games. SMU (coach bailed), FIU (home game), Toledo (reading own press clippings), all mailed it in with no shows. Late SDSU TO in Army RZ, Black Knights earned the W.
12/30/17 9AM - 3/4 point - Losses: Northwestern - 1-5 on 4DC, 2:20 left, shoe size IQ coach goes on 4th and 1, from own 39. Failure results is not covering -6 and almost losing. Utah St - 4 missed FG's, fumble at NMS 1yd line lead to OT loss.
12/31/17 11AM - Pre New Years - Losses: With Bulldog D + run, +7, I smelled this, but MSU coach bailed, starting JR QB out. Frosh Thompson held his own 147 rush, 127 pass, 1 int. Louisville, QB Jackson 4 ints = -16pt diff; like Bridgewater overrated, Petrino bowls 1-3.
01/02/18 Noon - Losses: Pulling up lame in the stretch, not what we had in mind. Aside from Bama's Clemson bashing, the other four bowls were decided in the 4Q or OT wrought with reversals of, and acts of fortune. O fortune, fortune! All men call thee fickle.
01/08/18 5AM - Final pick made, public is all over the Tide, yet number is decreasing. Large smart money bets are taking the home Dawgs on money line and spread.
After 41 games, 20 favs and 21 dogs have covered, magical equilibrium? My favs are 17-11 and the dogs have been mui affettuoso at 10-3. See you next year.
A Happy, Healthy, Sane Holiday Season and Prosperous New Year to all.
Resources
CFP rankings from NCAA Bowl Site. Click game result for box score. Spread courtesy of VegasInsider. Matchup info from TeamRankings. Stats courtesy of the indispensable CFB Reference, from the makers of Pro Football Reference
*Note: All times Eastern
Picking 40 bowls and Champ. Game, SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread).
2017: SU 28-13 68%; ATS 27-14 66%; Locks 11-4 73%
2016: SU 27-15 64%; ATS 23-19 55%; Locks 6-7 46%
2015: SU 27-14 66%; ATS 19-22 46%; Locks 6-3 67%
2014: SU I did not ; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 7-2 77%
There was only one push TCU -2. Adjusting ATS 26-14-1 for this year.
The line will be posted for all games in advance. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all well in advance of kickoff.
The line (spread) will be next to our ATS pick; - (minus) favored and we are giving the points; + (plus) underdog and we are getting the points. PK pick em or even.
IF our SU pick differs from our ATS pick, there will be asterisk's next to the team.
When our pre game picks are made, we will underline them. Correct picks will be bolded. Incorrect picks we will remove the underline.
Over Under total is next to bowl name, below which we will timeline our SU and ATS progress for this year. YTD can be found at the top of this post.
*** triple asterisk next to the over under indicates high confidence in our ATS pick (Lox). Since I am picking 41 games, I am taking any push (on the number) to be a win.
For updates, results and future picks, we will make separate but brief future posts, which will link back to this main post.
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions. This information is provided strictly for entertainment purposes, use at your own risk.
Notes
12/16/17 11AM - Flopped to Marshall +6
12/17/17 Noon - Flopped to FAU -17
12/28/17 10AM - Midpoint - Losses: W Kentucky, Arkansas St. are excusable flip a coin games. SMU (coach bailed), FIU (home game), Toledo (reading own press clippings), all mailed it in with no shows. Late SDSU TO in Army RZ, Black Knights earned the W.
12/30/17 9AM - 3/4 point - Losses: Northwestern - 1-5 on 4DC, 2:20 left, shoe size IQ coach goes on 4th and 1, from own 39. Failure results is not covering -6 and almost losing. Utah St - 4 missed FG's, fumble at NMS 1yd line lead to OT loss.
12/31/17 11AM - Pre New Years - Losses: With Bulldog D + run, +7, I smelled this, but MSU coach bailed, starting JR QB out. Frosh Thompson held his own 147 rush, 127 pass, 1 int. Louisville, QB Jackson 4 ints = -16pt diff; like Bridgewater overrated, Petrino bowls 1-3.
01/02/18 Noon - Losses: Pulling up lame in the stretch, not what we had in mind. Aside from Bama's Clemson bashing, the other four bowls were decided in the 4Q or OT wrought with reversals of, and acts of fortune. O fortune, fortune! All men call thee fickle.
01/08/18 5AM - Final pick made, public is all over the Tide, yet number is decreasing. Large smart money bets are taking the home Dawgs on money line and spread.
After 41 games, 20 favs and 21 dogs have covered, magical equilibrium? My favs are 17-11 and the dogs have been mui affettuoso at 10-3. See you next year.
A Happy, Healthy, Sane Holiday Season and Prosperous New Year to all.
Resources
CFP rankings from NCAA Bowl Site. Click game result for box score. Spread courtesy of VegasInsider. Matchup info from TeamRankings. Stats courtesy of the indispensable CFB Reference, from the makers of Pro Football Reference
*Note: All times Eastern
| BOWL | DATE | TIME | SITE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrate 52.5 *** SU (1-0) ATS (1-0) | Dec. 16 | 1200 | Atlanta, Ga. | N Carolina AT 21 (12-0)*** Grambling St 14 (11-1) +9.5 |
| New Orleans 62 SU (2-0) ATS (2-0) | Dec. 16 | 1300 | New Orleans, La. | North Texas 30 (9-4) Troy 50 (10-2) -5.5 |
| Cure 59.5 SU (2-1) ATS (2-1) | Dec. 16 | 1430 | Orlando, Fla. | Georgia State 27 (6-5) W. Kentucky 17 (6-6) -4 |
| Las Vegas 59.5 *** SU (3-1) ATS (3-1) | Dec. 16 | 1530 | Las Vegas, Nevada | Oregon 28 (7-5) Boise State 38 (10-3) +8.5 |
| New Mexico 58 SU (4-1) ATS (4-1) | Dec. 16 | 1530 | Albuquerque, N.M. | Marshall 31 (7-5) +6 Colorado State 28 (7-5) |
| Camellia 62.5 SU (4-2) ATS (4-2) | Dec. 16 | 2000 | Montgomery, Ala. | Middle Tenn St 35 (6-6) Arkansas St 30 (7-4) -3 |
| Boca Raton 61.5 SU (5-2) ATS (5-2) | Dec. 19 | 1900 | Boca Raton, Fla. | Akron 3 (7-6) FAU 50 (10-3) -17 |
| Frisco 70 SU (5-3) ATS (5-3) | Dec. 20 | 2000 | Frisco, Texas | LA Tech 51 (6-6) SMU 10 (7-5) -3.5 |
| Gasparilla 56 SU (6-3) ATS (5-4) | Dec. 21 | 2000 | St. Petersburg, Fla. | Temple 28 (6-6)*** FIU 3 (8-4) +8 |
Bahamas 57 ***
SU (7-3) ATS (6-4) | Dec. 22 | 1230 | Nassau, Bahamas | UAB 6 (8-4) Ohio 41 (8-4) -6 |
Famous Spud 45.5
SU (8-3) ATS (7-4) | Dec. 22 | 1600 | Boise, Idaho | Central Michigan 14 (8-4) Wyoming 37 (7-5) PK |
Birmingham 67 ***
SU (9-3) ATS (8-4) | Dec. 23 | 1200 | Birmingham, Ala. | Texas Tech 34 (6-6) USF 38 (9-2) -2 |
Armed Force 46 ***
SU (9-4) ATS (8-5) | Dec. 23 | 1530 | Fort Worth, Texas | Army 42 (9-3) San Diego State 35 (10-2) -5.5 |
Dollar General 63
SU (9-5) ATS (8-6) | Dec. 23 | 1900 | Mobile, Ala. | Appalachian State 34 (8-4) Toledo 0 (11-2) - 6.5 |
Hawai'i 50
SU (10-5) ATS (9-6) | Dec. 24 | 2030 | Honolulu, Hawai'i | Houston 27 (7-4) Fresno State 33 (9-4) +3 |
Heart Dallas 55.5
SU (11-5) ATS (10-6) | Dec. 26 | 1320 | Dallas, Texas | Utah 30 (6-6) -4 West Virginia 14 (7-5) |
Quick Lane 47.5
SU (12-5) ATS (11-6) | Dec. 26 | 1714 | Detroit, Mich. | Northern Illinois 14 (8-4) Duke 36 (6-6) -2.5 |
Cactus 63.5
SU (13-5) ATS (12-6) | Dec. 26 | 2200 | Phoenix, Ariz. | Kansas State 35 (7-5) -1 UCLA 17 (6-6) |
Independ. 49
SU (14-5) ATS (13-6) | Dec. 27 | 1330 | Shreveport, La. | Southern Miss 13 (8-4) Florida State 42 (6-6) -14 |
Pinstripe 46 ***
SU (15-5) ATS (14-6) | Dec. 27 | 1715 | Bronx, N.Y. | Boston College 20 (7-5) Iowa 27 (7-5) -1.5 |
Foster Farms 66.5
SU (16-5) ATS (15-6) | Dec. 27 | 2030 | Santa Clara, Calif. | Purdue 38 (6-6) +4.5 Arizona 35 (7-5) |
Texas 60.5
SU (17-5) ATS (16-6) | Dec. 27 | 2100 | Houston, Texas | Missouri 16 (7-5) Texas 33 (6-6) +3.5 |
Military 55 ***
SU (18-5) ATS (17-6) | Dec. 28 | 1330 | Annapolis, Md. | Virginia 7 (6-6) Navy 49 (6-5) +1.5 |
Camping Wld 63 ***
SU (19-5) ATS (18-6) | Dec. 28 | 1715 | Orlando, Fla. | Virginia Tech 21 (9-3) Oklahoma State 30 (9-3) -4 |
Alamo 49
SU (20-5) ATS (19-6) | Dec. 28 | 2100 | San Antonio, Texas | Stanford 37 (9-4) TCU 39 (10-3) -2 |
Holiday 45
SU (21-5) ATS (20-6) | Dec. 28 | 2100 | San Diego, Calif. | Michigan State 42 (9-3) +4.5 Washington State 17 (9-3) |
Belk 64.5
SU (22-5) ATS (21-6) | Dec. 29 | 1300 | Charlotte, N.C. | Texas A+M 52 (7-5) Wake Forest 55 (7-5) -2.5 |
Sun 59.5 ***
SU (23-5) ATS (22-6) | Dec. 29 | 1400 | El Paso, Texas | NC State 52 (8-4) -5 Arizona State 31 (7-5) |
Music City 51 ***
SU (24-5) ATS (22-7) | Dec. 29 | 1630 | Nashville, Tenn. | Kentucky 23 (7-5) Northwestern 24 (9-3) -6 |
Arizona 61
SU (24-6) ATS (22-8) | Dec. 29 | 1730 | Tucson, Ariz. | Utah State 20 (6-6) -2.5 New Mexico State 26 (6-6) |
Cotton 64.5 ***
SU (25-6) ATS (23-8) | Dec. 29 | 2030 | Arlington, Texas | USC 7 (11-2) Ohio State 24 (11-2) -6 |
Taxslayer 62
SU (25-7) ATS (23-9) | Dec. 30 | 1200 | Jacksonville, Fla. | Louisville 27 (8-4) -4.5 Mississippi State 31 (8-4) |
Liberty 66.5 ***
SU (26-7) ATS (24-9) | Dec. 30 | 1230 | Memphis, Tenn. | Iowa State 21 (7-5) +4.5 Memphis 20 (10-2) |
Fiesta 55
SU (27-7) ATS (25-9) | Dec. 30 | 1600 | Glendale, Ariz. | Washington 28 (10-2) Penn State 35 (10-2) -1.5 |
Orange 45 ***
SU (28-7) ATS (26-9) | Dec. 30 | 2000 | Miami Gardens, Fla. | Wisconsin 34 (12-1) -4 Miami 24 (10-2) |
Outback 43
SU (28-8) ATS (26-10) | Jan. 01 | 1200 | Tampa, Fla. | South Carolina 26 (8-4) Michigan 19 (8-4) -6.5 |
Peach 67
SU (28-9) ATS (26-11) | Jan. 01 | 1230 | Atlanta, Ga. | UCF 34 (12-0) Auburn 27 (10-3) -9.5 |
Citrus 51
SU (28-10) ATS (26-12) | Jan. 01 | 1300 | Orlando, Fla. | LSU 17 (9-3) PK Notre Dame 21 (9-3) |
Rose 60 ***
SU (28-11) ATS (26-13) | Jan. 01 | 1700 | Pasadena, Calif. | Oklahoma 48 (12-1) +3 Georgia 54 (12-1) |
Sugar 47 ***
SU (28-12) ATS (26-14) | Jan. 01 | 2045 | New Orleans, La. | Alabama 24 (11-1) Clemson 6 (12-1) +3.5 |
Championship 47
SU (28-13) ATS (27-14) | Jan. 08 | 2000 | Atlanta, Ga. | Alabama 26 (12-1) Georgia 23 (13-1) +5 |
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