VIX: All Weird and Pissed Off?
We found this Aug 29th Tweet to be cogent, prescient and anything but the "non actionable statistical noise" that we follow (highly recommend you do so) Oddstats for...
July 23 1990 - +51.5% to 23.68 - Mini Bear Begins - McDonald's Healthy Fries cause a 12pt circuit breaker to be imposed as SP500 -3.5% in the morning, closing -1.75%. Markets peaked shortly after beef tallow was replaced with a blend of vegetable oils.
As investors realized this change would forever ruin the best tasting french fry in the world, markets -18% in August and -12% over the next 90 days. More on this later, and with the much needed LOL of the day out of the way, now seriously folks...
Aug 19, 1991 - +32.4% to 21.19 - Gorby Out - SP500 -2.36% as a coup orchestrated by hard-line Communists removed Mikhail Gorbachev as president of the Soviet Union. Markets +4.62% the following week and +0.78% next 90 days.
Nov 15, 1991 - +51.7% to 21.18 - More Economic Concerns - Largest decline since 1989 mini crash -3.66%. Markets -1.69% the following week and +7.8% next 90 days.
April 27, 2010 - +30.6% to 30.6 - European Debt Crisis - as SP cut Greece's debt rating to junk and lowered Portugal's. -2.3% DJIA biggest one day point drop since July 15, 2009. Prior, the Dow and SP500 were just shy of 19 month highs, while the Nasdaq was at the highest point in nearly two years. Over the next 2 months DJIA -19%.
June 24, 2016 +49.3% to 25.76 - Brexit announced - DJIA -611; NDX -202; SP500 -76; A/D ratio negative 6-to-1 on the NYSE. Over the next 3 months +6%.
Feb 5, 2018 - +115.6% to 37.32 - Synchronized Global Growth Hoax - UST10 yield spiked to a four-year high of 2.85% Friday prior. Monday POTUS45 announces solid economy. DJIA -1600, close -1175 -4.6% the biggest decline since August 2011, during the European debt crisis. Over the next 3 months -1.7%
Mar 22, 2018 - +33.3% to 23.81 - Tweet Wars - DJIA -2.9% on initial China tariff announcement.
Oct 10, 2018 - +43.9% to 22.96 - More Growth Hoax - UST10 traded around 3.23 percent a day after hitting its highest level since 2011. The tech sector had its worst day in seven years, leading the Dow to its worst day in eight months. DJIA -832 points; SPX -95 points NDX -316 points or -4%.
Aug 5, 2019 - +40.8% to 24.81 - More Tweet Wars - SP500 -3% as additional tariffs on Chinese products and services didn't go down well with investors.
Aug 12, 2019 - +18.3% to 21.26 - Inversion Fears - USD/CNY Fix - Hong Kong protests. Losses accelerated into the final hour of trading UST 2-10 spread only 6bps, near its lowest level since 2007. Monday marked the ninth consecutive trading session of an at least 1% intraday move in the SP500.
Aug 14 2019 - +29.6% to 22.71 - UST 10 and 2 invert - Recession Fears - DJIA -3% worst day of year.
Now that you know, although MCD stock was "battered" on the healthy fry announcement, in all seriousness the 1990 mini bear started June 23rd with government figures on the savings and loan bailout effect on the federal deficit for June, and worsening economic conditions being cited. Along those lines...
Regarding Nov 15, 1991 more economic concerns... On the 1st of November, speaking to a group of small business executives at the White House, Bush Sr. said "The economy has turned the corner". Many still feel he omitted "flipped over three times, struck a tree, and burst into flames". We kid the President, RIP George...
FYI, the actual quote is mentioned by Sen. Sarbanes in this priceless Jan 10,1992 C-Span video replete with Greenspan testimony. Warning: watching this WABAC machine video can cause severe depression and agitation. How so?
Within a few minutes, the viewer will swear that all the problems discussed are identical to present day. This leads to the realization that in the 27 ensuing years, our highly expensive government has done absolutely NOTHING to those ends, and have in fact made the situation worse. Back on track...
3 of those 11 historical days occurred in August 2019... we believe the large gyrations of late are tremors in the force, much the seismic activity before a large earthquake, volcanic eruption or a star getting ready to super nova and shrink to a black hole. Below our retweet and comment along with the video seems apropos, we think.
For inquiring minds, here is a run down on the "events of the day" which precipitated the market action...In the history of $VIX, it has only closed [under 18 one day] only to [close above 21 the next day] eleven times.— OddStats (@OddStats) August 29, 2019
3 of those 11 times are within the past 4 weeks.
Odd.
Here are the events.
[data: Yahoo Finance] pic.twitter.com/H7MNofUf29
July 23 1990 - +51.5% to 23.68 - Mini Bear Begins - McDonald's Healthy Fries cause a 12pt circuit breaker to be imposed as SP500 -3.5% in the morning, closing -1.75%. Markets peaked shortly after beef tallow was replaced with a blend of vegetable oils.
As investors realized this change would forever ruin the best tasting french fry in the world, markets -18% in August and -12% over the next 90 days. More on this later, and with the much needed LOL of the day out of the way, now seriously folks...
Aug 19, 1991 - +32.4% to 21.19 - Gorby Out - SP500 -2.36% as a coup orchestrated by hard-line Communists removed Mikhail Gorbachev as president of the Soviet Union. Markets +4.62% the following week and +0.78% next 90 days.
Nov 15, 1991 - +51.7% to 21.18 - More Economic Concerns - Largest decline since 1989 mini crash -3.66%. Markets -1.69% the following week and +7.8% next 90 days.
April 27, 2010 - +30.6% to 30.6 - European Debt Crisis - as SP cut Greece's debt rating to junk and lowered Portugal's. -2.3% DJIA biggest one day point drop since July 15, 2009. Prior, the Dow and SP500 were just shy of 19 month highs, while the Nasdaq was at the highest point in nearly two years. Over the next 2 months DJIA -19%.
June 24, 2016 +49.3% to 25.76 - Brexit announced - DJIA -611; NDX -202; SP500 -76; A/D ratio negative 6-to-1 on the NYSE. Over the next 3 months +6%.
Feb 5, 2018 - +115.6% to 37.32 - Synchronized Global Growth Hoax - UST10 yield spiked to a four-year high of 2.85% Friday prior. Monday POTUS45 announces solid economy. DJIA -1600, close -1175 -4.6% the biggest decline since August 2011, during the European debt crisis. Over the next 3 months -1.7%
Mar 22, 2018 - +33.3% to 23.81 - Tweet Wars - DJIA -2.9% on initial China tariff announcement.
Oct 10, 2018 - +43.9% to 22.96 - More Growth Hoax - UST10 traded around 3.23 percent a day after hitting its highest level since 2011. The tech sector had its worst day in seven years, leading the Dow to its worst day in eight months. DJIA -832 points; SPX -95 points NDX -316 points or -4%.
Aug 5, 2019 - +40.8% to 24.81 - More Tweet Wars - SP500 -3% as additional tariffs on Chinese products and services didn't go down well with investors.
Aug 12, 2019 - +18.3% to 21.26 - Inversion Fears - USD/CNY Fix - Hong Kong protests. Losses accelerated into the final hour of trading UST 2-10 spread only 6bps, near its lowest level since 2007. Monday marked the ninth consecutive trading session of an at least 1% intraday move in the SP500.
Aug 14 2019 - +29.6% to 22.71 - UST 10 and 2 invert - Recession Fears - DJIA -3% worst day of year.
Now that you know, although MCD stock was "battered" on the healthy fry announcement, in all seriousness the 1990 mini bear started June 23rd with government figures on the savings and loan bailout effect on the federal deficit for June, and worsening economic conditions being cited. Along those lines...
Regarding Nov 15, 1991 more economic concerns... On the 1st of November, speaking to a group of small business executives at the White House, Bush Sr. said "The economy has turned the corner". Many still feel he omitted "flipped over three times, struck a tree, and burst into flames". We kid the President, RIP George...
FYI, the actual quote is mentioned by Sen. Sarbanes in this priceless Jan 10,1992 C-Span video replete with Greenspan testimony. Warning: watching this WABAC machine video can cause severe depression and agitation. How so?
Within a few minutes, the viewer will swear that all the problems discussed are identical to present day. This leads to the realization that in the 27 ensuing years, our highly expensive government has done absolutely NOTHING to those ends, and have in fact made the situation worse. Back on track...
3 of those 11 historical days occurred in August 2019... we believe the large gyrations of late are tremors in the force, much the seismic activity before a large earthquake, volcanic eruption or a star getting ready to super nova and shrink to a black hole. Below our retweet and comment along with the video seems apropos, we think.
Odd? I don't care if you think it's all weird and pissed off, you just keep that odd stuff comin. Those 3 occurrences of late, are a sign of some "Thing" major a foot. @OddStats https://t.co/grbhUdWMXa https://t.co/RbpMdkW6Tf— The Nattering Naybob (@NaybobNattering) August 29, 2019
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