Super Bowl LII: Correlation and Causation?
And now your moment of Presidents, politics, stock markets, causation, correlation and Super Bowl Zen....
1. Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, six more weeks of winter = Long /NG (natural gas)?
2. The Redskins Rule: Since 1936, a Redskin victory in their last regular season home game, prior to the election, had augured the incumbent party winning the election in 18 out of the last 20 elections for a 90% accuracy. On Oct 16, 2016 the Redskins beat the Eagles = Long live Democrats? With a Republican victory, now 18 of 21....
3. A Rising Alphabet: If the Dow rises from the end of November until Super Bowl game day, the team whose full name appears later in the alphabet will win = Patriots to win vs Eagles? Last week, the market started a correction so = Eagles to win vs Patriots? That one worked out I guess.
4. The SBI or Super Bowl Indicator: if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, this augurs a bear market. If a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the old NFL, or pre NFL/AFL merger wins, this augurs a bull market.
In January 2017, the Patriots (AFC) won = a bear market for 2017? Hardly, however the SBI has been correct 40 out of 50 times, as measured by the SP500 Index, for a success rate of 80%.
On Sunday, a Patriot (AFC) victory vs the Eagles would be bad for markets and investors? Go Eagles? So it's a bull market for 2018? Just like 2017, TBD.
Moral of the story? Correlation between disparate political and sporting events does not equal causation. Ahhhh, not so fast Joe, do they?
Faithful readers know my Nattering's better by now, and as promised we deliver on your moment of Zen... in tomorrow's conclusion Super Bowl LII: All Glory Is Fleeting?
1. Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, six more weeks of winter = Long /NG (natural gas)?
2. The Redskins Rule: Since 1936, a Redskin victory in their last regular season home game, prior to the election, had augured the incumbent party winning the election in 18 out of the last 20 elections for a 90% accuracy. On Oct 16, 2016 the Redskins beat the Eagles = Long live Democrats? With a Republican victory, now 18 of 21....
3. A Rising Alphabet: If the Dow rises from the end of November until Super Bowl game day, the team whose full name appears later in the alphabet will win = Patriots to win vs Eagles? Last week, the market started a correction so = Eagles to win vs Patriots? That one worked out I guess.
4. The SBI or Super Bowl Indicator: if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, this augurs a bear market. If a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the old NFL, or pre NFL/AFL merger wins, this augurs a bull market.
In January 2017, the Patriots (AFC) won = a bear market for 2017? Hardly, however the SBI has been correct 40 out of 50 times, as measured by the SP500 Index, for a success rate of 80%.
On Sunday, a Patriot (AFC) victory vs the Eagles would be bad for markets and investors? Go Eagles? So it's a bull market for 2018? Just like 2017, TBD.
Moral of the story? Correlation between disparate political and sporting events does not equal causation. Ahhhh, not so fast Joe, do they?
Faithful readers know my Nattering's better by now, and as promised we deliver on your moment of Zen... in tomorrow's conclusion Super Bowl LII: All Glory Is Fleeting?
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