2019 NFL Picks Against The Spread - Final Edition
Drum roll please, once again, rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that "picking your seat" or "content down loading time" to good use?
To be found filed under SB, (not for Super Bowl, but Shameless Bragadoccio) - over the last three years, the paid pundits, network glory boyz (RIP Bill King), "credentialed" NFL analysts, and Vegas touts charging for their "insider info" are not even close...
Our 2 year (2017 and 2018) total 298-226-10 in picking ALL 534 NFL games against the spread surpasses all others. This year, our NCAA CFP 2019 Football Bowl Predictions 27-14 (66%) ATS, our NFL ATS LOX 63-37 (63%), and we were a smokin 13-2 (87%) ATS in the playoffs...
Our 2017 retrospective of George Plimpton in Paper Lion seems apropos? For a recap of our award winning 2017 and 2018 ATS records click here. Moving West...
Results Super Bowl LIV
02/02 18:30 ET +2.5 SF 20 @ 31 KC (Miami Gardens)
For more interesting playoff factoids see our posts... 2019 Wild Card Ruminations?, 2019 Divisional Divisiveness?, 2019 NFL Super Bowl LIV Spectacular?, Super Bowl LIV - Cover 3 Frontline?, Super Bowl LIV - 21 Jumpstreet Runtime? and Super Bowl LIV: Groundhog Day?
LOCKS
Wk01 3-1 75%
Wk02 3-1 75%
Wk03 2-2 50%
Wk04 3-1 75%
Wk05 4-1 80%
Wk06 4-0 100%
Wk07 3-2 60%
Wk08 3-1 75%
Wk09 1-3 25%
Wk10 2-3 40%
Wk11 1-3 25%
Wk12 2-2 50%
Wk13 5-2 71%
Wk14 5-1 83%
Wk15 0-7 00%
Wk16 3-1 75%
Wk17 6-4 60%
Wc18 7-1 88%
Dv 19 4-0 100%
Ch 20 2-0 100%
Sb 21 0-1 00%
YTD 63-37 63%
Public money ATS:
Wk01 06-10 38%
Wk02 07-09 44%
Wk03 11-05 69%
Wk04 04-11 27%
Wk05 10-05 67%
Wk06 07-07 50%
Wk07 05-09 36%
Wk08 05-10 33%
Wk09 08-06 57%
Wk10 07-06 54%
Wk11 10-04 71%
Wk12 06-08 43%
Wk13 07-09 44%
Wk14 12-04 75%
Wk15 08-08 50%
Wk16 08-08 50%
Wk17 09-07 56%
Wc18 02-02 50%
Dv 19 02-02 50%
Ch 20 02-00 100%
Sb 21 01-00 100%
YTD 137-130 51%
COVER BOX: On the year, road teams and especially road pooches outperformed. At the bottom of the post Home vs Road vs Fav vs Dog for each week.
Sb 21
Fav 01 H01 R00
Dog 00 H00 R00
Home 01 Road 00
As always we reserve the right to shop and take the best line that came available, early, opening or otherwise, and to change our picks prior to kickoff. This year we are taking pushes as wins.
Resources - Use Them Wisely
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline. Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 17, 2019, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 1-16. Weekly "advance" lines from the Westgate can be found here and here, and weekly look ahead's from Fairway Jay.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, as from our experience he might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference, for insight from outside the box Football Outsiders DVOA, for tracking the pundits NFL Pickwatch, and for statistical tracking of prediction systems the unequaled The Prediction Tracker.
Roster and Depth Chart info Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads, weekly probs FiveThirtyEight, Playoffstatus for post season probs, playoff picture AFC; NFC, SOS AFC ; NFC ; injuries CBS Sports, additional in depth stats and graphics Sharp Football Stats, for running simulations NFL Game Sim and predictions WhatIfSports.
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
YTD Lox
Totals (Over/Under) games (4 good lox) excluded
To be found filed under SB, (not for Super Bowl, but Shameless Bragadoccio) - over the last three years, the paid pundits, network glory boyz (RIP Bill King), "credentialed" NFL analysts, and Vegas touts charging for their "insider info" are not even close...
Our 2 year (2017 and 2018) total 298-226-10 in picking ALL 534 NFL games against the spread surpasses all others. This year, our NCAA CFP 2019 Football Bowl Predictions 27-14 (66%) ATS, our NFL ATS LOX 63-37 (63%), and we were a smokin 13-2 (87%) ATS in the playoffs...
Our 2017 retrospective of George Plimpton in Paper Lion seems apropos? For a recap of our award winning 2017 and 2018 ATS records click here. Moving West...
Results Super Bowl LIV
02/02 18:30 ET +2.5 SF 20 @ 31 KC (Miami Gardens)
For more interesting playoff factoids see our posts... 2019 Wild Card Ruminations?, 2019 Divisional Divisiveness?, 2019 NFL Super Bowl LIV Spectacular?, Super Bowl LIV - Cover 3 Frontline?, Super Bowl LIV - 21 Jumpstreet Runtime? and Super Bowl LIV: Groundhog Day?
LOCKS
Wk01 3-1 75%
Wk02 3-1 75%
Wk03 2-2 50%
Wk04 3-1 75%
Wk05 4-1 80%
Wk06 4-0 100%
Wk07 3-2 60%
Wk08 3-1 75%
Wk09 1-3 25%
Wk10 2-3 40%
Wk11 1-3 25%
Wk12 2-2 50%
Wk13 5-2 71%
Wk14 5-1 83%
Wk15 0-7 00%
Wk16 3-1 75%
Wk17 6-4 60%
Wc18 7-1 88%
Dv 19 4-0 100%
Ch 20 2-0 100%
Sb 21 0-1 00%
YTD 63-37 63%
Public money ATS:
Wk01 06-10 38%
Wk02 07-09 44%
Wk03 11-05 69%
Wk04 04-11 27%
Wk05 10-05 67%
Wk06 07-07 50%
Wk07 05-09 36%
Wk08 05-10 33%
Wk09 08-06 57%
Wk10 07-06 54%
Wk11 10-04 71%
Wk12 06-08 43%
Wk13 07-09 44%
Wk14 12-04 75%
Wk15 08-08 50%
Wk16 08-08 50%
Wk17 09-07 56%
Wc18 02-02 50%
Dv 19 02-02 50%
Ch 20 02-00 100%
Sb 21 01-00 100%
YTD 137-130 51%
COVER BOX: On the year, road teams and especially road pooches outperformed. At the bottom of the post Home vs Road vs Fav vs Dog for each week.
Sb 21
Fav 01 H01 R00
Dog 00 H00 R00
Home 01 Road 00
As always we reserve the right to shop and take the best line that came available, early, opening or otherwise, and to change our picks prior to kickoff. This year we are taking pushes as wins.
Resources - Use Them Wisely
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline. Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 17, 2019, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 1-16. Weekly "advance" lines from the Westgate can be found here and here, and weekly look ahead's from Fairway Jay.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, as from our experience he might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference, for insight from outside the box Football Outsiders DVOA, for tracking the pundits NFL Pickwatch, and for statistical tracking of prediction systems the unequaled The Prediction Tracker.
Roster and Depth Chart info Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads, weekly probs FiveThirtyEight, Playoffstatus for post season probs, playoff picture AFC; NFC, SOS AFC ; NFC ; injuries CBS Sports, additional in depth stats and graphics Sharp Football Stats, for running simulations NFL Game Sim and predictions WhatIfSports.
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
YTD Lox
Totals (Over/Under) games (4 good lox) excluded
Good Lox 59
Fav 31 H17 R14
Dog 28 H05 R23
Home 22 Road 37
Bad Lox 37
Fav 31 H17 R14
Dog 28 H05 R23
Home 22 Road 37
Bad Lox 37
Fav 20 H13 R07
Dog 17 H09 R08
Home 22 Road 15
Fade Public 20-14 = 59%
With Public 39-23 = 63%
Dog 17 H09 R08
Home 22 Road 15
Fade Public 20-14 = 59%
With Public 39-23 = 63%
Home vs Road vs Fav vs Dog
Wk1
Fav 06 H03 R03
Dog 10 H02 R08
Home 05; Road 11
Wk2
Fav 07 H02 R05
Dog 09 H03 R06
Home 05; Road 11
Wk3
Fav 07 H05 R02
Dog 09 H01 R08
Home 06; Road 10
Wk4
Fav 05 H03 R02
Dog 10 H03 R07
Home 06; Road 09
Wk5
Fav 07 H05 R02
Dog 08 H02 R06
Home 07; Road 08
Wk6
Fav 04 H03 R01
Dog 10 H03 R07
Home 06; Road 08
Wk7
Fav 09 H04 R05
Dog 05 H01 R04
Home 05 Road 09
Wk8
Fav 07 H06 R01
Dog 08 H01 R07
Home 07 Road 08
Wk9
Fav 07 H06 R01
Dog 07 H06 R01
Home 12 Road 02
Wk10
Fav 04 H03 R01
Dog 09 H04 R05
Home 07 Road 06
Wk11
Fav 10 H05 R05
Dog 04 H00 R04
Home 05 Road 09
Wk12
Fav 06 H04 R02
Dog 08 H03 R05
Home 07 Road 07
Wk13
Fav 08 H02 R06
Dog 08 H05 R03
Home 07 Road 09
Wk14
Fav 09 H05 R04
Dog 07 H01 R06
Home 06 Road 10
Wk15
Fav 10 H05 R05
Dog 06 H02 R04
Home 07 Road 09
Wk16
Fav 09 H04 R05
Dog 07 H03 R04
Home 07 Road 09
Wk17
Fav 08 H03 R05
Dog 08 H05 R03
Home 08 Road 08
Wc18
Fav 02 H01 R01
Dog 02 H00 R02
Home 01 Road 03
Dv19
Fav 03 H03 R00
Dog 01 H00 R01
Home 03 Road 01
Ch20
Fav 02 H02 R00
Dog 00 H00 R00
Home 02 Road 00
Sb 21
Fav 01 H01 R00
Dog 00 H00 R00
Home 01 Road 00
YTD
Fav 131 H75 R56
Dog 136 H45 R91
Home 120; Road 147
In any event, over the last three years its been free money? so Hubba, Hubba, Who do you trust? Next year? TBD.
Wk1
Fav 06 H03 R03
Dog 10 H02 R08
Home 05; Road 11
Wk2
Fav 07 H02 R05
Dog 09 H03 R06
Home 05; Road 11
Wk3
Fav 07 H05 R02
Dog 09 H01 R08
Home 06; Road 10
Wk4
Fav 05 H03 R02
Dog 10 H03 R07
Home 06; Road 09
Wk5
Fav 07 H05 R02
Dog 08 H02 R06
Home 07; Road 08
Wk6
Fav 04 H03 R01
Dog 10 H03 R07
Home 06; Road 08
Wk7
Fav 09 H04 R05
Dog 05 H01 R04
Home 05 Road 09
Wk8
Fav 07 H06 R01
Dog 08 H01 R07
Home 07 Road 08
Wk9
Fav 07 H06 R01
Dog 07 H06 R01
Home 12 Road 02
Wk10
Fav 04 H03 R01
Dog 09 H04 R05
Home 07 Road 06
Wk11
Fav 10 H05 R05
Dog 04 H00 R04
Home 05 Road 09
Wk12
Fav 06 H04 R02
Dog 08 H03 R05
Home 07 Road 07
Wk13
Fav 08 H02 R06
Dog 08 H05 R03
Home 07 Road 09
Wk14
Fav 09 H05 R04
Dog 07 H01 R06
Home 06 Road 10
Wk15
Fav 10 H05 R05
Dog 06 H02 R04
Home 07 Road 09
Wk16
Fav 09 H04 R05
Dog 07 H03 R04
Home 07 Road 09
Wk17
Fav 08 H03 R05
Dog 08 H05 R03
Home 08 Road 08
Wc18
Fav 02 H01 R01
Dog 02 H00 R02
Home 01 Road 03
Dv19
Fav 03 H03 R00
Dog 01 H00 R01
Home 03 Road 01
Ch20
Fav 02 H02 R00
Dog 00 H00 R00
Home 02 Road 00
Sb 21
Fav 01 H01 R00
Dog 00 H00 R00
Home 01 Road 00
YTD
Fav 131 H75 R56
Dog 136 H45 R91
Home 120; Road 147
In any event, over the last three years its been free money? so Hubba, Hubba, Who do you trust? Next year? TBD.
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