Super Bowl LIV - 21 Jumpstreet Runtime?

The Chiefs play dime 49% of the time (#1) and sell out the run to defend the pass. A porous #29 run D allowed 4.9 ypc, and 4.6 ypc when employing an eight man box. - 2019 NFL Super Bowl LIV Spectacular?

What do the 2009 Saints, 2011 NY Giants and 2006 Indianapolis Colts have in common?

They are the three worst run defenses to win a Super Bowl.

How did these teams manage to win with a matador run D?

The 09 Saints defense #20 Pts; #25 Yds; #21 Rush Yds; #26 YPC...

defeated a Colts team whose run defense was inferior at #24 in rush yds allowed.


The 11 Giants had the worst defense to ever win a SB... #25 Pts; #27 Yds; #19 Rush Yds; #23 YPC...

defeated a Patriots team whose defense was inferior in multiple categories: #31 in total yds; #32 in 1st downs and #31 in pass yds.

The 06 Colts had the worst run defense to ever win a SB... #23 Pts; #21 Yds; #32 Rush Yds; #32 YPC...

defeated an offensively challenged Bears team (Rex Grossman, what's new?) in the rain.  

Mitigating circumstance: After missing the entire regular season, the Colts defensive lynch pin and leader safety Bob Sanders, returned for all four playoff games. 

At the end of the day, the Saints and Giants beat teams with inferior defenses.  The Colts defensive complexion swung 180 degrees with Sanders playoff return.  

Bottom line, teams that cannot defend the run, generally do not win Super Bowls... unless their opponent has a greater defensive weakness.  This Sunday...

the 2019 Chiefs defense #7 Pts; #17 Yds; #26 Rush Yds; #29 YPC
the 2019 49er defense #8 Pts; #2 Yds; #17 Rush Yds; #23 YPC

The KC run D was #31 in both epa (expected points added) and success rate against zone running plays.  The KC run D has improved of late, since Week 13 allowing 4.3 ypc vs 5.1 ypc in Weeks 1-11.  

Interesting codicil.... Week 11 - 20 during which the Chiefs went 8-0, their D saw 21 personnel grouping (2 RB's, 1TE, 2 WR's) on only 52 snaps or 10% of total plays.  

44% were passes with a 52% success rate, 99.1 passer rating, 6.1 YPA; 7.6 air yds per attempt, 1 TD, 0 Int's and only 1 sack, more important...

56% were runs with a 66% success rate for 6.0 YPC. Despite the advertised improvement, there is a hole to be exploited?  It gets worse...

During that same span the 49ers have run 21 personnel grouping on 187 snaps or 37% of total plays (only exceeded by 11 personnel 41% of the time).

42% were passes with a 57% success rate, 106.3 passer rating, 10.1 YPA, 5.9 air yds per attempt, 1 TD, 1 Int, 5 sacks, more important...

58% were runs with a 60% success rate for 6.1 YPC. (Out of 11, 6.5 YPC)

Will KC's "improved" run D be able to sell out on runs out of 21 personnel to defend the pass and attempt to take away the slot and TE, in an effort to force Jimmy G to pass to his outside receivers? or will Andy Reid be forced to stack the box? TBD.