2017 NFL Super Bowl Sunday Results Picks Against The Spread

SUN 6:30PM EST NBC

PHI +7 41 @ 33 NE DOUBLE LOCK - PHI TO WIN SU

 How did we do?  We celebrated the regular season finishing 5 games ahead of the nearest expert with a ATS record of 146-103-7; lox 48-28-2. In this tournament... 

Wildcard  2-2 SU; 0-3-1 ATS
Divisional 2-2 SU; 3-1 ATS; lox 1-1
Champ     1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS; lox 0-1
SB            1-0 SU; 1-0 ATS; lox 2-0

Finishing 6-5 SU; 5-5-1 ATS; lox 3-2; YTD ATS 151-108-8 with lox at 51-30-2. 
At number one on the web ATS and Lox, not bad for one who knows little?

 In this tournament favorites were 5-6 SU, with NE -14 as the only cover vs TEN ATS, making the dogs very lovable mutts at 10-1 ATS.

 The Minutemen had 1 fumble on the only sack of the game, missed a 26yd FG and PAT; while the Eagles had 1 interception, allowed no sacks, missed a PAT and went 0-2 on 2pt conversions. Other than that a record setting track meet broke out in the middle of a football game in Minneapolis: 

 PHI 538 net; 164 rush; 374 pass; 3DC 10-16; 4DC 2-2; RZC 2-4; TOP 34
NE  613 net; 113 rush; 500 pass; 3DC 5-10;   4DC 1-2; RZC 2-4; TOP 26

 In our pre game analysis and prognostication we brought up some talking points...
Can Belichick and Patricias defensive schemes generate any more pressure than the Falcons or Vikings? Against the NFL's #1 defense, in 34 pass plays the Eagle O-line did not allow a single QB hit nor pressure, and has not allowed a sack in this postseason.  
The Eagles O-line maintained their post season perfection in allowing no sacks. Foles was pressured on just 10 of his 43 dropbacks for a 23.2% pressure rate; for a clean pocket passer rating of 97.5, under pressure a solid 95, against the blitz a sterling 133.1. 

 The Eagles only donation to Uncle TOM (turn over margin) was with 5:14 remaining in the 1st half. With a 15-6 lead, the Eagles were rolling for another score, when this fluke play occurred, killing the drive and changing the tone of the game.

The Patriots subsequently mounted an 89 yard TD drive which after a 3rd and 6 failure, was kept alive by a non existent defensive holding call to narrow the gap at 15-12. 

 Pederson went 2-2 on 4th down conversions... with 0:38 remaining in the 1st half, the Eagles converted from the NE 2, with a trick play for the ages...

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This Sunday the most important injury is the same one we chronicled  here and here. Its not The Pharaohs hand the Pats need to worry about, it's his Waddle and Achilles heel.
Brady's Achilles heel was listed Week 11 through 16, then went unadvertised for the remainder of the season. As we pointed out, the resulting issues were obvious in game film, and in declining stats, affecting plant foot, follow through and release time. 

 Brady's lack of mobility was readily apparent on Sunday, as some bread and butter passes were errant, and can be observed in this wide open drop on a trick play, which could be the Pats big "what if" ?


In following the Al Attle's model, Pederson utilized his bench depth to wear down opponents by constantly rotating fresh players in. Resulting in a league high seven Eagle defensive players registering 20+ pressures. 
Against the Titans and Jags, the Pats O-line allowed only 25 total pressures on 96 plays, for a pressure rating of 26% with a pass blocking efficiency rating of 79.9. When kept clean vs the Eagles, Brady completed 19 of 30 pass attempts for 268 yards, 3 TD's and a passer rating of 125.4. 
In Brady's five SB victories he faced pressure on 28%; 39%; 29%; 31% and 30% of his dropbacks. In his two losses, he faced pressure on 43% and 47% of his dropbacks. Again the Eagles are #1 in pressures (41.3%).
As predicted, by wearing down the Pats O-line, the Eagle's were able to exert sustained pressure on a less than optimal Brady, with 19 total pressures on 49 passing plays yielding a 38.7% pressure rating, a Pats pass blocking efficiency rating of 70.4 and passer rating of 95.8.

 Despite the pressure on Brady, late in the 4th, due to the Eagles fluke 1st half turnover, the Patriots held a +1 TOM margin, which is usually a good harbinger (8-4 SB's; 24-7 Championship Games; 32 -11 overall or 75%).
Achilles effect or affect?  This season 50% of Brady drop backs took longer than 2.5 seconds. On such plays, the Eagles have allowed a passer rating of 61.3 (#2), pressured the QB on 62% (#1), and forced a turnover worthy play 7% of the time (#2).
Brady's lack of mobility and the constant duress finally paid dividends on the only sack of the game with 2:16 remaining. In a turnover worthy play, after 2.8 seconds in the pocket,  Brady was strip sacked by Brandon Graham and the Eagles recovered.
With release time analysis...



Finally we had Nattered... 
in playoff level of competition NE faced a combined +3.04 SRS, PHI a much heavier +13.38 while allowing only one TD. 
At the end of the day, the Eagles final margin of victory +8, somewhat reflected that 10 point differential.
a thrice discarded journeyman QB, left for dead on the island of misfit quarterbacks and toys. Who this Sunday will lead his team of barking and howling mutts to a convincing victory, earning both the Lombardi and SB LII MVP trophies a home in The City of Brotherly Love.
Indeed, those Beagles proved its not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

 Continuing our thematic salute to those lovable mutts from the City of Brotherly Love. In keeping with the George Clinton bow-wow-wow-yippie-yo-yippie-yeah theme... 

As a PRE Super Sunday dog, we posed the question that Eagles and their fans might be ASKIN the Minutemen and MSM,  Who Am I (What's My Name)? - Snoop Dogg feat. Dr. Dre

POST Super Sunday's clear victory, the Eagles and their fans might be SAYIN... That's My Name - Lil Bow Wow feat. Snoop Dogg

Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.

 One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.

Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.

For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.

Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference

Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats

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