Timing Is Everything? - Part 3

Following up on Timing Is Everything? - Part 2.... 

These are the c. seasonal inflection points (they may vary a little from year to year):#1) 3rd week in Jan.#2) mid Mar.#3) May 5,#4) mid Jun.#5) July 21,#6) 2-3 week in Oct. - Salmo Trutta 

- quoted in Dark Side Of The Moon?

Our Nattering from Dark Side Of The Moon? Part 2...

Aside from the 5th inflection point (between now and Aug 1st), can't see much in the way of this market, which is anything but reflective of the real economy.

Anything to look forward to? The end of September when Q end turn premium and a substantial reduction in long term flows should bring a liquidity crunch.

For clues, keep an eye on China devaluing viz. RMB vs $; and carry trade to generate needed dollars viz. JPY vs $.

After our October 2nd prognostication noted in Timing Is Everything? Part 2, on October 4th, 12:32PM EST  B is For Bob commented...

You're the man Naybob!

Again, Salmo's tutelage has served us well.  On October 4th we responded to Bob in kind, with a note for Salmo...

Yo B - Thanks for the kind words. 

Proximo, 

It went sideways and did not bounce to a new peak, so consider 10/01 7728 the start, with the roll over the cliff coming on the money at market open 10/04. 

How much longer? 7320 NAS Futures sounds like a good resistance bounce point. Another seven trading days to reach October 15th - 19th inflection zone. 

However, since this "cycle" started 3 days early 10/01, consider that inflection point could also get drawn forward viz. Thurs Oct 11th. 

Golden week ends Mon Oct 8th, this means China has been out of the party so far, what happens if they have need for liquidity and decide to liquidate?

Further damage? if it breaks 7160, then 6950 which is 10% correction zone. Beyond that we shall not comment. TBD. 

Never forget, what an investor paid matters not, nor does intrinsic value. Why? because its ALL a CON-fidence game. Emphasis apropos.

Does nobody else read or believe the gospel? Salmo is most wise and generous to share his wealth of knowledge. Thank you my mentor and friend. 

Spaniard

The Nattering One muses... So far, between October 1st and 11th, in nine trading days, a decline from 7728 to 6931 for 797 points or -10.3%. Prescient enough?  Further... 

On Sunday October 7th, in order to spur the economy, the PBOC made a one percentage point cut in banks reserve requirement ratios.

Indeed ending China's Golden Week in grand fashion, as on last Monday October 8th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes both closed down around 3.7%... 

and 48 hours later the US market indexes followed suit at -4%.

A single day 4% decline or 10% in nine days, isn't much considering the weekly chart above. Since mid November 2017, a 31% haircut has been given to those investors. 

More to come for investors on a global scale??... in Timing Is Everything? Part 4, stay tuned, no flippin.

Recommended reading:

Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End) 
Dark Side Of The Moon?
Dark Side of The Moon? Part 2
Timing Is Everything?
Timing Is Everything? - Part 2

From Salmo Trutta:
The Dark Side Of The Moon: The Seasonal Clock
The Darker Side Of The Moon