2019 nCoV - Pleased To Meet You?

The viral pneumonia-like lung illness scare sets up a potential reverse point wave signal on the 29th. -  Jan 21, 2020. 04:56 PM - @Salmo Trutta

To this prescience we Nattered... Pleased to meet you, hope you guess my name ...  Captain Trips? (not Uncle Jerry's LSD). - Jan 21, 2020. 06:07 PM 

And the thought police decided to delete (censored) our original comment above.

"SPX 3196 a beautiful entry point"  - 27 Jan 2020, 09:19 AM - @"B"isForBob 

We Nattered... Careful what you wish for, when China reopens Monday 02/03, you may get that and much, much more. - 31 Jan 2020, 12:17 PM 

02/03/2020 - This AM China SZSE -9%; now off -12.7% from 01/20 near term high.

In any event, the viral entry point was communicated officially 01/20, 10 yr yield signaled 01/08; Hang Seng 01/14; RUT 01/17; Chinese New Year started 01/25.  Moving West...

The "viral" effect depends on the R0 (the basic reproduction number—R0, pronounced R-nought) and mortality rate.

R0 for 2019 - nCoV is thought to be 2.5?? So on average every case will spawn 2.5 new cases. The R0 represents potential reproduction, not actual which is affected by many factors. 

Points of reference: fictional Captain Trips R0 = 5, SARS (2 to 5), HIV (2 to 5), measles (12 to 16) and the 1918 Spanish Flu = mean of 2.  

Further, actual reproduction and curing rate will yield a final death toll or mortality rate.  The deadliest virus in history, the 1918 Spanish Flu had a 12% mortality rate = 20% of 2 billion population = 400 million infected * 0.12 = est 48 million dead.

8,000 individuals developed SARS, nearly 800 of whom died of the illness (mortality rate of approximately 10%), before it was controlled in 2003. MERS continues to resurface in sporadic cases. A total of 2,465 laboratory-confirmed cases of MERS have been reported since 2012, resulting in 850 deaths (mortality rate of 34.5%). - Medscape

A day to remember... although it started December 8th; (given incubation probably three weeks earlier) the gene was sequenced January 10, and  confirmed to be communicable human to human January 20, advertised stats since...

infected 17485 (100%); cured 506 (3%) and mortality 362 (2%) with all three percentages holding steady.

What is curious...  Given the current data demonstrating it takes seven (7) days or greater for those mildly infected to become seriously ill and hospitalized...

In other words, seven days or less for mild symptoms to subside.  The total number of unknown or TBD status (95%) keeps doubling every 2 - 3 days.

Question: Are the 95% infected since January 20 (now fourteen - 14 - days ago) suffering greater or worse than mild infections?  And what will be their ultimate disposition?

The question you have to ask yourself, do you feel lucky? or like Blair?

Required Reading:
Mapping 2019 nCoV
Johns Hopkins CSSE Dashboard