2017 NFL Championship Weekend Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
A brief review of our Divisional Weekend picks and the results. After laying a 2-2 SU; 1-3 ATS Wildcard egg (counting the JAX -7 push), we hailed a Divisional Buffalo Right 7 Heaven at 3-1 ATS; 2-2 SU; with lox 1-1.
We celebrated our regular season finishing 5 games ahead of the nearest expert with a record of 146-103-7; lox 48-28-2. Adjusting for the push, post season 3-4-1 ATS; 4-4 SU, YTD 149-107-8 with lox at 49-29-2.
At 6-2 ATS post season, the only one who can catch us at 147-109-7 is the respectable Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun. Hangin by a 2 game thread with 3 games left, what's new Pussycat?
Uncle Tom?
So far in this playoff tournament; Uncle TOM (Turn Over Margin): Wildcard losers: KC +2; LAR -2; BUF -2; CAR +1. Winners: TEN -2; ATL +2; JAX +2; NOR -1. Divisional losers: ATL +2; TEN 0; PIT -2; NOR -1. Winners: PHI -2; NE 0; JAX +2; MIN +1.
Those who turn the ball over finish outside. What stands out? Contrarian winners with a -2 TOM: PHI at home despite a 70% probability of losing, and TEN on the road with a 92% probability of losing. In the following round, TEN was summarily dismissed by NE.
The past fate of home teams winning with -2 TOM, such as PHI? Out of those 13 home teams which won with -2 TOM, 6 advanced to the SB: 73 MIA; 75 PIT; 86 DEN; 05 SEA; 11 NE; 13 DEN; of which only 2 won: 73 MIA, 75 PIT, while the other 7 lost their next game.
Seeds?
This week, in the NFC #1 PHI vs #2 MIN, the AFC #1 NE vs #3 JAX. Three of the final four have never won a Super Bowl, the Norsemen 0-4, Eagles 0-1, Minutemen 5-4, and JAX has never been to one.
Since seeding began in 1975, #1 seed's appearing in the Super Bowl: NFC 24; AFC 23. Both #1 seeds have played against each other 12 times out of the 41 seeded tournaments. A 71% chance that at least one of the two #1 seeds loses?
Last but not least... in this tournament the dogs are 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS with NE being the only favorite to cover.
Achilles Heel?
Along those lines, shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West...
This week's theme derives from Greek mythology, but for our purposes, an Achilles' heel is a weakness or point of vulnerability, in spite of overall strength, which can lead to downfall. Do any of these final four have an Achilles heel? Our picks are BOLD and underlined.
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more... Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps... That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
SUN 3:05PM EST CBS
JAX +10.5 @ NE In the Patriots 14th appearance and 7th consecutive AFC Title game, their offense #2 pts, #1 yds, hosts the NFL's #2 defense. Coaching? The Master, McDaniels and Patricia a slight lean over Marrone. Yes slight, we do some splanin later Lucy.
Setting the table, 1st down yds; %1stD:
O NE 6.33 23.6%; JAX 5.51 20.6%
D JAX 5.21 19.0%; NE 6.13 23.8%
Holding the rock: TOP, Plys, Yds, Pts.
O NE 4, 1, 1, 1 JAX 17, 18, 16, 13
D JAX 1, 2, 1, 1 NE 22, 30, 30, 6
TOM NE +6, JAX +10
Converting 3DC; Closing RZC.
O NE 10 JAX 20; NE 5 JAX 2
D JAX 4 NE 21; JAX 2 NE 4
Saxonville Achilles heel? Perhaps #21 run yd D? Since Wk9 post Dareus, rush D8, on 1st downs 5.13 21.3%. Should their #1 running game fail, the oft maligned QB and #17 passing game? Can the Pats sack Bortles 8 times?
The Shags lost 6 games this year, note the TO's: NYJ 2, LAR (punt block and KO ret for TD), ARZ 3, SF 3 and TEN twice 3, 4. Common point of vulnerability? Aside from the Ram tilt, getting behind and Bortles throwing 10 of his 13 int's. Was it pressure? The Shags O-line has only allowed 24 sacks.
The Minutemen's Achilles heel? Their D? 20 rush, 30 pass, 29 yds, However, bend but don't break, 5 pts. Since Wk5 5.30 19.5% on 1st downs, as the Patriots defense has allowed the fewest pts in the NFL. How much better has Patricia's D gotten? Closer to the Jags?
Jags last 4 (@SF, @TEN, BUF, @PIT) 1st down
5.23 25.6%; pass 7.3 avg, 60% comp; rating 81, rush 66 att 3.89 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.40 28.9%; pass 5.6 avg, 57% comp; rating 74, rush 55 att 3.51 yds.
Pats last 4 (@PIT, BUF, NYJ, TEN) 1st down
5.28 19.4%; pass 9.0 avg, 59% comp; rating 96, rush 47 att 3.36 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.83 29.4%; pass 6.5 avg, 60% comp; rating 82, rush 42 att 4.26 yds.
The Pats lost 3 games this year, KC, CAR, MIA (no Gronk), and would have lost to HOU and PIT, had TO's and questionable play calling not bailed them out. Common point of vulnerability? All passed for 240+, while running for 100+ yds, and won TOP or # of plays (CAR).
Click your heels? Can the Shags run for 100+ on the Pats? Yes. Can the Shags win TOP or play#? Perhaps. Concomitant can they pass 240+? Perhaps, as they did so in 6 of their wins this year, with only 1 close LAC 20-17.
With a stout D, if the Shags run for 120+, they may not need to pass... Why? Many pundits took the bait on Brady's "hand" problem, which IMHO is a ruse to distract. All successful Shag opponents possessed a mobile QB, with a rolling pocket.
Many pundits also parroted that Brady's Wk12 left Achilles heel injury was not serious, we beg to differ as the stats say otherwise. Limited mobility affected his plant foot and follow through, resulting in decreased accuracy viz. 6 of his 8 ints, all on 3rd down, and a substantial drop off in performance seen below.
Success rates and play selection on 3rd down indicate less effective passing:
Wk1-11 29 rushes, 10 1st downs, 34% rate; 103 passes, 50 1st downs, 49% rate
Since 11 18 rushes, 11 1st downs, 61% rate; 67 passes, 22 1st downs, 33% rate
Brady's stats verify a drop off in passing efficiency and effectiveness:
Wk 1-11 69% comp 8.3ypa 22TD-2int 55% success, #1 with 111 rating
Since 11 63% comp 7.0ypa 13TD-6int 50% success #14 with 90.9 rating
With 3rd down, or money time getting outright ugly:
Wk 1-11 65% comp 8.1ypa 7TD-0int 48% success, 6 sacks, rating 114
Since 11 48% comp 5.8ypa 3TD-6int 34% success, 7 sacks, rating 44.2
A picture is worth a thousand words, 3rd down target zone ratings left Wk1 -11; right since Wk 11, over a cliff and not a pretty picture.
Concomitant... When OL Cannon and Mason went down, Waddle came in at RT. Wk12 Waddle went down, with Fleming at RT Wk13-17, pass ratings tanked, especially on 3rd down. Waddle's 1st game back vs the Titans, leaving early 3Q with a knee injury, after taking 57% of the snaps.
Terrific Tom was noticeably ginger on his Achilles heel last week, with several missed throws, some one hopping into the turf. Oh Brady!!! A review of your protege's game film from Wk16, and a review of your Super Bowl XLII and XLVI losses to Tom Coughlin's Gmen is recommended.
Why the latter? Said ex NYG coach is a very active EVP of the Shags who occupies a coaching booth. In which, contrary to popular belief the 71 year old defensive guru who is a keen observer of the game, is doing anything but filling out Sudoku cards. The Jag's 55 sack pass rush does not rely on zone blitzing, just a Purple People Eater or Fearsome Foursome front. Allowing 35 sacks, the Pats O-line will be tested.
Do not be deceived by the 3rd down stats, as the Pats with Gronk, make plenty of hay on 1st and 2nd down. However, if that Achilles and/or Waddle is less than 100%, and/or Fleming must take snaps, what happens if the Pats get stuck in 3rd? If so, the Pharaoh could once again be in for a very long day, on Mr. Coughlin's nickle or dime?
Our prognostication? If you thought the Jags wins at Heinz were shockers, get your popcorn ready and pick your seat, as history could repeat. A Pats redux of last week, trailing the Titans 7-0 after Q1, then waking up, would not be advisable, as they have to make like the 9ers did.
To contain the Shag's heat, lacking the mobility of JimmyG, Brady's release on short routes must be quicker than you can say, Joe Namath. Scoring early and often, the Pats must utilize Gronk and RB speed out of the backfield, get the Shags to play catch the rabbit, and force Bortles into making aerial miscues.Otherwise, a redux of what the Shags did to the Riveters, twice this year, will ensue.
Last week sans garbage time, the -14 favored Pats cruised 35-7 past a Titans team which beat the Shags twice. Meanwhile the Shags, sans TO's, garbage time and one off 4thD TD bombs, would have prevailed 31-24 for a 2nd win at Steel Town, against a team which had the Pats beat. Again, "We Play To Win" forgets, you play sloppy or stupid, you finish outside, Joe.
With 65% of the public at a 1.5 ratio (highest this week) all over the Minutemen, huge amounts of "smart money" on the Jags has moved the line in contrarian fashion from -10.5 (Sportbet) down to seeming bargain -7. In any event, regardless of the perceived QB valuations, coaching and team playoff experience, with these two defenses, double digit home chalk seems asking a bit much in this tilt.
SUN 6:40PM EST FOX
MIN -2.5 @ PHI The -2 TOM winning Eagles 4 defense hosts the NFL's 1 defense. Coaching, Zimmer's D over Pederson's O.
Setting the table, 1st down yds; %1stD:
O PHI 5.25 23.3%; MIN 4.78 16.7%
D MIN 4.84 17.8%; PHI 4.27 17.8%
Holding the rock: TOP, Plys, Yds, Pts.
O PHI 9, 13, 10, 6 MIN 6, 10, 9, 7
D MIN 6, 1, 4, 2 PHI 3, 5, 5, 3
TOM PHI +11, MIN +5
Converting 3DC; Closing RZC.
O PHI 8 MIN 3; PHI 1 MIN 9
D MIN 1 PHI 3; MIN 3 PHI 20
Norsemen Achilles heel? The Vikes lost 3 games, TO's noted: PIT 1; DET 3; CAR 3. In all 3 losses, TO's and TOP were in favor of their opponent. The Panther game was the 3rd consecutive road game, coming off W's @CLE, @WAS, LAR, @DET, @ATL.
Setting the table? Since C/LG Easton went down, RT Remmers moved to Easton's LG post, while Hill took RT. Last three games: 4.23 16.3%, no sacks with 54 run att. for 3.28 avg per carry on 1st down, while on 2nd down 35 att. for 3.74 avg.
A bit of a drop from Wk1-14 indicating an offensive line problem? Or opponents sold out and dared Keenum to pass? 1stD: 40 att, 5.5 avg, 63% comp; rating 75. Since Wk14 the Vikes rushing success at 48% - 11th, explosive passing 10% - 8th and runs 10% - 9th were stable.
Given that dare from opposing defenses, passing success fell from 49% to 42%, going from 3rd to 17th. Common point of vulnerability? More pressure due to O-line issues? Yet, those daring Keenum on 2nd down paid dearly; 41 att, 7.8 avg, 79% comp; rating 125 and 13 1st downs. The Vikes have allowed only 27 sacks, while making 37.
Bird of Prey Achilles heel? 1D vs run with the least attempts, 17 vs the pass. Still untested as the Falcons ran only 20 times, averaging a healthy 4.3 per carry. Oddly enough, mostly at center and right with higher avg gains to the left, as Freeman's 10 trys avg under 1yd.
The Eagles lost 3 games, TO's noted: KC 2, SEA 2, DAL 2, the latter being a bye week. In all cases, TO's killed them. PHI would have lost to CAR (2 freak tip picks set up 2 cheap TD's) and to NYG twice were it not for TO's. Common point of vulnerability?
Excepting the 2nd NYG tilt, the Eagles O-line allowed 6, 3, 3, 3 and 3 sacks respectively, 3+ being the magic number. After Wk7, LT Vaitai struggled allowing 5 or more pressures per game. Opponents pass rush pressure registered 15 1st down sacks from the left side, out of 36 total sacks allowed on the year.
A brief review of our Divisional Weekend picks and the results. After laying a 2-2 SU; 1-3 ATS Wildcard egg (counting the JAX -7 push), we hailed a Divisional Buffalo Right 7 Heaven at 3-1 ATS; 2-2 SU; with lox 1-1.
We celebrated our regular season finishing 5 games ahead of the nearest expert with a record of 146-103-7; lox 48-28-2. Adjusting for the push, post season 3-4-1 ATS; 4-4 SU, YTD 149-107-8 with lox at 49-29-2.
At 6-2 ATS post season, the only one who can catch us at 147-109-7 is the respectable Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun. Hangin by a 2 game thread with 3 games left, what's new Pussycat?
Uncle Tom?
So far in this playoff tournament; Uncle TOM (Turn Over Margin): Wildcard losers: KC +2; LAR -2; BUF -2; CAR +1. Winners: TEN -2; ATL +2; JAX +2; NOR -1. Divisional losers: ATL +2; TEN 0; PIT -2; NOR -1. Winners: PHI -2; NE 0; JAX +2; MIN +1.
Those who turn the ball over finish outside. What stands out? Contrarian winners with a -2 TOM: PHI at home despite a 70% probability of losing, and TEN on the road with a 92% probability of losing. In the following round, TEN was summarily dismissed by NE.
The past fate of home teams winning with -2 TOM, such as PHI? Out of those 13 home teams which won with -2 TOM, 6 advanced to the SB: 73 MIA; 75 PIT; 86 DEN; 05 SEA; 11 NE; 13 DEN; of which only 2 won: 73 MIA, 75 PIT, while the other 7 lost their next game.
Seeds?
This week, in the NFC #1 PHI vs #2 MIN, the AFC #1 NE vs #3 JAX. Three of the final four have never won a Super Bowl, the Norsemen 0-4, Eagles 0-1, Minutemen 5-4, and JAX has never been to one.
Since seeding began in 1975, #1 seed's appearing in the Super Bowl: NFC 24; AFC 23. Both #1 seeds have played against each other 12 times out of the 41 seeded tournaments. A 71% chance that at least one of the two #1 seeds loses?
Last but not least... in this tournament the dogs are 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS with NE being the only favorite to cover.
Achilles Heel?
Along those lines, shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West...
This week's theme derives from Greek mythology, but for our purposes, an Achilles' heel is a weakness or point of vulnerability, in spite of overall strength, which can lead to downfall. Do any of these final four have an Achilles heel? Our picks are BOLD and underlined.
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more... Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps... That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
SUN 3:05PM EST CBS
JAX +10.5 @ NE In the Patriots 14th appearance and 7th consecutive AFC Title game, their offense #2 pts, #1 yds, hosts the NFL's #2 defense. Coaching? The Master, McDaniels and Patricia a slight lean over Marrone. Yes slight, we do some splanin later Lucy.
Setting the table, 1st down yds; %1stD:
O NE 6.33 23.6%; JAX 5.51 20.6%
D JAX 5.21 19.0%; NE 6.13 23.8%
Holding the rock: TOP, Plys, Yds, Pts.
O NE 4, 1, 1, 1 JAX 17, 18, 16, 13
D JAX 1, 2, 1, 1 NE 22, 30, 30, 6
TOM NE +6, JAX +10
Converting 3DC; Closing RZC.
O NE 10 JAX 20; NE 5 JAX 2
D JAX 4 NE 21; JAX 2 NE 4
Saxonville Achilles heel? Perhaps #21 run yd D? Since Wk9 post Dareus, rush D8, on 1st downs 5.13 21.3%. Should their #1 running game fail, the oft maligned QB and #17 passing game? Can the Pats sack Bortles 8 times?
The Shags lost 6 games this year, note the TO's: NYJ 2, LAR (punt block and KO ret for TD), ARZ 3, SF 3 and TEN twice 3, 4. Common point of vulnerability? Aside from the Ram tilt, getting behind and Bortles throwing 10 of his 13 int's. Was it pressure? The Shags O-line has only allowed 24 sacks.
The Minutemen's Achilles heel? Their D? 20 rush, 30 pass, 29 yds, However, bend but don't break, 5 pts. Since Wk5 5.30 19.5% on 1st downs, as the Patriots defense has allowed the fewest pts in the NFL. How much better has Patricia's D gotten? Closer to the Jags?
Jags last 4 (@SF, @TEN, BUF, @PIT) 1st down
5.23 25.6%; pass 7.3 avg, 60% comp; rating 81, rush 66 att 3.89 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.40 28.9%; pass 5.6 avg, 57% comp; rating 74, rush 55 att 3.51 yds.
Pats last 4 (@PIT, BUF, NYJ, TEN) 1st down
5.28 19.4%; pass 9.0 avg, 59% comp; rating 96, rush 47 att 3.36 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.83 29.4%; pass 6.5 avg, 60% comp; rating 82, rush 42 att 4.26 yds.
The Pats lost 3 games this year, KC, CAR, MIA (no Gronk), and would have lost to HOU and PIT, had TO's and questionable play calling not bailed them out. Common point of vulnerability? All passed for 240+, while running for 100+ yds, and won TOP or # of plays (CAR).
Click your heels? Can the Shags run for 100+ on the Pats? Yes. Can the Shags win TOP or play#? Perhaps. Concomitant can they pass 240+? Perhaps, as they did so in 6 of their wins this year, with only 1 close LAC 20-17.
With a stout D, if the Shags run for 120+, they may not need to pass... Why? Many pundits took the bait on Brady's "hand" problem, which IMHO is a ruse to distract. All successful Shag opponents possessed a mobile QB, with a rolling pocket.
Many pundits also parroted that Brady's Wk12 left Achilles heel injury was not serious, we beg to differ as the stats say otherwise. Limited mobility affected his plant foot and follow through, resulting in decreased accuracy viz. 6 of his 8 ints, all on 3rd down, and a substantial drop off in performance seen below.
Success rates and play selection on 3rd down indicate less effective passing:
Wk1-11 29 rushes, 10 1st downs, 34% rate; 103 passes, 50 1st downs, 49% rate
Since 11 18 rushes, 11 1st downs, 61% rate; 67 passes, 22 1st downs, 33% rate
Brady's stats verify a drop off in passing efficiency and effectiveness:
Wk 1-11 69% comp 8.3ypa 22TD-2int 55% success, #1 with 111 rating
Since 11 63% comp 7.0ypa 13TD-6int 50% success #14 with 90.9 rating
With 3rd down, or money time getting outright ugly:
Wk 1-11 65% comp 8.1ypa 7TD-0int 48% success, 6 sacks, rating 114
Since 11 48% comp 5.8ypa 3TD-6int 34% success, 7 sacks, rating 44.2
A picture is worth a thousand words, 3rd down target zone ratings left Wk1 -11; right since Wk 11, over a cliff and not a pretty picture.
Concomitant... When OL Cannon and Mason went down, Waddle came in at RT. Wk12 Waddle went down, with Fleming at RT Wk13-17, pass ratings tanked, especially on 3rd down. Waddle's 1st game back vs the Titans, leaving early 3Q with a knee injury, after taking 57% of the snaps.
Terrific Tom was noticeably ginger on his Achilles heel last week, with several missed throws, some one hopping into the turf. Oh Brady!!! A review of your protege's game film from Wk16, and a review of your Super Bowl XLII and XLVI losses to Tom Coughlin's Gmen is recommended.
Why the latter? Said ex NYG coach is a very active EVP of the Shags who occupies a coaching booth. In which, contrary to popular belief the 71 year old defensive guru who is a keen observer of the game, is doing anything but filling out Sudoku cards. The Jag's 55 sack pass rush does not rely on zone blitzing, just a Purple People Eater or Fearsome Foursome front. Allowing 35 sacks, the Pats O-line will be tested.
Do not be deceived by the 3rd down stats, as the Pats with Gronk, make plenty of hay on 1st and 2nd down. However, if that Achilles and/or Waddle is less than 100%, and/or Fleming must take snaps, what happens if the Pats get stuck in 3rd? If so, the Pharaoh could once again be in for a very long day, on Mr. Coughlin's nickle or dime?
Our prognostication? If you thought the Jags wins at Heinz were shockers, get your popcorn ready and pick your seat, as history could repeat. A Pats redux of last week, trailing the Titans 7-0 after Q1, then waking up, would not be advisable, as they have to make like the 9ers did.
To contain the Shag's heat, lacking the mobility of JimmyG, Brady's release on short routes must be quicker than you can say, Joe Namath. Scoring early and often, the Pats must utilize Gronk and RB speed out of the backfield, get the Shags to play catch the rabbit, and force Bortles into making aerial miscues.Otherwise, a redux of what the Shags did to the Riveters, twice this year, will ensue.
Last week sans garbage time, the -14 favored Pats cruised 35-7 past a Titans team which beat the Shags twice. Meanwhile the Shags, sans TO's, garbage time and one off 4thD TD bombs, would have prevailed 31-24 for a 2nd win at Steel Town, against a team which had the Pats beat. Again, "We Play To Win" forgets, you play sloppy or stupid, you finish outside, Joe.
With 65% of the public at a 1.5 ratio (highest this week) all over the Minutemen, huge amounts of "smart money" on the Jags has moved the line in contrarian fashion from -10.5 (Sportbet) down to seeming bargain -7. In any event, regardless of the perceived QB valuations, coaching and team playoff experience, with these two defenses, double digit home chalk seems asking a bit much in this tilt.
SUN 6:40PM EST FOX
MIN -2.5 @ PHI The -2 TOM winning Eagles 4 defense hosts the NFL's 1 defense. Coaching, Zimmer's D over Pederson's O.
Setting the table, 1st down yds; %1stD:
O PHI 5.25 23.3%; MIN 4.78 16.7%
D MIN 4.84 17.8%; PHI 4.27 17.8%
Holding the rock: TOP, Plys, Yds, Pts.
O PHI 9, 13, 10, 6 MIN 6, 10, 9, 7
D MIN 6, 1, 4, 2 PHI 3, 5, 5, 3
TOM PHI +11, MIN +5
Converting 3DC; Closing RZC.
O PHI 8 MIN 3; PHI 1 MIN 9
D MIN 1 PHI 3; MIN 3 PHI 20
Norsemen Achilles heel? The Vikes lost 3 games, TO's noted: PIT 1; DET 3; CAR 3. In all 3 losses, TO's and TOP were in favor of their opponent. The Panther game was the 3rd consecutive road game, coming off W's @CLE, @WAS, LAR, @DET, @ATL.
Setting the table? Since C/LG Easton went down, RT Remmers moved to Easton's LG post, while Hill took RT. Last three games: 4.23 16.3%, no sacks with 54 run att. for 3.28 avg per carry on 1st down, while on 2nd down 35 att. for 3.74 avg.
A bit of a drop from Wk1-14 indicating an offensive line problem? Or opponents sold out and dared Keenum to pass? 1stD: 40 att, 5.5 avg, 63% comp; rating 75. Since Wk14 the Vikes rushing success at 48% - 11th, explosive passing 10% - 8th and runs 10% - 9th were stable.
Given that dare from opposing defenses, passing success fell from 49% to 42%, going from 3rd to 17th. Common point of vulnerability? More pressure due to O-line issues? Yet, those daring Keenum on 2nd down paid dearly; 41 att, 7.8 avg, 79% comp; rating 125 and 13 1st downs. The Vikes have allowed only 27 sacks, while making 37.
Bird of Prey Achilles heel? 1D vs run with the least attempts, 17 vs the pass. Still untested as the Falcons ran only 20 times, averaging a healthy 4.3 per carry. Oddly enough, mostly at center and right with higher avg gains to the left, as Freeman's 10 trys avg under 1yd.
The Eagles lost 3 games, TO's noted: KC 2, SEA 2, DAL 2, the latter being a bye week. In all cases, TO's killed them. PHI would have lost to CAR (2 freak tip picks set up 2 cheap TD's) and to NYG twice were it not for TO's. Common point of vulnerability?
Excepting the 2nd NYG tilt, the Eagles O-line allowed 6, 3, 3, 3 and 3 sacks respectively, 3+ being the magic number. After Wk7, LT Vaitai struggled allowing 5 or more pressures per game. Opponents pass rush pressure registered 15 1st down sacks from the left side, out of 36 total sacks allowed on the year.
Last week, ATL LE Clayborn was neutralized, this week Griffen? TBD. Since Wk14 the Eagles explosive passing fell 23rd to 30th, exp. running 1st to 12th, run game success down from 43 to 36%, now ranking 31st in the NFL. Rush 1stD 2.48 avg. 2ndD: 3.52 avg. Similar to the Vikes, this can be attributed to O-line issues and not setting the table.
Foles: 4.19yds 19.2%; Vs ATL 4.07 20.7%, indicating a persistent offensive line problem. Much like Keenum, opponents sell out and dare Foles on 1st down: 31 att, 5.9 avg, 61% comp; rating 64 and 8 1st downs. Stepping up on 2nd down: 25 att, 7.0 avg, 76% comp; rating 91 and 7 1st downs.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, opponent run success vs the Eagle stop unit up from 40 to 46% - declining 4th to 20th, with explosive passes up from 6 to 9% - 4th to 19th, and exp. runs up from 11 to 14% - 8th to 27th respectively. Eagle sacks YTD 38.
What has the D done lately? Eagle opponents wk1-14, 1st down...
4.13 17.8%; pass 5.8 avg, 60% comp; rating 81, rush 149 att 3.19 yds. Last 4...
4.68 17.9%; pass 6.5 avg, 60% comp, rating 87, rush 67 att 3.99 yds. Last 4, dwn 2-3...
5.58 30.4%; pass 6.5 avg, 61% comp, rating 84, rush 40 att 4.03 yds.
(@NYG; OAK; DAL; ATL)
Viking opponents wk1-14, 1st down...
5.18 18.9%; pass 7.4 avg, 66% comp; rating 93, rush 174 att 3.79 yds. Last 4...
3.64 14.1%; pass 5.1 avg, 56% comp; rating 60, rush 47 att 2.45 yds. Last 4, dwn 2-3...
4.52 26.8%; pass 5.2 avg, 52% comp; rating 60, rush 35 att 4.40 yds.
(CIN; @GB, CHI, NOR)
Our prognostication? Both teams have O-line issues, and a QB that opposing D's have bet on the come, cannot pass. Does anyone remember 1990 and Hos, aka Jeff Hostetler? I'm sure 9er and Bills fans do, as those 3rd down scrambles, and solid D, did both in.
If last weeks 1st half shutout Vikings D shows up, the Eagles Foles will be forced to the air and despite LT Vaitai's issues, have to deliver. Likewise, if last weeks 2nd half shutout Eagles D who can stop the run show up, Keenum will be forced to the air and despite RT Rashod Hill's issues, have to deliver.
The question is, who will blink or crack under pressure first, and most often? The Eagles have the weather, home field, their D and a huge dog chip on their shoulders. Had they not made two turnovers last week, the final score might have been 15-0. Likewise, had the Norsemen not set Brees up with 14 quick easy 2nd half points, their final score might have been 23-10.
Strength of schedule, the motivation to host the Super Bowl as a home team, and the momentum from last weeks Stone Skol Stunner emotional win, might lead one to pick the Vikes as a team of destiny? For the 2nd straight week, 55% spread, 58% money line, of the public is on Philly moving the line from PHI +3.5 to +2.5 at CG Technology (Venetian). Large flows of money can be seen in the ML vig moving from +155 to +125, and spread vig moving an equal 30 ticks from +100 to -130 on the dog mask wearing home mutts, as the line moves slowly.
Consider tonight's offering, the Vikes who beat ATL in ATL, just put away a better team than ATL, the Brees, not Foles led Saints, and yet are laying near same road chalk as ATL. For the 1st 14 wks, the Eagles D lived the good life with Wentz. Since then, the Vikings D is on the rise while the Eagles is missing Wentz. All of the above, leans me towards the Norsemen.
What no LOCK? Alright, alright, we will take a stab at UNDER 39.5 on the NFC tilt.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Foles: 4.19yds 19.2%; Vs ATL 4.07 20.7%, indicating a persistent offensive line problem. Much like Keenum, opponents sell out and dare Foles on 1st down: 31 att, 5.9 avg, 61% comp; rating 64 and 8 1st downs. Stepping up on 2nd down: 25 att, 7.0 avg, 76% comp; rating 91 and 7 1st downs.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, opponent run success vs the Eagle stop unit up from 40 to 46% - declining 4th to 20th, with explosive passes up from 6 to 9% - 4th to 19th, and exp. runs up from 11 to 14% - 8th to 27th respectively. Eagle sacks YTD 38.
What has the D done lately? Eagle opponents wk1-14, 1st down...
4.13 17.8%; pass 5.8 avg, 60% comp; rating 81, rush 149 att 3.19 yds. Last 4...
4.68 17.9%; pass 6.5 avg, 60% comp, rating 87, rush 67 att 3.99 yds. Last 4, dwn 2-3...
5.58 30.4%; pass 6.5 avg, 61% comp, rating 84, rush 40 att 4.03 yds.
(@NYG; OAK; DAL; ATL)
Viking opponents wk1-14, 1st down...
5.18 18.9%; pass 7.4 avg, 66% comp; rating 93, rush 174 att 3.79 yds. Last 4...
3.64 14.1%; pass 5.1 avg, 56% comp; rating 60, rush 47 att 2.45 yds. Last 4, dwn 2-3...
4.52 26.8%; pass 5.2 avg, 52% comp; rating 60, rush 35 att 4.40 yds.
(CIN; @GB, CHI, NOR)
Our prognostication? Both teams have O-line issues, and a QB that opposing D's have bet on the come, cannot pass. Does anyone remember 1990 and Hos, aka Jeff Hostetler? I'm sure 9er and Bills fans do, as those 3rd down scrambles, and solid D, did both in.
If last weeks 1st half shutout Vikings D shows up, the Eagles Foles will be forced to the air and despite LT Vaitai's issues, have to deliver. Likewise, if last weeks 2nd half shutout Eagles D who can stop the run show up, Keenum will be forced to the air and despite RT Rashod Hill's issues, have to deliver.
The question is, who will blink or crack under pressure first, and most often? The Eagles have the weather, home field, their D and a huge dog chip on their shoulders. Had they not made two turnovers last week, the final score might have been 15-0. Likewise, had the Norsemen not set Brees up with 14 quick easy 2nd half points, their final score might have been 23-10.
Strength of schedule, the motivation to host the Super Bowl as a home team, and the momentum from last weeks Stone Skol Stunner emotional win, might lead one to pick the Vikes as a team of destiny? For the 2nd straight week, 55% spread, 58% money line, of the public is on Philly moving the line from PHI +3.5 to +2.5 at CG Technology (Venetian). Large flows of money can be seen in the ML vig moving from +155 to +125, and spread vig moving an equal 30 ticks from +100 to -130 on the dog mask wearing home mutts, as the line moves slowly.
Consider tonight's offering, the Vikes who beat ATL in ATL, just put away a better team than ATL, the Brees, not Foles led Saints, and yet are laying near same road chalk as ATL. For the 1st 14 wks, the Eagles D lived the good life with Wentz. Since then, the Vikings D is on the rise while the Eagles is missing Wentz. All of the above, leans me towards the Norsemen.
What no LOCK? Alright, alright, we will take a stab at UNDER 39.5 on the NFC tilt.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
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