A Trade Weighted Dollar?
Once again, not to be mistaken for Tuesday's With Morrie, it's Tuesdays With Trump...
A look at Presidential cycles tracked by dollar value vs the major currencies used to arb, transact or facilitate $ carry trades.
Trade Weighted US Dollar - Major Currencies - includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden.
Real Trade Weighted Dollar - Broad - in addition to all the above, includes Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.
Both dollar indexes anchored to 1973 = 100. Why 1973? Google Bretton Woods. Moving West...
From the Trade Weighted US Dollar - Major Currencies chart: the dollar index valuations for these administrations:
Reagan 1st term optimism, voodoo trickle down economics, financial dereg
Jan 1980 (95) - Mar 1985 (146)
Change: +50 = 1984 the peak of our civilization, its all downhill from there.
Reagan 2nd term - Bush Sr, more financial dereg, pendulum swings from labor to capital
Mar 1985 (146) - May 1995 (80)
Change -65 = the great deficit decline
Clinton - crazy financial dereg, bad foreign policy and Wall Street greed (WS insanity)
May 1995 (80) - Feb 2002 (112)
Change +30 = 1st serial bubble forms and pops, high tech
Shrub - institutional excuse du jour for bad management: "its the terrorists", neocon decline, derivatives gone wild, cheap eurodollar floods global markets
Feb 2002 (112) - Jan 2008 (69)
Change -40 = 2nd serial bubble (reflation) forms and pops, MBS, RE
Obama - more dereg, WS insanity, eurodollar market contraction begets dollar melt up
Jan 2008 (69) - Jan 2017 (97)
Change +30 = 3rd serial bubble forms, everything and its mother
Trump - populist and WS insanity, eurodollar market decay
Jan 2017 (97) - Feb 2018 (85) - Aug 15, 2018 (91)
Change -6 = bubble goes to blow off?
With the exception of Uncle Ronnies 1st term, there are two distinct patterns present.
1. The dollar has declined in value since 1985.
2. Republican administrations preside over the majority of dollar declines, with Democrats over the gains.
Fodder for coffee talk, discuss amongst yourselves, I'm verklempt.
SNL Season 17, Episode 14 Roseanne Barr/Red Hot Chili Peppers, aired 22 Feb. 1992 (US Based Clip).
A look at Presidential cycles tracked by dollar value vs the major currencies used to arb, transact or facilitate $ carry trades.
Both dollar indexes anchored to 1973 = 100. Why 1973? Google Bretton Woods. Moving West...
From the Trade Weighted US Dollar - Major Currencies chart: the dollar index valuations for these administrations:
Reagan 1st term optimism, voodoo trickle down economics, financial dereg
Jan 1980 (95) - Mar 1985 (146)
Change: +50 = 1984 the peak of our civilization, its all downhill from there.
Reagan 2nd term - Bush Sr, more financial dereg, pendulum swings from labor to capital
Mar 1985 (146) - May 1995 (80)
Change -65 = the great deficit decline
Clinton - crazy financial dereg, bad foreign policy and Wall Street greed (WS insanity)
May 1995 (80) - Feb 2002 (112)
Change +30 = 1st serial bubble forms and pops, high tech
Shrub - institutional excuse du jour for bad management: "its the terrorists", neocon decline, derivatives gone wild, cheap eurodollar floods global markets
Feb 2002 (112) - Jan 2008 (69)
Change -40 = 2nd serial bubble (reflation) forms and pops, MBS, RE
Obama - more dereg, WS insanity, eurodollar market contraction begets dollar melt up
Jan 2008 (69) - Jan 2017 (97)
Change +30 = 3rd serial bubble forms, everything and its mother
Trump - populist and WS insanity, eurodollar market decay
Jan 2017 (97) - Feb 2018 (85) - Aug 15, 2018 (91)
Change -6 = bubble goes to blow off?
With the exception of Uncle Ronnies 1st term, there are two distinct patterns present.
1. The dollar has declined in value since 1985.
2. Republican administrations preside over the majority of dollar declines, with Democrats over the gains.
Fodder for coffee talk, discuss amongst yourselves, I'm verklempt.
SNL Season 17, Episode 14 Roseanne Barr/Red Hot Chili Peppers, aired 22 Feb. 1992 (US Based Clip).
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