Super Bowl LIV - Cover 3 Frontline?

The Chiefs are #1 in the league with a total passing epa (expected points added) of 61.9 against defenses playing Cover 3... which the 49ers utilize as their go to 39.6% of the time.  - 2019 NFL Super Bowl LIV Spectacular?

The 49er defensive pressure story... mobile QB's and pass yards over 200 noted.

KD = QB Knockdowns; Pres = Hurry + KD + All Sack Plays; TFL = Tackle for loss; TO = Turnovers

      Hurry - KD - SK - Pres - QBHit - TFL - TO
Wk 01 -  8 - 4 - 3 - 15 - 6 - 4 - 4 (Winston)
Wk 02 -  2 - 2 - 4 -  8  - 7 - 9 - 1 (Dalton - 291 pass yds)
Wk 03 - 10 -3 - 2 - 15 - 5-  4 - 2
Wk 05 -  3 - 3 - 4 - 10 - 8 - 3 - 4
Wk 06 -  6 - 0 - 4 - 10 - 5 - 7 - 1
Wk 07 -  0 - 0 - 3 -   3 - 3 - 7 - 1 (DC Mud Bowl)
Wk 08 -  5 - 2 - 7 - 14 - 9 - 9 - 3
Wk 09 -  4 - 0 - 3 -   7 - 3 - 5 - 0  (Murray - 204 pass yds)
Wk 10 -  8 - 3 - 5 - 17 - 8 - 6 - 4  (Wilson)
Wk 11 - 11 - 1 - 4 -16 -10 - 4 - 2 (Murray)
Wk 12 -  1 - 3 -  5 - 9 - 10 - 5 - 1 (Rodgers)

With the bye in Week 4...
Week 1 - 12 =  44 sacks =  4.8 sacks per game; TO's 23 = 2.09 per game

IR Listing *starters
Nov 01 - LB Kwon Alexander *
Nov 11 - Week 10
Nov 13 - DE Ronald Blair *
Nov 18 - DE Dee Ford *
Nov 25 - DE Damontre Moore
Dec 01 - Week 13
Dec 02 - SS Jaquiski Tartt *
Dec 12 - DT DJ Jones *
Dec 27 - DT Julian Taylor
Jan 10 - DE Kentavius Street

Excepting SS Tartt - the above players formed a rotational front seven.  Fresh legs wore down opposition O lines, lacking that Week 12 - 15 pressure, QB hits and sacks dropped... 

      Hurry - KD - SK - Pres - QBHit - TFL - TO
Wk 13 -  2 - 1 - 1 -  4 - 2 - 2 - 1 (Jackson)
Wk 14 -  2 - 0 - 0 -  2 - 3 - 6 - 1 (Brees - 349 pass yds)
Wk 15 -  4 - 5 - 2 -11 - 8 - 4 - 1 (Ryan - 201 pass yds)
Wk 16 - 10 - 2 - 0 -12 - 3 - 4 - 1 (Goff - 323 pass yds)
Wk 17 - 12 - 7 - 1 -20 - 9 - 2 - 0 (Wilson 223 pass yds)

Week 13 - 17 =  4 sacks =  0.8 sacks per game resulting in an increase in QB pocket time, pass yardage, points yielded, and less turnovers = 0.8 per game

Alexander, Tartt and Ford have returned for the playoffs. 

     Hurry - KD - SK - Pres - QBHit - TFL - TO
Wk 19 - 4 - 3 - 6 - 13 - 9 - 8 - 2
Wk 20 - 3 - 0 - 3 - 6 -  2 - 4 - 3 (Rodgers - 296 pass yds)

2 playoff games = 9 sacks = 4.5 sacks per game; 5 TO's = 2.5 per game

After trailing 27-0 at the half, Rodgers generated most of his passing yards in the second half against a long gain containment defense.

Against slippery QB's like Mahomes, such as Wilson, Jackson and Murray, the 49ers gave up on average 23.8 ppg, 99 passer rating, 56.8 QB rushing yards and a 71 Qbr rating. 

Interesting codicil... during their 8-0 Week 11 - 20 streak the Chief O ran 11 offensive personnel grouping on 296 snaps or 62% of total plays. 

67% were passes with a 53% success rate; 101.8 passer rating; 8.2 YPA; 6.9 air yds per attempt, 11 TD's, 4 ints and 8 sacks.

Week 13 - 20 the 49er D saw 11 offensive personnel grouping (1 RB, 1TE, 3 WR's) on 272 snaps or 63% of total plays.  

67% were passes with a 44% success rate; 92.9 passer rating; 6.5 YPA; 7.2 air yds per attempt, 10 TD's, 4 ints, and 10 sacks.

The 49ers D a league best 40 sacks while rushing four and keeping seven men in coverage on passing downs, achieving a league leading 33.5% pressure rate when ex Chief Dee Ford is on the field.

Against the Chiefs O-line (25 sacks allowed) and a mobile Mahomes, will the continued absence of the other 49er rotational players make a difference?  TBD.

In the last two years, Mahomes has thrown 16 of his 17 picks when pressured by a four man rush.