NCAA CFP 2018 Football Bowl Predictions
An Exercise in Futility - Year Five
Picking 40 bowls and Champ. Game, SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread).
2018: SU 24-16 60%; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 6-6 50%
2017: SU 28-13 68%; ATS 27-14 66%; Locks 11-4 73%
2016: SU 27-15 64%; ATS 23-19 55%; Locks 6-7 46%
2015: SU 27-14 66%; ATS 19-22 46%; Locks 6-3 67%
2014: SU I did not ; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 7-2 77%
The line will be posted for all games in advance. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all in advance of kickoff.
The line (spread) will be next to our ATS pick; - (minus) favored and we are giving the points; + (plus) underdog and we are getting the points. PK pick em or even.
IF our SU pick differs from our ATS pick, there will be asterisk's next to the team.
When our pre game picks are made, we will underline them. Correct picks will be bolded. On incorrect picks we will remove the underline.
Over Under: total is next to bowl name, below which we will timeline our SU and ATS progress for this year.
Locks: *** triple asterisk next to the over under indicates high confidence in our ATS pick. Since I am picking 41 games, I am taking any push (on the number) to be a win.
Highlights
For detailed highlights of each game, click on The Name Of The Game. Highlight videos courtesy of NCAA, YouTube and Victors Valiant.
Updates - all times EST
For updates, results and future picks, we will make separate and brief future posts linking back to this main post.
Update 1 (12/16 07:30): ATS/SU 5-1 LOX 2-0 Out the gate on the good foot, hope this keeps up.
Update 2 (12/18 14:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 12/26.
Update 3 (12/19 11:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 12/27. Added Bowl Name links to highlight videos. One stop shopping, your welcome.
Update 4, 5 (12/26 11:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 12/31. LOX are 3-1 and four of my dogs have bit me. Switched to CAL +2; MIA -2.5.
Update 6 (12/27 13:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 01/01. Underlined LOX *** ; 1st Responder Bowl cancelled due to lightning, posted links to 2 sims. Law of averages catching up, as we have dropped three straight.
Update 7 (12/28 15:30): At mid point through Texas Bowl, ATS favs 12, dogs 8. We have taken 10 favs, 10 dogs, of which 6 favs and 5 dogs have come in. LOX 3-2. Since Dollar General, we have dropped 6 straight. That's what we get for flopping to CAL and MIA. Getting ugly and better turn around soon.
Update 8 (12/29 07:00): Nailed all three of yesterday's games. Back on the right track? Hopefully this keeps up. FYI, DISNEY (owner of ESPN) has blocked some of the earlier bowl highlight videos on copyright grounds. We have made substitutions where applicable. Please see this post for further details.
Update 9 (12/30 07:00): Through Orange Bowl, favs 15-13. Lox 3-3. Considering public money is 14-14 ATS, even with our two flop mistakes, we aren't doing as poorly as we think coming into the final 12 games.
Update 10 (01/01 09:30) Through Gator Bowl, 18 of 34 blowouts, favs 16-18 , public 18-16, our lox a disappointing 4-5. Need to close well in these last six games.
Update 11 (01/02 07:30) Through Sugar Bowl, 18 of 39 blowouts, favs 17-22, public 18-21, our lox a flip o da coin 5-6. Although our SU and ATS percentage outpaced the public, we should have done better.
Update 12 (01/08 14:30) through Championship Game, indeed a pleasure. 19 of 40 blowouts, favs 17-23, public 18-22, our lox a flip o da coin 6-6. We closed strong and outpaced the public and 98% of the pundits. Next time we'll do better.
We still have a shot to go back to back as #1 picking the NFL against the spread.
A Happy, Healthy, Sane Holiday Season and Prosperous New Year to all.
*Note: All times Eastern
Resources
CFP rankings from NCAA Bowl Site. Click game result for box score. Spread courtesy of VegasInsider. Matchup info from TeamRankings. Stats courtesy of the indispensable CFB Reference, from the makers of Pro Football Reference
Disclaimer
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions.
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
Picking 40 bowls and Champ. Game, SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread).
2018: SU 24-16 60%; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 6-6 50%
2017: SU 28-13 68%; ATS 27-14 66%; Locks 11-4 73%
2016: SU 27-15 64%; ATS 23-19 55%; Locks 6-7 46%
2015: SU 27-14 66%; ATS 19-22 46%; Locks 6-3 67%
2014: SU I did not ; ATS 23-17 58%; Locks 7-2 77%
The line will be posted for all games in advance. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all in advance of kickoff.
The line (spread) will be next to our ATS pick; - (minus) favored and we are giving the points; + (plus) underdog and we are getting the points. PK pick em or even.
IF our SU pick differs from our ATS pick, there will be asterisk's next to the team.
When our pre game picks are made, we will underline them. Correct picks will be bolded. On incorrect picks we will remove the underline.
Over Under: total is next to bowl name, below which we will timeline our SU and ATS progress for this year.
Locks: *** triple asterisk next to the over under indicates high confidence in our ATS pick. Since I am picking 41 games, I am taking any push (on the number) to be a win.
Highlights
For detailed highlights of each game, click on The Name Of The Game. Highlight videos courtesy of NCAA, YouTube and Victors Valiant.
Updates - all times EST
For updates, results and future picks, we will make separate and brief future posts linking back to this main post.
Update 1 (12/16 07:30): ATS/SU 5-1 LOX 2-0 Out the gate on the good foot, hope this keeps up.
Update 2 (12/18 14:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 12/26.
Update 3 (12/19 11:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 12/27. Added Bowl Name links to highlight videos. One stop shopping, your welcome.
Update 4, 5 (12/26 11:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 12/31. LOX are 3-1 and four of my dogs have bit me. Switched to CAL +2; MIA -2.5.
Update 6 (12/27 13:00): Updated results, spreads and picks through 01/01. Underlined LOX *** ; 1st Responder Bowl cancelled due to lightning, posted links to 2 sims. Law of averages catching up, as we have dropped three straight.
Update 7 (12/28 15:30): At mid point through Texas Bowl, ATS favs 12, dogs 8. We have taken 10 favs, 10 dogs, of which 6 favs and 5 dogs have come in. LOX 3-2. Since Dollar General, we have dropped 6 straight. That's what we get for flopping to CAL and MIA. Getting ugly and better turn around soon.
Update 8 (12/29 07:00): Nailed all three of yesterday's games. Back on the right track? Hopefully this keeps up. FYI, DISNEY (owner of ESPN) has blocked some of the earlier bowl highlight videos on copyright grounds. We have made substitutions where applicable. Please see this post for further details.
Update 9 (12/30 07:00): Through Orange Bowl, favs 15-13. Lox 3-3. Considering public money is 14-14 ATS, even with our two flop mistakes, we aren't doing as poorly as we think coming into the final 12 games.
Update 10 (01/01 09:30) Through Gator Bowl, 18 of 34 blowouts, favs 16-18 , public 18-16, our lox a disappointing 4-5. Need to close well in these last six games.
Update 11 (01/02 07:30) Through Sugar Bowl, 18 of 39 blowouts, favs 17-22, public 18-21, our lox a flip o da coin 5-6. Although our SU and ATS percentage outpaced the public, we should have done better.
Update 12 (01/08 14:30) through Championship Game, indeed a pleasure. 19 of 40 blowouts, favs 17-23, public 18-22, our lox a flip o da coin 6-6. We closed strong and outpaced the public and 98% of the pundits. Next time we'll do better.
We still have a shot to go back to back as #1 picking the NFL against the spread.
A Happy, Healthy, Sane Holiday Season and Prosperous New Year to all.
*Note: All times Eastern
| BOWL | DATE | TIME | SITE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebration 46.5 SU (1-0) ATS (1-0) | Dec. 15 | 1200 | Atlanta, Ga. | N Carolina AT 24 (9-2)*** Alcorn St 22 (9-3) +7.5 |
| Cure 60.5 SU (1-1) ATS (1-1) | Dec. 15 | 1330 | Orlando, Fla. | Tulane 41 (6-6) Louisiana 24 (7-6) +4 |
| New Mexico 68 *** SU (2-1) ATS (2-1) | Dec. 15 | 1400 | Albuquerque, N.M. | Utah State 52 (10-2) -7 North Texas 13 (9-3) |
| Las Vegas 54 SU (3-1) ATS (3-1) | Dec. 15 | 1530 | Las Vegas, Nevada | Arizona St 20 (7-5) Fresno St 31 (11-2) -3 |
| Camellia 45.5 SU (4-1) ATS (4-1) | Dec. 15 | 1730 | Montgomery, Ala. | Georgia South 23 (9-3) PK E. Michigan 21 (7-5) |
| New Orleans 49 *** SU (5-1) ATS (5-1) | Dec. 15 | 2100 | New Orleans, La. | Middle Tenn St 13 (8-5) Appalachian St 45 (10-2) -6.5 |
| Boca Raton 41.5 SU (5-2) ATS (5-2) | Dec. 18 | 1900 | Boca Raton, Fla. | Northern Illinois 13 (8-5) +3 UAB 37 (10-3) |
| Frisco 52 SU (6-2) ATS (6-2) | Dec. 19 | 2000 | Frisco, Texas | San Diego State 0 (7-5) Ohio 27 (8-4) -1.5 |
| Gasparilla 51.5 *** SU (6-3) ATS (6-3) | Dec. 20 | 2000 | Tampa, Fla. | Marshall 38 (8-4) South Florida 20 (7-5) +4 |
Bahamas 59
SU (7-3)ATS (7-3) | Dec. 21 | 1230 | Nassau, Bahamas | Florida Intl 35 (8-4) +7 Toledo 32 (7-5) |
Spud 49.5 ***
SU (8-3) ATS (8-3) | Dec. 21 | 1600 | Boise, Idaho | BYU 49 (6-6) -11 W. Michigan 18 (7-5) |
Birmingham 73
SU (9-3) ATS (9-3) | Dec. 22 | 1200 | Birmingham, Ala. | Wake Forest 37 (6-6) +6 Memphis 34 (8-5) |
Armed Force 59
SU (10-3) ATS (10-3) | Dec. 22 | 1530 | Fort Worth, Texas | Houston 14 (9-3) Army 70 (10-2) +3 |
Dollar General 49.5
SU (11-3) ATS (11-3) | Dec. 22 | 1900 | Mobile, Ala. | Troy 42 (9-3) +4 Buffalo 32 (10-3) |
Hawai'i 61
SU (11-4) ATS (11-4) | Dec. 22 | 2230 | Honolulu, Hawai'i | Louisiana Tech 31 (7-5) Hawai'i 14 (8-5) +1 |
1st Respond 50.5
SU (11-4) ATS (11-4) | Dec. 26 | 1330 | Dallas, Texas | Boston College (7-5) Boise State (10-3) +1 |
Quick Lane 56.5
SU (11-5) ATS (11-5) | Dec. 26 | 1715 | Detroit, Mich. | Minnesota 34 (6-6) Georgia Tech 10 (7-5) -3.5 |
Cheeze-It 38.5
SU (11-6) ATS (11-6) | Dec. 26 | 2100 | Phoenix, Ariz. | TCU 10 (6-6) UC California 7 (7-5) +2.5 |
Independ. 53
SU (11-7) ATS (11-7) | Dec. 27 | 1330 | Shreveport, La. | Temple 27 (8-4) -3 Duke 56 (7-5) |
Pinstripe 46.5
SU (11-8) ATS (11-8) | Dec. 27 | 1715 | Bronx, N.Y. | Wisconsin 35 (7-5) U Miami 3 (7-5) -1.5 |
Texas 55.5 ***
SU (11-9) ATS (11-9) | Dec. 27 | 2100 | Houston, Texas | Baylor 45 (6-6) Vanderbilt 38 (6-6) -1 |
Music City 55.5
SU (12-9) ATS (12-9) | Dec. 28 | 1330 | Nashville, Tenn. | Purdue 14 (6-6) Auburn 63 (7-5) -3 |
Camping Wld 67
SU (13-9) ATS (13-9) | Dec. 28 | 1715 | Orlando, Fla. | Syracuse 34 (9-3) +7.5 West Virginia 18 (8-3) |
Alamo 56
SU (14-9) ATS (14-9) | Dec. 28 | 2100 | San Antonio, Texas | Iowa St 26 (8-4) Washington St 28 (10-2) -1 |
Peach 51
SU (14-10) ATS (14-10) | Dec. 29 | 1200 | Atlanta, Ga. | Florida 41(9-3) Michigan 15 (10-2) -6 |
Belk 53.5 ***
SU (14-11) ATS (14-11) | Dec. 29 | 1200 | Charlotte, N.C. | South Carolina 0 (7-5) -3.5 Virginia 28 (7-5) |
Arizona 57.5
SU (15-11) ATS (15-11) | Dec. 29 | 1315 | Tucson, Az. | Nevada 16 (8-4) +2.5 Arkansas St 13 (7-5) |
Cotton 55
SU (16-11) ATS (15-12) | Dec. 29 | 1600 | Arlington, Texas | Clemson 30 (13-0) *** Notre Dame 3 (12-0) +14 |
Orange 77
SU (17-11) ATS (16-12) | Dec. 29 | 2000 | Miami, Fla. | Alabama 45 (13-0) *** Oklahoma 34 (12-1) +15 |
Military 52.5 ***
SU (18-11) ATS (17-12) | Dec. 31 | 1200 | Annapolis, Md. | Virginia Tech 31 (6-6) Cincinnati 35 (10-2) -4 |
Sun 51.5 ***
SU (19-11) ATS (17-13) | Dec. 31 | 1400 | El Paso, Texas | Pitt 13 (7-6) Stanford 14 (8-4) -4 |
Redbox 47.5
SU (20-11) ATS (18-13) | Dec. 31 | 1500 | Santa Clara, Ca. | Oregon 7 (8-4) +1 Michigan State 6 (7-5) |
Liberty 72.5 ***
SU (20-12) ATS (18-14) | Dec. 31 | 1545 | Memphis, Tenn. | Missouri 33 (8-4) -4.5 Oklahoma St 38 (6-6) |
Holiday 45.5 ***
SU (20-13) ATS (18-15) | Dec. 31 | 1900 | San Diego, Ca. | Northwestern 31 (8-5) Utah 20 (9-4) -6.5 |
Gator 56
SU (21-13) ATS (19-15) | Dec. 31 | 1930 | Jacksonville, Fla. | NC State 13 (9-3) Texas A+M 52 (8-4) -3 |
Outback 41 ***
SU (21-14) ATS (19-16) | Jan. 01 | 1200 | Tampa, Fla. | Miss St 22 (8-4) -4 Iowa 27 (8-4) |
Citrus 47
SU (21-15) ATS (19-17) | Jan. 01 | 1300 | Orlando, Fla. | Kentucky 27 (9-3) Penn St 24 (9-3) -4 |
Fiesta 57.5 ***
SU (21-16) ATS (20-17) | Jan. 01 | 1300 | Glendale, Az. | LSU 40 (9-3) UCF 32 (12-0) +10 |
Rose 57.5
SU (22-16) ATS (21-17) | Jan. 01 | 1700 | Pasadena, Calif. | Washington 23 (10-3) Ohio State 28 (12-1) -4 |
Sugar 58
SU (23-16) ATS (22-17) | Jan. 01 | 2045 | New Orleans, La. | Texas 28 (9-4) +14 Georgia 21 (11-2) |
Champ 59.5 ***
SU (24-16) ATS (23-17) | Jan. 07 | 2000 | Santa Clara, Ca. | Clemson 44 (15-0) +9 Alabama 16 (14-1) |
Resources
CFP rankings from NCAA Bowl Site. Click game result for box score. Spread courtesy of VegasInsider. Matchup info from TeamRankings. Stats courtesy of the indispensable CFB Reference, from the makers of Pro Football Reference
Disclaimer
These picks were made without privy of players academic probation, suspension, injury or potential game day weather conditions.
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
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