Record Low Unemployment?
Following up on Consumer Spending Surge? ...
With the Goon dunking the Dude's head in the toilet, Lebowski: It's... it's... it's down there somewhere; let me take another look...
Above, unemployment declining -7% from Jan 2010 high 10.6% to current 3.6%. Happy Days Are Here Again!!!! Not so fast Joe, or you finish outside... lets digress a bit through the last few pieces of parrot food the guvmint and MSM have attempted to feed us....
With regard to the Q1 +3.2% output surge in Q1 GDP Surge?
With regard to the largest consumer PCE spending surge since 2009, in Consumer Spending Surge?
Note: concomitant participation rate declining -4.1% from July 2008 66.8% to current 62.7%. It took almost 11 years for that decline. Interesting codicil: 11 years prior in July 1997, the participation rate peaked at 68.1%, so it took exactly the same amount of time to decline only -1.3%?? What gives in the last 11 years for participation to decline at a +3X rate from the prior 11 years?
A prescient post from Salmo Trutta...
More to come in The 4th Proxy: One Step Beyond? and Writing On The Wall? Stay tuned, no flippin.
“Don’t believe those phony numbers. When you hear 4.9 and five-per-cent unemployment, the number’s probably twenty-eight, twenty-nine, as high as thirty-five—in fact, I even heard recently forty-two per cent. That’s just a phony number to make the politicians look good. The five-per-cent figure is one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics.” - POTUS 45Forget it, Donny, you're out of your element? May 3rd, the BLS announces the lowest unemployment since 1969 at 3.6%. Goon: WHERE'S THE F*CKIN' MONEY, SH*THEEEAAD?!
With the Goon dunking the Dude's head in the toilet, Lebowski: It's... it's... it's down there somewhere; let me take another look...
With regard to the Q1 +3.2% output surge in Q1 GDP Surge?
Long term since Q1 1982, 107 quarters (73%) DOWN trending vs 40 quarters (27%) UP trending.
Near term since Q1 2000, 8 quarters (10%) UP trending vs 69 quarters (90%) DOWN trending.Not exactly the record of a consistent bustling or robust economy?
With regard to the largest consumer PCE spending surge since 2009, in Consumer Spending Surge?
"Summary: Goods spending tanked, while services spending on necessities such as housing, utilities, healthcare, medicine, insurance were solely responsible for the biggest jump in spending since 2009, viz. this is not healthy consumption spending. Since November there has been a concomitant 16% draw down in real disposable income and savings."Spending on goods tanked, savings and real disposable income are down? This is starting to sound pretty grim. How are we managing to get any growth?
@"B"isForBob "As I understand it, debt-fueled growth is "OK" so long as wages grow at a corresponding rate to debt. But that hasn't been the case for several decades."Well at least unemployment is at a 50 year low. Not so fast Joe, or you finish outside... speaking of several decades, and referring back to the chart above, the 3.6% unemployment rate = number of unemployed persons / labor force.
Note: concomitant participation rate declining -4.1% from July 2008 66.8% to current 62.7%. It took almost 11 years for that decline. Interesting codicil: 11 years prior in July 1997, the participation rate peaked at 68.1%, so it took exactly the same amount of time to decline only -1.3%?? What gives in the last 11 years for participation to decline at a +3X rate from the prior 11 years?
A prescient post from Salmo Trutta...
"So according to Batra’s “wage-gap” theory, a rising wage-gap creates exponential growth in debt, which in turn generates an exponential rise in profits, leading to the share price bubble.
Supply = Demand (thus when wages trail productivity, creating a wage gap, other things remaining unchanged, there must be a rise in unemployment).
The writing is on the wall so to speak."Begging the Lebowski goons question...
More to come in The 4th Proxy: One Step Beyond? and Writing On The Wall? Stay tuned, no flippin.
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