2019 NFL Super Bowl LIV Spectacular?
We follow up Wildcard Dogged Deliverance and Divisional Divineness with Championship Celebration...
Including last week, since 1992 Championship Game home favorites are now 24-23 ATS and 32-15 SU. Post 1970 merger 46-35 ATS and 58-23 SU. Moving West...
Last season, a Week 3 battle with SF @ KC saw Mahomes throw for 314 yds and two TD's in a 38-27 win. In that game, Garoppolo suffered a season-ending ACL injury, but threw for 251 yds and two TD's before exiting. Different season...
At season open to win the Super Bowl, the Niners were +4000 and the Chiefs around +600. KC dropped as low as +1400 when Patrick Mahomes suffered a knee sprain. The moneyline is now around Even for the Niners and -120 for the Chiefs at most books.
Public sentiment... At FanDuel Sportsbook, KC opened as early look ahead 2.5 point favorites over SF. At the Westgate Superbook, over under total wagers opened at 51.5 with KC pick em, public money has since pushed the number to 55 with KC a -1.5 favorite.
Along those lines... (pun intended) over tickets were outselling under tickets at a 33 to 1 clip with a 99% share of totals wagers. Now back down to 80%, remember an unbalanced book is an unwanted and dangerous thing...
The Chiefs are #1 in the league with a total passing epa (expected points added) of 61.9 against defenses playing Cover 3... which the 49ers utilize as their go to 39.6% of the time. The 49ers pass defense yielded the fewest passing ypg (169.9), the fifth most sacks (48), and fifth best success rate against QB scrambles.
Against slippery QB's like Mahomes, such as Wilson, Jackson and Murray, the 49ers gave up on average 23.8 ppg, 99 passer rating, 56.8 QB rushing yards and a 71 Qbr rating. Excluding the five games against those QB's, the 49ers gave up 16.5 ppg and a 28 Qbr rating.
Deep strike Mahomes is #1 in passes greater than 30 (34) and 40 (20) yds, deep TD's (13), and was #2 in epa on targets 15+ yds downfield... against which the 49ers pass D ranked #1 in completions allowed, #3 in catchable targets allowed, #3 in success rate, #4 in total epa, and a league low 34 pass plays for 20 or more yds.
KC's O-line #4 in protecting their QB, allowing 25 sacks this season. Only 20.9% of 49er plays called for a blitz (29th), 4th lowest in the NFL. The 49ers D a league best 40 sacks while rushing four and keeping seven men in coverage on passing downs, achieving a league leading 33.5% pressure rate when ex Chief Dee Ford is on the field.
SF Pass Dvoa: #8; KC Pass Defense Dvoa: #6... KC's pass D was a deceiving #6, because they play dime 49% of the time (#1) and sell out the run to defend the pass. A porous #29 run D allowed 4.9 ypc, and 4.6 ypc when employing an eight man box. The KC run D has improved of late, since Week 13 allowing 4.3 ypc vs 5.1 ypc in Weeks 1-11.
SF Run Dvoa: #13; KC Run Defense Dvoa: #29... The 49ers faced an 8 man box on 35% of running plays, #1 in the NFL. Despite the stacked box, the 49ers zone based block schemes averaged 154.2 ypg on the ground, #2 in the league. In two playoff games, 69% run plays for 186 yds vs MIN; 82% run plays for 285 yds vs GB; 471 yds total; 290 yds after contact. The KC run D was #31 in both epa and success rate against zone running plays.
Closing notes... In the last two years, Mahomes has thrown 16 of his 17 picks when pressured by a four man rush. In his three years, Mahomes has lost eight starts in which the opposition had to score at least 29 points in 6 of those wins, and 25 or more in 7 of them. The 49ers averaged 30.2 PPG, #2 in the league.
Number One seeds such as SF SU in the Super Bowl since the advent of record based seeding in 1975, 25-25; AFC 9-15, NFC 16-10.
Post 1970 merger SB favs are 33-15 SU and 25-21-2 ATS. Since 2001 SB favs are 8-9 SU and 5-12 ATS. Since 2007 teams opening as SB favs such as KC (last year the Rams opened as favorites) are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS.
Interesting codicil... Last to open as a favorite and cover? The Patriots (-3) against Atlanta in 2017. Including the Minutemen's miraculous comeback to prevail in OT, underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 years.
In that comeback, with 8:31 remaining in the 3rd quarter and a 28-3 lead, Atlanta surrendered 31 unanswered points. The Falcon offensive coordinator in that Super Bowl? SF 49er head coach Kyle Shanahan.
BTW - Short term public amnesia? Last year's 13-3 NE over LAR scoring extravaganza comes to mind. Coming full circle to what we noted earlier about unbalanced books, and public sentiment...
With the Patriot's 2017 OT touchdown, that game is the only SB since 2000 with an over under total of 49 or greater to go over (57) - in such games the under is 5-1. Just when the public thinks it knows everything?
FYI - A complete list of prop bets from Fanduel and the Westgate Superbook
For more interesting factoids see our posts... 2019 Wild Card Ruminations? and 2019 Divisional Divisiveness?
See Steven Ruiz for some really excellent analysis at USA Today, matchup, 49ers, Chiefs.
Last season, a Week 3 battle with SF @ KC saw Mahomes throw for 314 yds and two TD's in a 38-27 win. In that game, Garoppolo suffered a season-ending ACL injury, but threw for 251 yds and two TD's before exiting. Different season...
At season open to win the Super Bowl, the Niners were +4000 and the Chiefs around +600. KC dropped as low as +1400 when Patrick Mahomes suffered a knee sprain. The moneyline is now around Even for the Niners and -120 for the Chiefs at most books.
Along those lines... (pun intended) over tickets were outselling under tickets at a 33 to 1 clip with a 99% share of totals wagers. Now back down to 80%, remember an unbalanced book is an unwanted and dangerous thing...
Odds n Ends... Following a bye week Andy Reid is 23-5 SU, 18-3 regular season, 5-2 post season. KC Pass Dvoa: #2; SF Pass Defense Dvoa: #2...Super Bowl LIV— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) January 26, 2020
at Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, February 2, 2020
3:30 pm pacific - FOX
San Francisco 49ers 54.5
Kansas City Chiefs -1
Ticket Count-
spread: 67% KC
total: 87% Ov
ML: 57% SF
Money Wagered-
spread: 52% KC
total: 99% Ov
ML: 52% SF
The Chiefs are #1 in the league with a total passing epa (expected points added) of 61.9 against defenses playing Cover 3... which the 49ers utilize as their go to 39.6% of the time. The 49ers pass defense yielded the fewest passing ypg (169.9), the fifth most sacks (48), and fifth best success rate against QB scrambles.
Against slippery QB's like Mahomes, such as Wilson, Jackson and Murray, the 49ers gave up on average 23.8 ppg, 99 passer rating, 56.8 QB rushing yards and a 71 Qbr rating. Excluding the five games against those QB's, the 49ers gave up 16.5 ppg and a 28 Qbr rating.
Deep strike Mahomes is #1 in passes greater than 30 (34) and 40 (20) yds, deep TD's (13), and was #2 in epa on targets 15+ yds downfield... against which the 49ers pass D ranked #1 in completions allowed, #3 in catchable targets allowed, #3 in success rate, #4 in total epa, and a league low 34 pass plays for 20 or more yds.
KC's O-line #4 in protecting their QB, allowing 25 sacks this season. Only 20.9% of 49er plays called for a blitz (29th), 4th lowest in the NFL. The 49ers D a league best 40 sacks while rushing four and keeping seven men in coverage on passing downs, achieving a league leading 33.5% pressure rate when ex Chief Dee Ford is on the field.
SF Pass Dvoa: #8; KC Pass Defense Dvoa: #6... KC's pass D was a deceiving #6, because they play dime 49% of the time (#1) and sell out the run to defend the pass. A porous #29 run D allowed 4.9 ypc, and 4.6 ypc when employing an eight man box. The KC run D has improved of late, since Week 13 allowing 4.3 ypc vs 5.1 ypc in Weeks 1-11.
SF Run Dvoa: #13; KC Run Defense Dvoa: #29... The 49ers faced an 8 man box on 35% of running plays, #1 in the NFL. Despite the stacked box, the 49ers zone based block schemes averaged 154.2 ypg on the ground, #2 in the league. In two playoff games, 69% run plays for 186 yds vs MIN; 82% run plays for 285 yds vs GB; 471 yds total; 290 yds after contact. The KC run D was #31 in both epa and success rate against zone running plays.
Number One seeds such as SF SU in the Super Bowl since the advent of record based seeding in 1975, 25-25; AFC 9-15, NFC 16-10.
Post 1970 merger SB favs are 33-15 SU and 25-21-2 ATS. Since 2001 SB favs are 8-9 SU and 5-12 ATS. Since 2007 teams opening as SB favs such as KC (last year the Rams opened as favorites) are 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS.
Interesting codicil... Last to open as a favorite and cover? The Patriots (-3) against Atlanta in 2017. Including the Minutemen's miraculous comeback to prevail in OT, underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the last 13 years.
In that comeback, with 8:31 remaining in the 3rd quarter and a 28-3 lead, Atlanta surrendered 31 unanswered points. The Falcon offensive coordinator in that Super Bowl? SF 49er head coach Kyle Shanahan.
BTW - Short term public amnesia? Last year's 13-3 NE over LAR scoring extravaganza comes to mind. Coming full circle to what we noted earlier about unbalanced books, and public sentiment...
With the Patriot's 2017 OT touchdown, that game is the only SB since 2000 with an over under total of 49 or greater to go over (57) - in such games the under is 5-1. Just when the public thinks it knows everything?
FYI - A complete list of prop bets from Fanduel and the Westgate Superbook
For more interesting factoids see our posts... 2019 Wild Card Ruminations? and 2019 Divisional Divisiveness?
See Steven Ruiz for some really excellent analysis at USA Today, matchup, 49ers, Chiefs.
More to come with our SB LIV prediction, stay tuned, no flippin.
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