Bear-ly Immune?
Nattering about the recent sell off... Are recent new highs in US indices a head fake? Have we been in a global equities bear market since at least January 2018, if not prior?
Above, between 05/28 and 06/03 Brent LCO futures shedding 15% in 5 sessions, whatever is that purple line?
Above, if commodities are any indicator Brent oil futures say "bear" since July 2014 (bars, red arrow). Again, whatever is that purple line?
As for Global Equities.... above in heavy import export GDP China and Germany, China's reflated equities bubble burst in May 2015 (purple line, red arrow), with German DAX latency confirming 30 months later in Jan 2018 (bars, blue arrow).
At least we now know what that purple line is.... Moving West... despite the 2017-18 US indices climb to new heights, and US FOMC, BEA and BLS econometric falsity, ahem, managing "half baked" expectations...
inverted ED (Eurodollar), UST (Bonds), swap rate curves and negative swap spreads are now all humming the same tune in unison, with the USD/JPY fat lady singing someone has a "yen" for many GW's (George Washington's or Dead Presidents).
In 2017-18 did the US indices receive a "hall pass" or "bear immunity" from a "flight to safety" and corporate tax repatriation?
Was the playing of this "Trump card" how any perceived US "bear" hunt got delayed an additional 9 months, until October 2018? TBD.
Above, between 05/28 and 06/03 Brent LCO futures shedding 15% in 5 sessions, whatever is that purple line?
Above, if commodities are any indicator Brent oil futures say "bear" since July 2014 (bars, red arrow). Again, whatever is that purple line?
As for Global Equities.... above in heavy import export GDP China and Germany, China's reflated equities bubble burst in May 2015 (purple line, red arrow), with German DAX latency confirming 30 months later in Jan 2018 (bars, blue arrow).
At least we now know what that purple line is.... Moving West... despite the 2017-18 US indices climb to new heights, and US FOMC, BEA and BLS econometric falsity, ahem, managing "half baked" expectations...
inverted ED (Eurodollar), UST (Bonds), swap rate curves and negative swap spreads are now all humming the same tune in unison, with the USD/JPY fat lady singing someone has a "yen" for many GW's (George Washington's or Dead Presidents).
When certain parties, offshore and otherwise, can't get the GW's they need in the market, with no lender of last resort or backstop for them, they must resort to selling USD assets at any cost to order to obtain them. - Capitulation To The Dark Side?In 2018, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) took effect. The BEA estimate of the one-time repatriation tax is $250 billion at a quarterly rate ($1 trillion at an annual rate).
In 2017-18 did the US indices receive a "hall pass" or "bear immunity" from a "flight to safety" and corporate tax repatriation?
Was the playing of this "Trump card" how any perceived US "bear" hunt got delayed an additional 9 months, until October 2018? TBD.
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