Market Soapbox 05/16/05
Resistance: DJIA 10400; SP500 1180; Nasdaq 1980; NDX 1465
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Everything else
Weak: energy, oil, semi mfg, gold bugs, basic materials
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 61/67; Nasdaq 49/94; Amex 25/53
A/D Volume: NYSE 1311/495, Nasdaq 990/385, Amex 129/71
Volume: NYSE 1.831B, Nasdaq 1.399B
Upcoming Notable reports:
TUE: Building Permits Mar 2050K, est. 2043K; Housing Starts Mar 2030K, est. 2000K; Core PPI Mar 0.2%; PPI Mar 0.5%; Capacity Utilization Mar 79.6%; Industrial Production Mar 0.3%
WEN: Core CPI Mar 0.2%; CPI Mar 0.3%
THU: Jobless Claims Prior 325K; Leading Indicators Mar -0.3%; Philly Fed Apr 12.0
NY Empire State -11.1 (Apr +15.0, est. +11.0)
European (DAX -0.32%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.92%) were down. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, bonds up, commodities oil & gold down.
10 year note -1 ticks, yield +.006 @ 4.13%. Oil: -.12%; closed @ 48.61. Contra action: $, oil, gold & commodities all down.
Today's Sooey Pig Pig!! award goes to Thomas Weisel for upgrading NetFlix NFLX from peer perform to outperform.
P/E 62 to 1, Mkt Cap 786M, Income 18M. Revenues are up, but, EPS YoY are -55% and plummeting 3 straight Qtrs. (+0.27, +0.07, - 0.17) on a 3% margin.
Stock price down 53% in 12 months, FYI, their only competitor is BLOCKBUSTER & institutional ownership 79%. I guess Thomas Weisel lives up to their last name. Oink, Oink.
As predicted, Freddy Krueger took Friday the 13th off early. A continuance of the late Friday bounce up on lite volume with short covering as the main suspect. 9 of 10 sectors up on lower volume.
Oil has dropped 16% since April 1st, and last week oil -4.5% and the energy sector -5.9%. Exxon/Mobil hit a 3.5 month & Alcoa a 24 month low.
The dollar went to a 7 month record high 1.2581 vs Euro overnight, this is the perfect storm, a stronger dollar which lowers energy costs.
NY Empire State was negative for the 1st time in 2 years and the lowest since April 03, potentially indicating a major slowdown in NY state.
Thursdays Philly Fed and PMI should shed more light on this disturbing data which I believe to be a seasonal anomaly.
A rise in the CPI/PPI would give a nice downward shove to the markets starting sometime Tues or Wen and perhaps lasting through early Fri.
Please see Friday's Market Analysis posting for further insight on the bigger picture. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Everything else
Weak: energy, oil, semi mfg, gold bugs, basic materials
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 61/67; Nasdaq 49/94; Amex 25/53
A/D Volume: NYSE 1311/495, Nasdaq 990/385, Amex 129/71
Volume: NYSE 1.831B, Nasdaq 1.399B
Upcoming Notable reports:
TUE: Building Permits Mar 2050K, est. 2043K; Housing Starts Mar 2030K, est. 2000K; Core PPI Mar 0.2%; PPI Mar 0.5%; Capacity Utilization Mar 79.6%; Industrial Production Mar 0.3%
WEN: Core CPI Mar 0.2%; CPI Mar 0.3%
THU: Jobless Claims Prior 325K; Leading Indicators Mar -0.3%; Philly Fed Apr 12.0
NY Empire State -11.1 (Apr +15.0, est. +11.0)
European (DAX -0.32%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.92%) were down. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, bonds up, commodities oil & gold down.
10 year note -1 ticks, yield +.006 @ 4.13%. Oil: -.12%; closed @ 48.61. Contra action: $, oil, gold & commodities all down.
Today's Sooey Pig Pig!! award goes to Thomas Weisel for upgrading NetFlix NFLX from peer perform to outperform.
P/E 62 to 1, Mkt Cap 786M, Income 18M. Revenues are up, but, EPS YoY are -55% and plummeting 3 straight Qtrs. (+0.27, +0.07, - 0.17) on a 3% margin.
Stock price down 53% in 12 months, FYI, their only competitor is BLOCKBUSTER & institutional ownership 79%. I guess Thomas Weisel lives up to their last name. Oink, Oink.
As predicted, Freddy Krueger took Friday the 13th off early. A continuance of the late Friday bounce up on lite volume with short covering as the main suspect. 9 of 10 sectors up on lower volume.
Oil has dropped 16% since April 1st, and last week oil -4.5% and the energy sector -5.9%. Exxon/Mobil hit a 3.5 month & Alcoa a 24 month low.
The dollar went to a 7 month record high 1.2581 vs Euro overnight, this is the perfect storm, a stronger dollar which lowers energy costs.
NY Empire State was negative for the 1st time in 2 years and the lowest since April 03, potentially indicating a major slowdown in NY state.
Thursdays Philly Fed and PMI should shed more light on this disturbing data which I believe to be a seasonal anomaly.
A rise in the CPI/PPI would give a nice downward shove to the markets starting sometime Tues or Wen and perhaps lasting through early Fri.
Please see Friday's Market Analysis posting for further insight on the bigger picture. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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