2019 NFL Week 4 Picks Against The Spread

Drum roll please, once again, rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that "picking your seat" or "content down loading time" to good use?

Results Wk 3

9/22 1:00 ET NYJ 14 @ 30 NE -16.5
9/22 4:25 ET NO 33 @ 27 SEA +1
9/22 4:25 ET PIT 20 @ 24 SF +1
9/22 8:20 ET LAR -2.5 20 @ 13 CLE

"Hint: A four team - six point teaser at 3 to 1?"
Had one taken the Westgate opening line and teased 6pts this ticket was a winner.

LOCKS
Wk1 3-1 75%
Wk2 3-1 75%
Wk3 2-2 50%
YTD 8-4 66%

Public money ATS:

Wk1   6-10  38%
Wk2   7-9    44%
Wk3  11-5   69%
YTD  24-24  50%

FYI... Down and Out? Five teams are 0-3: Steelers, Broncos, Dolphins, Jets and Bengals. 

Since 1980, only 6 of the 176 teams to start 0-3 have made the playoffs = 96.6% failure rate or 3.4% success rate.  Last years 0-3 Texans were the 6th team in history to succeed.

Up and In? Seven teams are 3-0: Patriots, Bills, Cowboys, Rams, 49ers, Packers and Chiefs. 

Since 1980, 136 of the 180 teams to start 3-0 have made the playoffs = 24.5% failure rate or 75.5% success rate. Last years 3-0 Dolphins were the 44th team in history to fail.

BYE: SF, NYJ

Week 4 LOX: It's a week of rivalry, taking the team with the number...

9/29 1:00 ET CLE +7 @ BAL
9/29 1:00 ET NE @ BUF +8
9/29 4:05 ET SEA @ ARZ +6
9/29 4:25 ET MIN @ CHI -1

As always we reserve the right to shop and take the best line that came available, early, opening or otherwise.

Resources - Use Them Wisely

Spread info courtesy of VegasInsiderOddsSharkCovers, and additional matchup info Betonline.

Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.


Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 17, 2019, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 1-16.  
Weekly "advance" lines from the Westgate can be found here and here, and weekly look ahead's from Fairway Jay.


For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as from our experience they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.

Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference

Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads

Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats

Disclaimer

Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.

Comments