Inflection Introspection 2020?
With an eye towards 2020, an introspective review of the six seasonal inflection points in monetary flows for 2018 and 2019.
Seasonal inflection points in 2018:
#1) ↓ 3rd week in Jan.
From 01/29 - 02/09
Nas futures -883
#2) ↑ mid Mar.
From 03/13 - 04/04
Nas futures -907 (Inverted)
#3) ↓ May 5
05/03 - 05/07
Nas futures +313 (Inverted)
This inflection was critical in pulling the market up from the mid March nose dive to continue the "bull" run.
#4) ↑ mid Jun.
06/21 - 06/28
Nas futures -400 (Inverted)
#5) ↓ July 21 - but could be late this year...
07/25 - 07/30
Nas futures -370
#6) ↑ 2-3 week in Oct. (TBD)...
Major and came 3 weeks early.
10/01 - 12/25
Nas futures -1905 (Inverted)
In 2018 four of six inflection points (#2 March, #3 May, #4 Jun, #6 Oct) were INVERTED viz. reversed polarity. And now this...
Inflection:
1. In math, a point of a curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs.
2. In business, a time of significant change in conditions; a turning point.
A. where the second derivative of f'' (x) vanishes and changes sign at the point.
B. or a point where the second derivative vanishes, but does not change sign, is sometimes called an undulation point.
Moving West... Below italicized from September 4, 2019 Inflection Introspection?
Seasonal inflection points in 2019:
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. (1/30/2019)
Inverted major which came 3 - 4 weeks early.
12/25 - 01/18
Nas futures +1005 (Inverted)
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Feb. (2/13/2019) or March
Three weeks late
03/08 - 03/22
Nas futures +605
Pivot ↓ #3 May 5, (5/3/2019)
05/03 - 06/03
Nas futures -931
Pivot ↑ #4 mid Jun. (6/19/2019)
06/14 - 07/24
Nas futures +630
Pivot ↓ #5 July 21, (7/24/2019)
07/24 - 08/06
Nas futures -827
Pivot ↑ #6 2-3 week in Oct. (10/23/2019)
Major and like 2018 came three weeks early
10/03 - Present
Nas futures +1250 est.
In 2019 one of six inflection points (#1 January) was INVERTED viz. reversed polarity.
When is the next seasonal inflection point? And could it be inverted? Based on seasonality...
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. (1/29/2020)
2020's Pivot #1 could come as early as January 3rd, circa 15th or month end 29th, and could be inverted. Due to massive FED repo ruckus intervention, is tough to say and YMMV.
Ready or not, its a new decade and here we come.
Recommended reading:
The 6 Seasonal Inflection Points
Timing Is Everything?
Inflection Introspection?
Economic flows are driven by payments: bank debits to deposit accounts, principally thru “total checkable deposits”, as all payments clear thru the Federal Reserve System.
There are 6 seasonal, endogenous, economic inflection points each year. These seasonal factors are pre-determined, based on the distributed lag effect of money flows, by the FRB-NY’s "trading desk" operations, executing the FOMC's monetary policy directives.
Monetary flows (volume X’s transactions velocity) measures money flow’s impact on production, prices, and the economy... it is an economic indicator (not necessarily an equity barometer). - S. TruttaBelow italicized from August 13, 2018 Timing Is Everything? ....
Seasonal inflection points in 2018:
#1) ↓ 3rd week in Jan.
From 01/29 - 02/09
Nas futures -883
#2) ↑ mid Mar.
From 03/13 - 04/04
Nas futures -907 (Inverted)
#3) ↓ May 5
05/03 - 05/07
Nas futures +313 (Inverted)
This inflection was critical in pulling the market up from the mid March nose dive to continue the "bull" run.
#4) ↑ mid Jun.
06/21 - 06/28
Nas futures -400 (Inverted)
#5) ↓ July 21 - but could be late this year...
07/25 - 07/30
Nas futures -370
#6) ↑ 2-3 week in Oct. (TBD)...
Major and came 3 weeks early.
10/01 - 12/25
Nas futures -1905 (Inverted)
In 2018 four of six inflection points (#2 March, #3 May, #4 Jun, #6 Oct) were INVERTED viz. reversed polarity. And now this...
Inflection:
1. In math, a point of a curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs.
2. In business, a time of significant change in conditions; a turning point.
A. where the second derivative of f'' (x) vanishes and changes sign at the point.
B. or a point where the second derivative vanishes, but does not change sign, is sometimes called an undulation point.
Seasonal inflection points in 2019:
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. (1/30/2019)
Inverted major which came 3 - 4 weeks early.
12/25 - 01/18
Nas futures +1005 (Inverted)
Pivot ↑ #2 mid Feb. (2/13/2019) or March
Three weeks late
03/08 - 03/22
Nas futures +605
Pivot ↓ #3 May 5, (5/3/2019)
05/03 - 06/03
Nas futures -931
Pivot ↑ #4 mid Jun. (6/19/2019)
06/14 - 07/24
Nas futures +630
Pivot ↓ #5 July 21, (7/24/2019)
07/24 - 08/06
Nas futures -827
Pivot ↑ #6 2-3 week in Oct. (10/23/2019)
Major and like 2018 came three weeks early
10/03 - Present
Nas futures +1250 est.
In 2019 one of six inflection points (#1 January) was INVERTED viz. reversed polarity.
When is the next seasonal inflection point? And could it be inverted? Based on seasonality...
Pivot ↓ #1 3rd week in Jan. (1/29/2020)
2020's Pivot #1 could come as early as January 3rd, circa 15th or month end 29th, and could be inverted. Due to massive FED repo ruckus intervention, is tough to say and YMMV.
Ready or not, its a new decade and here we come.
Recommended reading:
The 6 Seasonal Inflection Points
Timing Is Everything?
Inflection Introspection?
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