Consumer Spending Surge?
Following up on TEU Be Cass-T Down?
Real DPI increased less than 0.1% in February, and real PCE decreased less than 0.1%. Looking at Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Q12019 vs Q42018, spending on goods was a disaster decreasing $8B from 4,614T to 4,606T.
Durable goods taking the brunt with a $23B decline from 1,692T to 1,669T. Automotive motor vehicles and parts accounting for most of the big hit with a $26B decline from 526B to 500B
Services spending increased $43B from 8,444T to 8,487T but not in a good way. Household services increased $48B from 8,054T to 8,102T with four major non productive contributors.
Healthcare and prescriptions led the way increasing $35B from 2,734T to 2,769T; Insurance increased $9B from 862B to 871B; Housing and utilities increased $7B from 2,199T to 2,206T; and finally Communications (Cable - Phone - Internet) increased $7B from 343B to 350B.
Meanwhile, Personal income excluding current transfer receipts declined $106B from Dec 13,759T to Mar 13,653T; while Real Disposable Personal Income also declined $45B from Dec 14,640T to Mar 14,595T.
With income on the decline, how did those cost of living price increases in rent, utilities, prescriptions, healthcare, insurance and communication plans get paid for?
Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, Dec 7.7%; Jan 7.2%; Feb 7.3%; Mar 6.5% for a decline of 16%. Confirming...
Since December 2018 Personal Saving has tracked as follows: Dec $1.23T; Jan $1.15T; Feb $1.16T; Mar $1.03T for a drawdown of 0.20T or -16%.
Summary: Goods spending tanked, while services spending on necessities such as housing, utilities, healthcare, medicine, insurance were solely responsible for the biggest jump in spending since 2009, viz. this is not healthy consumption spending.
Since November there has been a concomitant 16% draw down in real disposable income and savings. What is going to light this candle or 5 alarm fire waiting to happen?
More to come in Record Low Unemployment? Stay tuned, no flippin.
"U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in more than 9-1/2 years in March. The surge in consumer spending sets a stronger base for growth in consumption heading into the second quarter after it slowed sharply in the first three months of the year. " - ReutersThat was the spin on the April 29th with the BEA's March 2019 Personal Income and Outlays report. Do you really think we're buying into that MSM tripe? Upon further review...
Real DPI increased less than 0.1% in February, and real PCE decreased less than 0.1%. Looking at Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Q12019 vs Q42018, spending on goods was a disaster decreasing $8B from 4,614T to 4,606T.
Durable goods taking the brunt with a $23B decline from 1,692T to 1,669T. Automotive motor vehicles and parts accounting for most of the big hit with a $26B decline from 526B to 500B
Services spending increased $43B from 8,444T to 8,487T but not in a good way. Household services increased $48B from 8,054T to 8,102T with four major non productive contributors.
Healthcare and prescriptions led the way increasing $35B from 2,734T to 2,769T; Insurance increased $9B from 862B to 871B; Housing and utilities increased $7B from 2,199T to 2,206T; and finally Communications (Cable - Phone - Internet) increased $7B from 343B to 350B.
Meanwhile, Personal income excluding current transfer receipts declined $106B from Dec 13,759T to Mar 13,653T; while Real Disposable Personal Income also declined $45B from Dec 14,640T to Mar 14,595T.
With income on the decline, how did those cost of living price increases in rent, utilities, prescriptions, healthcare, insurance and communication plans get paid for?
Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, Dec 7.7%; Jan 7.2%; Feb 7.3%; Mar 6.5% for a decline of 16%. Confirming...
Since December 2018 Personal Saving has tracked as follows: Dec $1.23T; Jan $1.15T; Feb $1.16T; Mar $1.03T for a drawdown of 0.20T or -16%.
Summary: Goods spending tanked, while services spending on necessities such as housing, utilities, healthcare, medicine, insurance were solely responsible for the biggest jump in spending since 2009, viz. this is not healthy consumption spending.
Since November there has been a concomitant 16% draw down in real disposable income and savings. What is going to light this candle or 5 alarm fire waiting to happen?
More to come in Record Low Unemployment? Stay tuned, no flippin.
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