2017 NFL Super Bowl LII Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
We celebrated the regular season finishing 5 games ahead of the nearest expert with a ATS record of 146-103-7; lox 48-28-2. So far in this tournament...
Wildcard 2-2 SU; 0-3-1 ATS
Divisional 2-2 SU; 3-1 ATS; lox 1-1
Champ 1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS; lox 0-1
This post season 5-5 SU; 4-5-1 ATS; lox 1-2; YTD ATS 150-108-8 with lox at 49-30-2.
Finishing at number one on the web ATS and Lox.
SUN 6:30PM EST NBC
PHI +7 @ NE -3 - Opened -7, went to -3, now -4.5, our pick can be found below. Earlier this week, in The Philadelphia Beagles, Atomic Dog? we ran down the Minutemen's impressive resume and SB history. Tonight's theme is the Dynasty vs the Bird Dog and burying the bone...
The Brady Bunch?
SB LII will be Tom Brady's 8th appearance in a Super Bowl, and since one must to win a lot of games to get to just one SB, The Pharaoh owns almost every quarterback postseason record in existence:
Most starts (36), most wins (27-9), conference championships (8), road wins (7), tied with Bart Starr (who at 9-1 has the best win %) for most titles (5-2 in SB's), and I'll stop there because the list is a long one.
All time, what quarterback comes closest to challenging those numbers? And now two names one might expect to see or hear together...
Trebek: he has a 16-7 postseason record; 4-0 in Super Bowls and 3 SB MVP awards. Alex, what is Tom Brady's closest post season competitor, Joe Montana.
In the divisional vs TEN the Pats did not allow a single sack against Tennessee, however, they did allow 1 hit and 13 hurries on 53 pass blocking snaps. RT Waddle's sub Fleming did not allow a single pressure on his 22 pass blocking plays. This postseason, the Patriots O-line has kept Brady clean from pressure on 74.7% of his dropbacks.
In the AFC Championship, the Comeback Kid finished 26-of-38 for 290 yards, 2 TD's, no ints, and a 108.4 rating. Under pressure: 2-5 for 29 yds, and a 59.6 passer rating. The O-line allowed 2 sacks, 2 hits, 4 hurries; RT Fleming 1 sack, 1 hurry, not bad.
In building a 20-10 lead, the Jags pressured The Pharaoh consistently for 40 minutes. A lack of Jags D-line depth caused crunch time fatigue, and as that pressure subsided allowed Brady to rally his Minutemen. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Below, can you guess which passer rating by zone chart from last weekends championship games is: an eight time SB QB vs the #2 defense, or a backup NFL journeyman vs the #1 defense?
Won't Get Foled Again?
In 2014, Chip Kelley's Eagles traded Foles, who had gone 14-4 with a division title, 40 TD's - 12 ints, for a 2nd pick to the Rams in exchange for Sam "IR" Bradford. Foles was subsequently cut by the Rams and signed by the Chefs as a 2016 bench warmer, before being abandoned on the Isle of Misfit QB's.
From which the Pederson Eagles signed him to warm the pine for Carson Wentz, until disaster struck in Wk14 when Wentz became Collateral Damage? In the last 4 weeks of the regular season, under pressure, Foles had a league worst passer rating of 23.8, 13 of 34 for 117 yards, 0 TD's and 2 ints. All hope was seemingly lost?
In the 2017 NFC Championship, under pressure the Eagles QB Nick Foles went 7 of 10 for 139 yards, 2 TD's, 0 ints with a rating of 152.1. Finishing 26-of-33 for 352 yards, 3 TD's, no ints, and a 141.4 rating.
Breaking that down: 4-6 for 172 yds, 2TD's and a 149.3 rating on deep passes. On passes 10yds +: 7-10 for 203 yds, 3TD's and a 152.1 rating. Quick releases, 2.5 seconds or less, a completion rate of 94.7%.
Closing: in the 2nd half, a blistering 11-for-11 for 144 yards with 2TD's for a perfect rating of 158.3. Converting: on 3rd down 10 of 14 (71%), on 3rd-and-6 or more, a blistering 6 of 7, vs a Vikings D that only allowed 25% 3DC in the regular season, the lowest of any defense since 1991.
Prior to All-Pro LT Jason Peters Wk7 season ending injury, the Eagles allowed 1 pressure on every 5.1 snaps (3rd). Since Wk7, 1 pressure on every 3.6 snaps (21st). As for Peters replacement going up against All-Pro defensive end Everson Griffen, on nine pass blocking snaps Mr. Vaitai allowed no pressures.
A marked improvement over the regular season in which Vaitai's allowed a human turnstyle 9 sacks and 10 hits. Perhaps that improvement can be traced to Foles quicker release in the playoffs 2.39 seconds vs 2.60 in the regular season. Foles is 34-of-39 (87%) when passing within 2.5 seconds of the snap this postseason. In two playoff games, Foles has attempted 16 pass attempts while under pressure with a passer rating of 147.9 and an adjusted completion percentage of 84.6%
Foles is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a passer rating over 100 in each of his first three postseason starts (minimum 30 attempts). In three postseason starts, Foles is 72-of-96 (75%) for 793 yards, 5TD's, zero ints, and a 116.3 rating. Foles completion percentage and passer rating is the highest for any quarterback in NFL postseason history (minimum 90 attempts). Bart Starr is 2nd at 104.8 while Kurt Warner is 3rd at 102.8.
And now two names we never thought to see or hear together....
Trebek: In NFL history, the only two QB's with a 75% completion rate in back to back playoff games. Alex, what are Joe Montana and Nick Foles. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later
D for De-fence or Dogs?
From our Championship Game picks...
4.78 21.8%; pass 8.0 avg, 59% comp; rating 97, rush 25 att 3.00 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.96 29.7%; pass 7.1 avg, 64% comp; rating 92, rush 22 att 4.36 yds; avg 9.47 to go.
The Minutemen have registered 11 playoff sacks, 8 sacks and a 39.6% pressure rating vs TEN; 10 hurries, 4 hits, 3 sacks on 36 drop backs for a 47.2% pressure rating vs JAX.
Despite only registering 4 sacks, 2 vs ATL and MIN, the pass avg and rating indicate the Eagle defense is doing a much better situational job of pressuring QB's. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Who Let The Dogs Out?
Last week we gave those mangy mutts, a holla out about their players educational pedigree from the Canine community. FYI, the betting favorite has won 33 of 51 SB's. So far in this tournament favorites are 5-5 SU, and NE -14 has been the only one to cover vs TEN ATS, making the dogs very lovable mutts at 9-1 ATS...
Two weeks ago, in overcoming 10 gifted 1st half points on 2TO's, the Beagles put down a peaking Private Ryan's Falcon squad (4.26 SRS) 15-10. In other words, a 2nd half shutout, and without the turnover shortened field, the Eagles D pitched a 15-0 shutout.
Last week, the Birds of Prey or Bird Dogs, in defeating a Keenum Vikes squad 38-7 (9.12 SRS) eviscerated the NFL's #1 defense. Albeit, backing out the pick six, and four lengthy drives resulting in no points, two on TO's, two on downs, giving 2 FG's and 2TD's credit, the final score could have been a much closer 31-27 Eagles.
But there's a reason those unfortunate series of events for the Norsemen occurred, the aforementioned pressuring nature of the Eagle defense. After the opening MIN TD drive, 38-0 with 3 forced TO's. In other words, in eight quarters, the Eagles have allowed only one lengthy offensive scoring drive against a combined +13.38 SRS level of competition.
On 50 dropbacks, the Eagles pressured Keenum 24 times (48%) who went 11-of-22 for 108 yards with 1 TD and one int. Meanwhile, with Pederson putting him in a position to win, Foles has stepped up, which has re-elevated the Beagles D and it's pressuring nature.
Including playoff games, the Eagles defense has produced 311 pressures on 753 passing plays (41.3%), #1 in the NFL. During the regular season, the Beagles only blitzed on 23% of pass plays, yet pressured on 38% of the plays when they did not blitz. How did the Eagles manage to do this?
In following the Al Attle's model, Pederson utilized his bench depth to wear down opponents by constantly rotating fresh players in. Resulting in a league high seven Eagle defensive players registering 20+ pressures: D-line starters Graham (60), Cox (50), Curry (47), Jernigan (23), and backups Long (51), Barnett (37) and Allen (21).
Translated, these Bird Dogs have depth and can bring sustained pressure, causing opponents O-line's to fatigue late game. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Dy-nasty?
Two weeks ago, the Pats trounced a Mariota led -3.50 SRS Titan team, which had been given a preferential pass to Foxboro by the hall monitors (as detailed here). Perhaps somebody didn't want a repeat of the Wk1 MNF Chiefs massacre of the Patriots? Nah.
Last week, the Patriots D struggled to stop a Bortles - Hackett attack. On the other side of the ball, the Minutemen could only manage 10 "unassisted" points vs the NFL's #2 defense. As detailed here, the "benefit of the doubt" loomed large in the Pats comeback over the 6.54 SRS Jags. The Pats combined level of playoff competition, a paltry +3.04 SRS. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
The Luck of The?
In 2015, the Squawks D-line pressured Brady for 3 quarters, jumped up 10 pts, but lacking depth fatigued late, allowing 14 unanswered pts. That fatigue and ingenious play calling by the Seattle brain trust, donated a Lombardi trophy to New England's collection.
Last year the Minutemen were put in a 28-3 hole, and to their credit dug their way out. But not without help from their opponents coaching staff (as detailed in Coaching Common Sense?) and the absence of all pro Falcon DB Trufant.
But that's not all... With an aggressive front four, the Falcons applied a 44.7% pressure rate on Brady for 3 quarters. Lacking depth, as the pass rush ran out of gas, said pressure dropped to 20.7% in the 4th quarter and OT.
During the 4Q and OT respite, The Pharaoh went 15-of-19 for 170 yards with 2TD's, a game-tying 2 pt conversion, and a 13 yd pass interference call, what else is new? that set up the game winning TD in OT. Sense a pattern? Refer back to Al Attles and like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Diggin up dem bones?
The Seahawks, Falcons and Jags D-lines all lacked depth, thus late game fatigue assisted the Minutemen's comebacks in all three tilts. The dynasty brings experience and coaching, the bird dogs bring speed, depth, and aggressive relentless pressure, without selling out or blitzing. Something which The Pharaoh has not seen in awhile, nor fared well against historically.
This Sunday the most important injury is the same one we chronicled here and here. Its not The Pharaohs hand the Pats need to worry about, it's his Waddle and Achilles heel. This week RT Waddles replacement, a seemingly well adjusted Fleming, will be up against a D-line rotation that causes late game O-line fatigue.
In Brady's five SB victories he faced pressure on 28%; 39%; 29%; 31% and 30% of his dropbacks. In his two losses, he faced pressure on 43% and 47% of his dropbacks. Again the Eagles are #1 in pressures (41.3%).
Achilles effect or affect? This season 50% of Brady dropbacks took longer than 2.5 seconds. On such plays, the Eagles have allowed a passer rating of 61.3 (#2), pressured the QB on 62% (#1), and forced a turnover worthy play 7% of the time (#2).
Facing a seven deep D-line capable of bringing pressure for 60 minutes, raises the question at RT, and with a Achilles heel hankering their QB, the Pharaoh could be in for a long evening, attempting to pass from a prone position, and watching the game from the bench.
On the other side of the ball, in Hostetler-ing his team to this point, against superior defenses to the Pats, Foles is having a post season for the ages. Can Belichick and Patricias defensive schemes generate any more pressure than the Falcons or Vikings? Against the NFL's #1 defense, in 34 pass plays the Eagle O-line did not allow a single QB hit nor pressure, and has not allowed a sack in this postseason.
As noted above, in playoff level of competition NE faced a combined +3.04 SRS, PHI a much heavier +13.38 while allowing only one TD. One team with a less obstructed path struggled against lesser competition, while a pack of bird dogs got a hold of a bone and tore up tougher competition.
History Repeats?
Pertaining to the aforementioned "Benefit of The Doubt" and Futbol, remember Brazil's home field humiliation at the hands of a much swifter and aggressive Die Alder (Germany) in the 2014 World Cup Semifinal? (Natterings here, here, here, here and here)
Related... as chronicled in The Silence of The Hogs, and reduxed in Things That Make You Go, Hmm?... In 1983, the 14-2 Redskins having scored a record 541 points advanced to SB XVIII through obvious zebra chicanery in the NFC title game. Only to be completely humbled by a +3 dog Raiders squad, wrought with aggressive team speed and depth.
Brazil's public exposure (7-1) and the 83 dead Skins debacle (38-9), prove that with regard to favorite son's who through "the benefit of the doubt" get ushered into a favorable position, sometimes the end often justifies the means.
Enter the Patriots with a Super Bowl LII ticket in hand and B2B hopes. Said ticket partially obtained with fewer obstructions, via a lower level of competition, and amidst a furor of controversy over what can be deemed as questionable officiating. Time for that ticket to get validated, or chewed up into shreds by an angry pack of dogs?
The Pick?
Our prognostication? This year, none of the above "born with a golden horseshoe in their ass" nonsense; "against all odds" coaching tomfoolery; or late game opponents fatigue is going to happen.
Our pick ATS should be obvious by now, never one to stare a gift horse or bird dog in the mouth, we snatched up those bargain bird dog Eagles early line +7. Finally, from the SB XVIII CBS pregame show...
Oh, the answer to the chart question? the one on the right or a thrice discarded journeyman QB, left for dead on the island of misfit quarterbacks and toys. Who this Sunday will lead his team of barking and howling mutts to a convincing victory, earning both the Lombardi and SB LII MVP trophies a home in The City of Brotherly Love.
In addition to hailing the Beagles with not one, but two, and three thematic hit songs, dog headed Eagles or Beagles fans will be happy to know, since their's was the only team I picked incorrectly, twice in the last two weeks, I'm now one of these.
The kiss of death? We think not. Unlike many NFL fans who have commented to moi, its a joke, they should just cancel the season and award the Lombardi trophy to the Patriots, in an audience with The Pharaoh, we think these dogs will do anything but roll over and play dead.
And now this... Arf-arf, ruff-ruff, replete with below homage to George Clinton's bow-wow-wow-yippie-yo-yippie-yeah. Prior to Super Sunday, the Eagles and their fans might be askin the Minutemen and MSM this...
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
We celebrated the regular season finishing 5 games ahead of the nearest expert with a ATS record of 146-103-7; lox 48-28-2. So far in this tournament...
Wildcard 2-2 SU; 0-3-1 ATS
Divisional 2-2 SU; 3-1 ATS; lox 1-1
Champ 1-1 SU; 1-1 ATS; lox 0-1
This post season 5-5 SU; 4-5-1 ATS; lox 1-2; YTD ATS 150-108-8 with lox at 49-30-2.
Finishing at number one on the web ATS and Lox.
SUN 6:30PM EST NBC
PHI +7 @ NE -3 - Opened -7, went to -3, now -4.5, our pick can be found below. Earlier this week, in The Philadelphia Beagles, Atomic Dog? we ran down the Minutemen's impressive resume and SB history. Tonight's theme is the Dynasty vs the Bird Dog and burying the bone...
The Brady Bunch?
SB LII will be Tom Brady's 8th appearance in a Super Bowl, and since one must to win a lot of games to get to just one SB, The Pharaoh owns almost every quarterback postseason record in existence:
Most starts (36), most wins (27-9), conference championships (8), road wins (7), tied with Bart Starr (who at 9-1 has the best win %) for most titles (5-2 in SB's), and I'll stop there because the list is a long one.
All time, what quarterback comes closest to challenging those numbers? And now two names one might expect to see or hear together...
Trebek: he has a 16-7 postseason record; 4-0 in Super Bowls and 3 SB MVP awards. Alex, what is Tom Brady's closest post season competitor, Joe Montana.
In the divisional vs TEN the Pats did not allow a single sack against Tennessee, however, they did allow 1 hit and 13 hurries on 53 pass blocking snaps. RT Waddle's sub Fleming did not allow a single pressure on his 22 pass blocking plays. This postseason, the Patriots O-line has kept Brady clean from pressure on 74.7% of his dropbacks.
In the AFC Championship, the Comeback Kid finished 26-of-38 for 290 yards, 2 TD's, no ints, and a 108.4 rating. Under pressure: 2-5 for 29 yds, and a 59.6 passer rating. The O-line allowed 2 sacks, 2 hits, 4 hurries; RT Fleming 1 sack, 1 hurry, not bad.
In building a 20-10 lead, the Jags pressured The Pharaoh consistently for 40 minutes. A lack of Jags D-line depth caused crunch time fatigue, and as that pressure subsided allowed Brady to rally his Minutemen. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Below, can you guess which passer rating by zone chart from last weekends championship games is: an eight time SB QB vs the #2 defense, or a backup NFL journeyman vs the #1 defense?
Won't Get Foled Again?
In 2014, Chip Kelley's Eagles traded Foles, who had gone 14-4 with a division title, 40 TD's - 12 ints, for a 2nd pick to the Rams in exchange for Sam "IR" Bradford. Foles was subsequently cut by the Rams and signed by the Chefs as a 2016 bench warmer, before being abandoned on the Isle of Misfit QB's.
From which the Pederson Eagles signed him to warm the pine for Carson Wentz, until disaster struck in Wk14 when Wentz became Collateral Damage? In the last 4 weeks of the regular season, under pressure, Foles had a league worst passer rating of 23.8, 13 of 34 for 117 yards, 0 TD's and 2 ints. All hope was seemingly lost?
In the 2017 NFC Championship, under pressure the Eagles QB Nick Foles went 7 of 10 for 139 yards, 2 TD's, 0 ints with a rating of 152.1. Finishing 26-of-33 for 352 yards, 3 TD's, no ints, and a 141.4 rating.
Breaking that down: 4-6 for 172 yds, 2TD's and a 149.3 rating on deep passes. On passes 10yds +: 7-10 for 203 yds, 3TD's and a 152.1 rating. Quick releases, 2.5 seconds or less, a completion rate of 94.7%.
Closing: in the 2nd half, a blistering 11-for-11 for 144 yards with 2TD's for a perfect rating of 158.3. Converting: on 3rd down 10 of 14 (71%), on 3rd-and-6 or more, a blistering 6 of 7, vs a Vikings D that only allowed 25% 3DC in the regular season, the lowest of any defense since 1991.
Prior to All-Pro LT Jason Peters Wk7 season ending injury, the Eagles allowed 1 pressure on every 5.1 snaps (3rd). Since Wk7, 1 pressure on every 3.6 snaps (21st). As for Peters replacement going up against All-Pro defensive end Everson Griffen, on nine pass blocking snaps Mr. Vaitai allowed no pressures.
A marked improvement over the regular season in which Vaitai's allowed a human turnstyle 9 sacks and 10 hits. Perhaps that improvement can be traced to Foles quicker release in the playoffs 2.39 seconds vs 2.60 in the regular season. Foles is 34-of-39 (87%) when passing within 2.5 seconds of the snap this postseason. In two playoff games, Foles has attempted 16 pass attempts while under pressure with a passer rating of 147.9 and an adjusted completion percentage of 84.6%
Foles is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a passer rating over 100 in each of his first three postseason starts (minimum 30 attempts). In three postseason starts, Foles is 72-of-96 (75%) for 793 yards, 5TD's, zero ints, and a 116.3 rating. Foles completion percentage and passer rating is the highest for any quarterback in NFL postseason history (minimum 90 attempts). Bart Starr is 2nd at 104.8 while Kurt Warner is 3rd at 102.8.
And now two names we never thought to see or hear together....
Trebek: In NFL history, the only two QB's with a 75% completion rate in back to back playoff games. Alex, what are Joe Montana and Nick Foles. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later
D for De-fence or Dogs?
From our Championship Game picks...
Since Wk5 5.30 19.5% on 1st downs, as the Patriots defense has allowed the fewest pts in the NFL. How much better has Patricia's D gotten?Pats last 2 (TEN Mariota, JAX Bortles) 1st down
4.78 21.8%; pass 8.0 avg, 59% comp; rating 97, rush 25 att 3.00 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.96 29.7%; pass 7.1 avg, 64% comp; rating 92, rush 22 att 4.36 yds; avg 9.47 to go.
The Minutemen have registered 11 playoff sacks, 8 sacks and a 39.6% pressure rating vs TEN; 10 hurries, 4 hits, 3 sacks on 36 drop backs for a 47.2% pressure rating vs JAX.
As we Nattered in Dog Headed Eagles?
4.80 23.6%; pass 6.1 avg, 61% comp; rating 78, rush 25 att 4.28 yds. 2-3rd down...
The Eagles led the NFL in QB pressures = hits, sacks, hurries, grounding, holding pen. for 287 pressures, 19 more than the Jaguars, who were next closest defense. All told, the Cheese Steaks produced pressure on 40.8% of their pass defense snaps, the highest rate league wide.Eagles last 2 (ATL Ryan, MIN Keenum) 1st down
4.80 23.6%; pass 6.1 avg, 61% comp; rating 78, rush 25 att 4.28 yds. 2-3rd down...
4.91 35.8%; pass 5.6 avg, 62% comp; rating 74, rush 13 att 3.77 yds, avg 7.79 to go.
Despite only registering 4 sacks, 2 vs ATL and MIN, the pass avg and rating indicate the Eagle defense is doing a much better situational job of pressuring QB's. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Who Let The Dogs Out?
Last week we gave those mangy mutts, a holla out about their players educational pedigree from the Canine community. FYI, the betting favorite has won 33 of 51 SB's. So far in this tournament favorites are 5-5 SU, and NE -14 has been the only one to cover vs TEN ATS, making the dogs very lovable mutts at 9-1 ATS...
Last week, the Birds of Prey or Bird Dogs, in defeating a Keenum Vikes squad 38-7 (9.12 SRS) eviscerated the NFL's #1 defense. Albeit, backing out the pick six, and four lengthy drives resulting in no points, two on TO's, two on downs, giving 2 FG's and 2TD's credit, the final score could have been a much closer 31-27 Eagles.
But there's a reason those unfortunate series of events for the Norsemen occurred, the aforementioned pressuring nature of the Eagle defense. After the opening MIN TD drive, 38-0 with 3 forced TO's. In other words, in eight quarters, the Eagles have allowed only one lengthy offensive scoring drive against a combined +13.38 SRS level of competition.
On 50 dropbacks, the Eagles pressured Keenum 24 times (48%) who went 11-of-22 for 108 yards with 1 TD and one int. Meanwhile, with Pederson putting him in a position to win, Foles has stepped up, which has re-elevated the Beagles D and it's pressuring nature.
Including playoff games, the Eagles defense has produced 311 pressures on 753 passing plays (41.3%), #1 in the NFL. During the regular season, the Beagles only blitzed on 23% of pass plays, yet pressured on 38% of the plays when they did not blitz. How did the Eagles manage to do this?
In following the Al Attle's model, Pederson utilized his bench depth to wear down opponents by constantly rotating fresh players in. Resulting in a league high seven Eagle defensive players registering 20+ pressures: D-line starters Graham (60), Cox (50), Curry (47), Jernigan (23), and backups Long (51), Barnett (37) and Allen (21).
Translated, these Bird Dogs have depth and can bring sustained pressure, causing opponents O-line's to fatigue late game. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Dy-nasty?
Two weeks ago, the Pats trounced a Mariota led -3.50 SRS Titan team, which had been given a preferential pass to Foxboro by the hall monitors (as detailed here). Perhaps somebody didn't want a repeat of the Wk1 MNF Chiefs massacre of the Patriots? Nah.
Last week, the Patriots D struggled to stop a Bortles - Hackett attack. On the other side of the ball, the Minutemen could only manage 10 "unassisted" points vs the NFL's #2 defense. As detailed here, the "benefit of the doubt" loomed large in the Pats comeback over the 6.54 SRS Jags. The Pats combined level of playoff competition, a paltry +3.04 SRS. Like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
The Luck of The?
In 2015, the Squawks D-line pressured Brady for 3 quarters, jumped up 10 pts, but lacking depth fatigued late, allowing 14 unanswered pts. That fatigue and ingenious play calling by the Seattle brain trust, donated a Lombardi trophy to New England's collection.
Last year the Minutemen were put in a 28-3 hole, and to their credit dug their way out. But not without help from their opponents coaching staff (as detailed in Coaching Common Sense?) and the absence of all pro Falcon DB Trufant.
But that's not all... With an aggressive front four, the Falcons applied a 44.7% pressure rate on Brady for 3 quarters. Lacking depth, as the pass rush ran out of gas, said pressure dropped to 20.7% in the 4th quarter and OT.
During the 4Q and OT respite, The Pharaoh went 15-of-19 for 170 yards with 2TD's, a game-tying 2 pt conversion, and a 13 yd pass interference call, what else is new? that set up the game winning TD in OT. Sense a pattern? Refer back to Al Attles and like a smart dog, we bury this bone for later.
Diggin up dem bones?
The Seahawks, Falcons and Jags D-lines all lacked depth, thus late game fatigue assisted the Minutemen's comebacks in all three tilts. The dynasty brings experience and coaching, the bird dogs bring speed, depth, and aggressive relentless pressure, without selling out or blitzing. Something which The Pharaoh has not seen in awhile, nor fared well against historically.
This Sunday the most important injury is the same one we chronicled here and here. Its not The Pharaohs hand the Pats need to worry about, it's his Waddle and Achilles heel. This week RT Waddles replacement, a seemingly well adjusted Fleming, will be up against a D-line rotation that causes late game O-line fatigue.
In Brady's five SB victories he faced pressure on 28%; 39%; 29%; 31% and 30% of his dropbacks. In his two losses, he faced pressure on 43% and 47% of his dropbacks. Again the Eagles are #1 in pressures (41.3%).
Achilles effect or affect? This season 50% of Brady dropbacks took longer than 2.5 seconds. On such plays, the Eagles have allowed a passer rating of 61.3 (#2), pressured the QB on 62% (#1), and forced a turnover worthy play 7% of the time (#2).
Facing a seven deep D-line capable of bringing pressure for 60 minutes, raises the question at RT, and with a Achilles heel hankering their QB, the Pharaoh could be in for a long evening, attempting to pass from a prone position, and watching the game from the bench.
On the other side of the ball, in Hostetler-ing his team to this point, against superior defenses to the Pats, Foles is having a post season for the ages. Can Belichick and Patricias defensive schemes generate any more pressure than the Falcons or Vikings? Against the NFL's #1 defense, in 34 pass plays the Eagle O-line did not allow a single QB hit nor pressure, and has not allowed a sack in this postseason.
As noted above, in playoff level of competition NE faced a combined +3.04 SRS, PHI a much heavier +13.38 while allowing only one TD. One team with a less obstructed path struggled against lesser competition, while a pack of bird dogs got a hold of a bone and tore up tougher competition.
History Repeats?
Pertaining to the aforementioned "Benefit of The Doubt" and Futbol, remember Brazil's home field humiliation at the hands of a much swifter and aggressive Die Alder (Germany) in the 2014 World Cup Semifinal? (Natterings here, here, here, here and here)
Related... as chronicled in The Silence of The Hogs, and reduxed in Things That Make You Go, Hmm?... In 1983, the 14-2 Redskins having scored a record 541 points advanced to SB XVIII through obvious zebra chicanery in the NFC title game. Only to be completely humbled by a +3 dog Raiders squad, wrought with aggressive team speed and depth.
Brazil's public exposure (7-1) and the 83 dead Skins debacle (38-9), prove that with regard to favorite son's who through "the benefit of the doubt" get ushered into a favorable position, sometimes the end often justifies the means.
Enter the Patriots with a Super Bowl LII ticket in hand and B2B hopes. Said ticket partially obtained with fewer obstructions, via a lower level of competition, and amidst a furor of controversy over what can be deemed as questionable officiating. Time for that ticket to get validated, or chewed up into shreds by an angry pack of dogs?
The Pick?
Our prognostication? This year, none of the above "born with a golden horseshoe in their ass" nonsense; "against all odds" coaching tomfoolery; or late game opponents fatigue is going to happen.
Our pick ATS should be obvious by now, never one to stare a gift horse or bird dog in the mouth, we snatched up those bargain bird dog Eagles early line +7. Finally, from the SB XVIII CBS pregame show...
Not much of a game today Brent, indeed. Bolder yet, our LOCK is PHI to win SU, and there is a distinct possibility that this game might not be close as the game wears on.The pre game show on CBS exposed another individual who KNEW something. Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder, came on drunk already celebrating his bet [on what would be the winning dog Raiders]. Burnt Cheeseburger asked, "So Greek will we have much of a game today?" The Greek laughed his head off then slurred: "Not much of a game today, Brent". (Full hilarious transcript in The Silence of The Hogs)
Oh, the answer to the chart question? the one on the right or a thrice discarded journeyman QB, left for dead on the island of misfit quarterbacks and toys. Who this Sunday will lead his team of barking and howling mutts to a convincing victory, earning both the Lombardi and SB LII MVP trophies a home in The City of Brotherly Love.
In addition to hailing the Beagles with not one, but two, and three thematic hit songs, dog headed Eagles or Beagles fans will be happy to know, since their's was the only team I picked incorrectly, twice in the last two weeks, I'm now one of these.
The kiss of death? We think not. Unlike many NFL fans who have commented to moi, its a joke, they should just cancel the season and award the Lombardi trophy to the Patriots, in an audience with The Pharaoh, we think these dogs will do anything but roll over and play dead.
And now this... Arf-arf, ruff-ruff, replete with below homage to George Clinton's bow-wow-wow-yippie-yo-yippie-yeah. Prior to Super Sunday, the Eagles and their fans might be askin the Minutemen and MSM this...
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
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