2019 NFL Week 1 Picks Against The Spread
Drum roll please, once again, rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that seat or content down loading time to good use?
2017 Recap
After 17 weeks and 256 NFL games, we celebrated the regular season finishing five (5) games ahead of the nearest expert with a record of 146-103-7; lox at 48-28-2.
After 11 playoff games we finished ATS 151-108-8 with lox at 51-30-2. At the end of the day, one who knows little finished ahead of 51 paid professional experts. Each week and YTD results can be found here, postseason results here.
To ring in the New Year, after 41 NCAA bowl games, we didn't do too bad either: SU 28-13 68%; ATS 26-14-1 66%; Locks 11-4 73%; check it out at the original post.
In 2017, we were the #1 percentage winner on the WEB (cherry picking (LOX) 30% of all games ATS), picking all bowl games, and #1 on the web picking all 267 NFL games ATS.
2018 Recap
After a two herculean come backs in the 2nd half of the season...
Between Week 10 and 15, we vaporized a thirteen (13) game deficit to pass Boston Globe Ben Volin @ 139-117-11; NOLA.com Jim Derry @ 143-115-9; and CBS Jamey Eisenberg @ 145-115-7.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were not back in Kansas, and nine (9) back of someone hidden under the ever shifting MSM "expert" tracking sand (much like moi), Greg Cote at the Miami Herald.
After managing to whittle that deficit down to one (1) game by the Super Bowl, we picked the RAMS and the rest is history. We celebrated a 2nd place finish with a record of 147-118-2, finishing 2 games out of 1st place. Here's the recap, and week by week results.
After 40 NCAA bowl games, a not too shabby 2018: SU 24-16 60%; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 6-6 50%. We have no regrets and don't have a problem with not going back to back, why?
We proved that not only could we get off the porch and run with the big dogs, but finish ahead of every single one of them over a two year span.
Our 2 year total 298-226-10 in picking ALL 534 NFL games against the spread surpasses all "credentialed" experts, touts, pundits, analysts, etc. and its not even remotely close. Our 2017 season retrospective of George Plimpton in Paper Lion seems apropos?
2019
After all this build up, we have a confession to make. Try sifting through weather forecasts, trades, free agents, draft picks, injury reports, coaching staff changes and their impact on rosters.
Then rate the teams in various facets of the game, factor in prior performance, and upcoming tilts, then make the picks and post em. It takes dedication, hard work and time to do all that week in and week out for 26 weeks.
Sorry to say Baby Ducks, since our time is at a premium, we are going the way of Gronk and Andrew Luck this year.
In any event, we will make our playoff twelve pack picks next week, and from time to time over the season and playoffs, check in to make updates.
I wish to thank all the faithful for staying tuned and not flippin. It's been real, it's been fun, keep it tween the ditches, and you never know what can happen next? How bout one for my baby and one for the road?
FYI, that kinescope is from a Johnny Carson hosted closed circuit Rat Pack benefit concert at the Kiel Opera House in St. Louis in 1965. Sammy Davis Jr., backed by Quincy Jones conducting the Count Basie Orchestra, performed the song imitating the styles of...
Fred Astaire, Nat King Cole, Billy Eckstine, Vaughn Monroe, Tony Bennett, Mel Tormé, Frankie Laine, Louis Armstrong, an inebriated Dean Martin, and Jerry Lewis. I really recommend watching the whole 90 minute show.
Shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West... As always, we are sworn to the number, and loyal to none. Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
TNF
GB 10 @ 3 CHI -3
Early
ATL 12 @ 28 MIN -3.5
WAS 27 @ 32 PHI -7.5
BUF +3.5 17 @ 16 NYJ
BAL -4 59 @ 10 MIA LOCK
KC -3.5 40 @ 26 JAX
TEN +5.5 43 @ 10 CLE
LAR 30 @ 27 CAR +3.5
Late
SF +2.5 31 @ 17 TB
DET PK 27 @ 27 ARI LOCK
CIN 20 @ 21 SEA -9
IND 24 @ 30 LAC -3.5 LOCK
NYG +8 17 @ 35 DAL
SNF
PIT +6.5 3 @ 33 NE
MNF
HOU 28 @ 30 NO -6
DEN +3 16 @ 24 OAK LOCK
Fav H6 R2
Dog H1 R7
Home 7; Road 9
Result
Wk1 9-7-0 56% LOCKS 3-1 75%
Resources - Use Them Wisely
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 17, 2019, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 1-16. Weekly "advance" lines from the Westgate can be found here and here, and weekly look ahead's from Fairway Jay.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as from our experience they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
2017 Recap
After 17 weeks and 256 NFL games, we celebrated the regular season finishing five (5) games ahead of the nearest expert with a record of 146-103-7; lox at 48-28-2.
After 11 playoff games we finished ATS 151-108-8 with lox at 51-30-2. At the end of the day, one who knows little finished ahead of 51 paid professional experts. Each week and YTD results can be found here, postseason results here.
To ring in the New Year, after 41 NCAA bowl games, we didn't do too bad either: SU 28-13 68%; ATS 26-14-1 66%; Locks 11-4 73%; check it out at the original post.
In 2017, we were the #1 percentage winner on the WEB (cherry picking (LOX) 30% of all games ATS), picking all bowl games, and #1 on the web picking all 267 NFL games ATS.
After a two herculean come backs in the 2nd half of the season...
Between Week 10 and 15, we vaporized a thirteen (13) game deficit to pass Boston Globe Ben Volin @ 139-117-11; NOLA.com Jim Derry @ 143-115-9; and CBS Jamey Eisenberg @ 145-115-7.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were not back in Kansas, and nine (9) back of someone hidden under the ever shifting MSM "expert" tracking sand (much like moi), Greg Cote at the Miami Herald.
After managing to whittle that deficit down to one (1) game by the Super Bowl, we picked the RAMS and the rest is history. We celebrated a 2nd place finish with a record of 147-118-2, finishing 2 games out of 1st place. Here's the recap, and week by week results.
After 40 NCAA bowl games, a not too shabby 2018: SU 24-16 60%; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 6-6 50%. We have no regrets and don't have a problem with not going back to back, why?
We proved that not only could we get off the porch and run with the big dogs, but finish ahead of every single one of them over a two year span.
Our 2 year total 298-226-10 in picking ALL 534 NFL games against the spread surpasses all "credentialed" experts, touts, pundits, analysts, etc. and its not even remotely close. Our 2017 season retrospective of George Plimpton in Paper Lion seems apropos?
2019
After all this build up, we have a confession to make. Try sifting through weather forecasts, trades, free agents, draft picks, injury reports, coaching staff changes and their impact on rosters.
Then rate the teams in various facets of the game, factor in prior performance, and upcoming tilts, then make the picks and post em. It takes dedication, hard work and time to do all that week in and week out for 26 weeks.
Sorry to say Baby Ducks, since our time is at a premium, we are going the way of Gronk and Andrew Luck this year.
In any event, we will make our playoff twelve pack picks next week, and from time to time over the season and playoffs, check in to make updates.
I wish to thank all the faithful for staying tuned and not flippin. It's been real, it's been fun, keep it tween the ditches, and you never know what can happen next? How bout one for my baby and one for the road?
FYI, that kinescope is from a Johnny Carson hosted closed circuit Rat Pack benefit concert at the Kiel Opera House in St. Louis in 1965. Sammy Davis Jr., backed by Quincy Jones conducting the Count Basie Orchestra, performed the song imitating the styles of...
Fred Astaire, Nat King Cole, Billy Eckstine, Vaughn Monroe, Tony Bennett, Mel Tormé, Frankie Laine, Louis Armstrong, an inebriated Dean Martin, and Jerry Lewis. I really recommend watching the whole 90 minute show.
Shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West... As always, we are sworn to the number, and loyal to none. Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
TNF
GB 10 @ 3 CHI -3
Early
ATL 12 @ 28 MIN -3.5
WAS 27 @ 32 PHI -7.5
BUF +3.5 17 @ 16 NYJ
BAL -4 59 @ 10 MIA LOCK
KC -3.5 40 @ 26 JAX
TEN +5.5 43 @ 10 CLE
LAR 30 @ 27 CAR +3.5
Late
SF +2.5 31 @ 17 TB
DET PK 27 @ 27 ARI LOCK
CIN 20 @ 21 SEA -9
IND 24 @ 30 LAC -3.5 LOCK
NYG +8 17 @ 35 DAL
SNF
PIT +6.5 3 @ 33 NE
MNF
HOU 28 @ 30 NO -6
DEN +3 16 @ 24 OAK LOCK
Fav H6 R2
Dog H1 R7
Home 7; Road 9
Result
Wk1 9-7-0 56% LOCKS 3-1 75%
Resources - Use Them Wisely
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 17, 2019, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 1-16. Weekly "advance" lines from the Westgate can be found here and here, and weekly look ahead's from Fairway Jay.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as from our experience they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
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