2019 NFL Wild Card Ruminations?

In this weeks divisional round...

#5 SEA vs #2 GB; #6 MIN vs #1 SF; #4 HOU vs #2KC; #6 TEN vs #1 BAL




Did you know? - In the 1969 AFL playoffs, the top two teams from the East and West divisions qualified (#W2 vs #E1; #E2 vs #W1). The Kansas City Chiefs finished #2 in the West and went on to win the Super Bowl.  This technically makes the 69 Chiefs, the 1st non division winner or wild card to win a Super Bowl. 

Post NFL-AFL merger, in 1970 with three divisions in each conference, a #4 seed or wild card was added to the playoffs.  Until the advent of seeding in 1975, home field was determined by a pre-ordained rotation. 

The #4 seed 1975 Dallas Cowboys were the 1st wild card to reach the Super Bowl, but lost to the Steelers.

With the addition of a #5 seed, the wild card playoff round was added in 1978 (#5 vs #4), while the 3 division winners received a bye.

The #5 seed 1978 Houston Oilers were the 1st #5 seed to reach a conference title game, but lost to the Steelers.

The #4 seed 1980 Oakland Raiders were the 1st wild card to win a Super Bowl.

The #5 seed 1985 New England Patriots were the 1st to win three playoff games (courtesy of 16 opponent turnovers) on the road, only to be humiliated by the Bears in the Super Bowl.

In 1990, a #6 seed was added with the #1 and #2 seeds receiving a bye (Wild Card Weekend #6 vs #3;#5 vs #4) since...

The #4 1992 Buffalo Bills lost to Dallas in the Super Bowl.
The #4 1997 Denver Broncos beat Green Bay in the Super Bowl.
The #4 1999 Tennessee Titans lost to St. Louis the Super Bowl.
The #4 2000 Baltimore Ravens beat the Giants in the Super Bowl.

All those #4 seeds hosted a wild card game.

In 2002, realignment created four divisions in each conference, and #4 seeds (NY Giants 2011, Baltimore Ravens 2012) were division winners and no longer wild cards.

The #6 2005 Steelers were the 2nd to win three playoff games on the road,  the first #6 to advance to a conference title game, and the first #6 to win a Super Bowl.

The #5 2007 New York Giants were the 3rd to win three playoff games on the road, and the first and only #5 seed to win a Super Bowl.

The 2008 #6 Ravens and #6 Eagles advanced to their respective title games, only to lose.

The 2010 #6 Green Bay Packers matched the 05 Steelers Super Bowl feat. In irony, they defeated the Steelers in the Super Bowl, and were the 4th to win three playoff games on the road.  The 2010 #6 New York Jets lost in the AFC conference title game.

Little known facts Normy...

Since the advent of seeding in 1975 through 2018, 22 of 88 (25%) #1 seeds have lost their 1st playoff game.

Since 1990, of the 58 #6 seeds, 53 or 91.3% failed to advance past the divisional round. Of the 58 #1 seeds, 5 (8.6%) have lost to a #6 seed.

Since 1970, of 204 wild card teams (#4, #5, #6) only ten (4.9%) have appeared in a Super Bowl, with six (2.9%) winning the Lombardi Trophy.

Since 1978, of 140 #5 and #6 seeds only four (2.8%) have won 3 road games (wild card, divisional, conference) to reach the Super Bowl.

Since 1975 the 44 Super Bowl winners by seed: 
#1 (25) 56.8% 
#2 (09) 20.4% 
#3 (02) 04.5% 
#4 (05) 11.3% 
#5 (01) 02.2% 
#6 (02) 04.5%

#1 and #2 seeds have a 77% success rate, while all others combined 23%.

Strike year 1982 with 16 playoff teams is excluded.

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