Inflection Introspection?
An introspective review of the six seasonal inflection points in monetary flows for 2018 and 2019.
Seasonal inflection points in 2018:
#1) ↓ 3rd week in Jan.
From 01/29 - 02/09
Nas futures -883
#2) ↑ mid Mar.
From 03/13 - 04/04
Nas futures -907
#3) ↓ May 5
05/03 - 05/07
Nas futures +313
This inflection was critical in pulling the market up from the mid March nose dive to continue the "bull" run.
#4) ↑ mid Jun.
06/21 - 06/28
Nas futures -400
#5) ↓ July 21 - but could be late this year...
07/25 - 07/30
Nas futures -370
#6) ↑ 2-3 week in Oct. (TBD)...
Major and came 3 weeks early.
10/01 - 12/25
Nas futures -1905
Four of six inflection points were inverted viz. reversed polarity.
Inflection:
1. In math, a point of a curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs.
2. In business, a time of significant change in conditions; a turning point.
A. where the second derivative of f'' (x) vanishes and changes sign at the point.
B. or a point where the second derivative vanishes, but does not change sign, is sometimes called an undulation point.
Moving West...
2019 Inflection Points
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. (1/30/2019)
Inverted major which came 3 - 4 weeks early.
12/25 - 01/18
Nas futures +1005
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Feb. (2/13/2019) or March
Three weeks late
03/08 - 03/22
Nas futures +605
Pivot ↓ #3 May 5, (5/3/2019)
05/03 - 06/03
Nas futures -931
Pivot ↑ #4 mid Jun. (6/19/2019)
06/14 - 07/24
Nas futures +630
Pivot ↓ #5 July 21, (7/24/2019)
07/24 - 08/06
Nas futures -827
Pivot ↑ #6 2-3 week in Oct. (10/23/2019)
TBD
Like last year, this inflection could come early and be inverted or not.
Recommended reading:
The 6 Seasonal Inflection Points
Economic flows are driven by payments: bank debits to deposit accounts, principally thru “total checkable deposits”, as all payments clear thru the Federal Reserve System.
There are 6 seasonal, endogenous, economic inflection points each year. These seasonal factors are pre-determined, based on the distributed lag effect of money flows, by the FRB-NY’s "trading desk" operations, executing the FOMC's monetary policy directives.
Monetary flows (volume X’s transactions velocity) measures money flow’s impact on production, prices, and the economy... it is an economic indicator (not necessarily an equity barometer). - The 6 Seasonal Inflection PointsItalicized from August 13, 2018 Timing Is Everything? ....
Seasonal inflection points in 2018:
#1) ↓ 3rd week in Jan.
From 01/29 - 02/09
Nas futures -883
#2) ↑ mid Mar.
From 03/13 - 04/04
Nas futures -907
#3) ↓ May 5
05/03 - 05/07
Nas futures +313
This inflection was critical in pulling the market up from the mid March nose dive to continue the "bull" run.
#4) ↑ mid Jun.
06/21 - 06/28
Nas futures -400
#5) ↓ July 21 - but could be late this year...
07/25 - 07/30
Nas futures -370
#6) ↑ 2-3 week in Oct. (TBD)...
Major and came 3 weeks early.
10/01 - 12/25
Nas futures -1905
Four of six inflection points were inverted viz. reversed polarity.
Inflection:
1. In math, a point of a curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs.
2. In business, a time of significant change in conditions; a turning point.
A. where the second derivative of f'' (x) vanishes and changes sign at the point.
B. or a point where the second derivative vanishes, but does not change sign, is sometimes called an undulation point.
Moving West...
2019 Inflection Points
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. (1/30/2019)
Inverted major which came 3 - 4 weeks early.
12/25 - 01/18
Nas futures +1005
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Feb. (2/13/2019) or March
Three weeks late
03/08 - 03/22
Nas futures +605
Pivot ↓ #3 May 5, (5/3/2019)
05/03 - 06/03
Nas futures -931
Pivot ↑ #4 mid Jun. (6/19/2019)
06/14 - 07/24
Nas futures +630
Pivot ↓ #5 July 21, (7/24/2019)
07/24 - 08/06
Nas futures -827
Pivot ↑ #6 2-3 week in Oct. (10/23/2019)
TBD
Like last year, this inflection could come early and be inverted or not.
Recommended reading:
The 6 Seasonal Inflection Points
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