Common Sense and The Steel Curtain?
Grasping our hands firmly on our head and Nattering, "What the hell are they thinking, why would they ever throw the ball in that situation?" Stupid is as stupid does comes to mind, along with this...
Uncle TOM?
In the playoffs, home teams with -2 TOM (Turn Over Margin): lose 70% of the time, on any field 83% of the time, and naturally road teams lose 92% of the time, imagine how lucky the Titans were in KC? But it gets better...
Escaping Uncle TOM -2 for multiple teams in the same playoff is very rare, so rare that it has only happened in six out of 47 tournaments.
Once another team has already fallen into the -2 TOM hole and advanced in the tournament, like the Titans did last week, subsequent teams that fall in, like the Eagles this past Sunday against the Falcons, lose a collective 94.5% of the time.
So Eagles fans should count the their blessings, thank their defense, and coaching tendencies lacking common sense...
The Thomas Paine of Common Sense?
With 1:05 remaining and a 1st and goal at the Eagle nine, rather than attempt to run the ball, Quinn called four straight passes, ending in the Falcons 4th down goal to goal 2018 NFC Championship failure.
In the same goal to goal situation, with the game and season on the line, at least Jim Harbaugh tried to run once on 1st down, before calling three straight passes in the 9ers SBXLVII failure.
More infamous, with a Beast running back, with 0:25 on the clock and a time out, Pete Carroll elected to pass on 2nd down from the Pats 2 yard line, which was promptly picked off in the Seahawks SBXLIX failure.
All of these situations were in either 3rd or 4th down and a cinder block to go. The Payton and Zimmer calls resulted in killing promising drives on the opponents side of the field, result no points and a punt.
The Tomlin play calls resulted in not one, but two drive killing fourth down failures, which along with their -2 TOM, ended the Steeler's season in failure.
Credit the above play calling to situational tendencies, fostered by a generic coaching environment, beholden to cockeyed analytics based in false doctrine, and lacking in imagination and plain old common sense viz. passing when you should be running.
Whether you have a yard, or two, or a cinder block to go... 99 times out of 100, you should line up with the QB under center, hard count, no bites, silent count - tap inside the thigh, lunge forward ala Bart Starr in the 67 NFL Championship Ice Bowl. End of story.
If you have to get more, try signing the 2nd coming of Larry Csonka or Sam "The Bam" Cunningham. If your team can't lunge forward six feet or less, on a QB sneak, or send a back through or over the line, time to hang it up and try another sport.
Worse yet, if your offense lines up in a shotgun, then runs East West, rather than North South, or idiotically throws the ball, you have either lost your mind or been sold a bag of magic beans by some analytic bean counter, who knows not what they do.
Woody Hayes aphorism needs updating, as there are FOUR bad things that can happen when you voluntarily LOSE CONTROL of the ball by putting it in the air or passing: incomplete (ask Quinn and Harbaugh), OR batted - picked (ask Carroll)....
OR.... your QB gets sacked resulting in a loss of yardage which puts you out of field goal range (ask Zimmer and Payton), OR worse yet, a lost fumble, OR if on 4th down ends the drive with a turnover on downs (ask Tomlin, twice over).
What about an offensive penalty? Due to the rule changes and nature of the NFL, holding which is the most frequently called penalty, is probably called half as often while passing, as opposed to running. Just guessin and putting away the coaches soapbox now.
The Steel Curtain?
Did you know? The 1975 SB Champion Steelers are the only team to ever overcome Uncle TOM -2 TWICE in the same playoff tournament, in both the 1975 Divisional and Title Game, and live to talk about it by winning SB X.
Did you know? In Super Bowls, -2 TOM teams are 1-6 collectively with the 1979 SB Champion Steelers being the only team to overcome this handicap to win SB XIV. In both the above exceptions to the rule of thumb, what made the difference?
From the historical evidence it is apparent that only an extremely good defense can overcome Uncle TOM -2 or greater. So perhaps that's why they called those Pittsburgh team defenses, The Steel Curtain.
In particular the 1976 version, which did not even go to the Super Bowl, being named the #1 NFL defense of all-time. A questionable list given that, aside from the 1962 Packers, the Dallas Doomsday, SF 49er Scarlet Red, 1973 Dolphins perfect "no name" defense, nor any other back to back title winning defenses, appear on a list replete with some of NFL history's greatest one hit wonders.
Winning back to back, with the target on your back every week during the repeat, is the true measure of a champion, and one shot Johnny Cocker's need not apply. Natter another day...
Supporting Stats
Since the 1970 merger:
Playoff ROAD teams with negative -2 TOM are 5-54 with a .085 win % or a 91.5% chance of losing the game.
Playoff HOME teams with negative -2 TOM are 13-30 for a .302 win % or a 70% chance of losing the game.
Playoff teams on ANY field with negative -2 TOM are 19-90 for a .174 win% or a 82.6% chance of losing the game.
Playoff teams on ANY field with negative -2 TOM or greater are 28-225 for a .111 win% or a 88.9% chance of losing the game.
Multiple teams with -2 TOM or greater, WINNING in the SAME playoffs, has occurred in only six of those 47 tournaments.
(H = Home; R = Road; all -2 unless noted otherwise):
1975 H PIT (2); H OAK
"Three things can happen on a pass play and two of them are bad."The above aphorism is not from Darrell Royal, who in fact attributed it to Woody Hayes. What are those things? The pass can be complete, or incomplete, or intercepted. More later...
Uncle TOM?
In the playoffs, home teams with -2 TOM (Turn Over Margin): lose 70% of the time, on any field 83% of the time, and naturally road teams lose 92% of the time, imagine how lucky the Titans were in KC? But it gets better...
Escaping Uncle TOM -2 for multiple teams in the same playoff is very rare, so rare that it has only happened in six out of 47 tournaments.
Once another team has already fallen into the -2 TOM hole and advanced in the tournament, like the Titans did last week, subsequent teams that fall in, like the Eagles this past Sunday against the Falcons, lose a collective 94.5% of the time.
So Eagles fans should count the their blessings, thank their defense, and coaching tendencies lacking common sense...
The Thomas Paine of Common Sense?
With 1:05 remaining and a 1st and goal at the Eagle nine, rather than attempt to run the ball, Quinn called four straight passes, ending in the Falcons 4th down goal to goal 2018 NFC Championship failure.
In the same goal to goal situation, with the game and season on the line, at least Jim Harbaugh tried to run once on 1st down, before calling three straight passes in the 9ers SBXLVII failure.
More infamous, with a Beast running back, with 0:25 on the clock and a time out, Pete Carroll elected to pass on 2nd down from the Pats 2 yard line, which was promptly picked off in the Seahawks SBXLIX failure.
I'm sorry I cannot believe the call, (Al Micheal's - me neither), I cannot believe the call, you've got Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, you've got a guy that's been borderline unstoppable in this part of the field, I can't believe the call - Cris CollinsworthSaid diatribe can be heard in the linked video above. Along those lines... this weekend on occasion too numerous to list, Coaches Payton, Zimmer and Tomlin made similar play calls which left this old armchair QB scratching his head.
All of these situations were in either 3rd or 4th down and a cinder block to go. The Payton and Zimmer calls resulted in killing promising drives on the opponents side of the field, result no points and a punt.
The Tomlin play calls resulted in not one, but two drive killing fourth down failures, which along with their -2 TOM, ended the Steeler's season in failure.
Credit the above play calling to situational tendencies, fostered by a generic coaching environment, beholden to cockeyed analytics based in false doctrine, and lacking in imagination and plain old common sense viz. passing when you should be running.
Whether you have a yard, or two, or a cinder block to go... 99 times out of 100, you should line up with the QB under center, hard count, no bites, silent count - tap inside the thigh, lunge forward ala Bart Starr in the 67 NFL Championship Ice Bowl. End of story.
If you have to get more, try signing the 2nd coming of Larry Csonka or Sam "The Bam" Cunningham. If your team can't lunge forward six feet or less, on a QB sneak, or send a back through or over the line, time to hang it up and try another sport.
Worse yet, if your offense lines up in a shotgun, then runs East West, rather than North South, or idiotically throws the ball, you have either lost your mind or been sold a bag of magic beans by some analytic bean counter, who knows not what they do.
Woody Hayes aphorism needs updating, as there are FOUR bad things that can happen when you voluntarily LOSE CONTROL of the ball by putting it in the air or passing: incomplete (ask Quinn and Harbaugh), OR batted - picked (ask Carroll)....
OR.... your QB gets sacked resulting in a loss of yardage which puts you out of field goal range (ask Zimmer and Payton), OR worse yet, a lost fumble, OR if on 4th down ends the drive with a turnover on downs (ask Tomlin, twice over).
What about an offensive penalty? Due to the rule changes and nature of the NFL, holding which is the most frequently called penalty, is probably called half as often while passing, as opposed to running. Just guessin and putting away the coaches soapbox now.
The Steel Curtain?
Did you know? The 1975 SB Champion Steelers are the only team to ever overcome Uncle TOM -2 TWICE in the same playoff tournament, in both the 1975 Divisional and Title Game, and live to talk about it by winning SB X.
Did you know? In Super Bowls, -2 TOM teams are 1-6 collectively with the 1979 SB Champion Steelers being the only team to overcome this handicap to win SB XIV. In both the above exceptions to the rule of thumb, what made the difference?
From the historical evidence it is apparent that only an extremely good defense can overcome Uncle TOM -2 or greater. So perhaps that's why they called those Pittsburgh team defenses, The Steel Curtain.
In particular the 1976 version, which did not even go to the Super Bowl, being named the #1 NFL defense of all-time. A questionable list given that, aside from the 1962 Packers, the Dallas Doomsday, SF 49er Scarlet Red, 1973 Dolphins perfect "no name" defense, nor any other back to back title winning defenses, appear on a list replete with some of NFL history's greatest one hit wonders.
Winning back to back, with the target on your back every week during the repeat, is the true measure of a champion, and one shot Johnny Cocker's need not apply. Natter another day...
Supporting Stats
Since the 1970 merger:
Playoff ROAD teams with negative -2 TOM are 5-54 with a .085 win % or a 91.5% chance of losing the game.
Playoff HOME teams with negative -2 TOM are 13-30 for a .302 win % or a 70% chance of losing the game.
Playoff teams on ANY field with negative -2 TOM are 19-90 for a .174 win% or a 82.6% chance of losing the game.
Playoff teams on ANY field with negative -2 TOM or greater are 28-225 for a .111 win% or a 88.9% chance of losing the game.
Multiple teams with -2 TOM or greater, WINNING in the SAME playoffs, has occurred in only six of those 47 tournaments.
(H = Home; R = Road; all -2 unless noted otherwise):
1975 H PIT (2); H OAK
1986 H CLE; H DEN
2002 H TEN (-3); H PIT
2005 H SEA; R PIT
2013 H DEN; H IND (-3); R NOR
2017 H PHI ; R TEN
Finally and mercifully.... with only 14 wins in 253 occurrences, playoff teams with -2 TOM or greater, once another team has already fell in the hole and won, have a .055 win% or a 94.5% chance of losing the game.
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