Market Soapbox 05/18/05
Resistance: DJIA 10400; SP500 1180; Nasdaq 2010; NDX 1500
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Everything else
Weak: energy, oil services, healthcare
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 114/34; Nasdaq 101/54; Amex 32/36
A/D Volume: NYSE 1847/397, Nasdaq 1541/413, Amex 212/49
Volume: NYSE 2.259B, Nasdaq 1.995B
Upcoming Notable reports:
THU: Jobless Claims Prior 325K; Leading Indicators Mar -0.3%; Philly Fed Apr 12.0
Core CPI Unch (Mar 0.2%, est 0.2%); CPI +0.5% (Mar 0.3%, est. 0.4%). EIA crude oil inventories +4.34M barrels (est +1.0M), gasoline inventories +1.07M barrels (est. +980K).
European (DAX +1.71%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.09%) were up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, gold & oil down, bonds & commodities up.
10 year note +12 ticks @ 4.06%, lowest since Feb. Oil: -0.49% @ 47.02. Contra action: $, oil & gold down.
Today's Sooey Pig Pig!! award goes to the media for acting as proxy of The Fed, and putting a magnificient spin on the CPI and PPI data.
The Spin: "while the PPI data heightened fears of accelerating inflation, an unexpected decline in April industrial production somewhat countered concerns that the economy may be expanding too fast.
Core CPI remained unchanged for the first time in 1 1/2 years, while the total CPI checked in up 0.5%, due to the largest (4.5%) gain in energy prices in roughly two years. An unexpected flat reading on core CPI lessened worries about more aggressive Fed tightening."
Reality: With the exception of the core ex energy CPI, both reports showed a marked rise in inflation or stagflation . The media spin even points out that energy costs had the GREATEST increase in two years.
Yet the media as an agent of the Fed insists that excluding energy costs, inflation is tame. Its like tip toeing around a large elephant sitting in the middle of your front room and claiming it's not really there.
For an addict this is called denial, which is not a river. To get the gullible public to swallow, the easy money addicted Fed and media are engaged in what is called obfuscation and collusion.
The one eyed media led the blind today WITH AUTHORITY, resulting in the best 3 day rally since the November elections. 9 of 10 sectors up on high volume. The oil -3.5% and energy sector selloff continues.
Airlines, Transports, Networking and Cyclicals up big. Steel (+5.5%), Homebuilding (+3.9%), IT Consulting & Services (+3.1%), Diversified Metals & Mining (+3.0%), Building Products (+2.5%), Paper Packaging (+2.3%), Auto & Equipment (+2.2%) and Gold (+2.2%).
Applied Materials and HP both hit the number but warned and gave lowered forward guidance. Everyone was too busy swallowing the plate being served, so no one paid attention.
Yesterday and today's economic reports indicate rising energy costs, inflation, and oil/gasoline inventories. This reveals a pause in industrial production, utilization and a modification in consumer spending.
Costs are going up, production is pausing, consumers are strapped, yet bonds have rallied and equities have jumped. Stupid is as stupid does.
Today the indexes hopped over and are resting on: DJIA 50 & 200DMA; SP500 50DMA; MID 50 & 100 DMA; RUT 50DMA; NDX & NAS 200DMA; SOX 50 & 100DMA
All the indices have broken resistance to the upside and are near 5 week highs. We take it day by day and today's triple digit day had conviction. This market action may confirm that we have seen the worst of this down slide and the market is on the mend.
SPX @ 1185, DJIA @ 10465, NDX @ 1510, QQQQ over 37 has put a lot of call options in big money and we have yet to see the consolidation that usually accompanies options expiration.
This years point swing volatility continues as the DJIA has moved more than 100 points (up or down) in 12 out of the last 26 sessions. The only follow through interest after a triple digit up day since April 13, has occurred to the downside.
Lets see if gravity pulls this down in the next two days or we jump to new heights. The next two days market action is critical for follow through and conviction. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Everything else
Weak: energy, oil services, healthcare
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 114/34; Nasdaq 101/54; Amex 32/36
A/D Volume: NYSE 1847/397, Nasdaq 1541/413, Amex 212/49
Volume: NYSE 2.259B, Nasdaq 1.995B
Upcoming Notable reports:
THU: Jobless Claims Prior 325K; Leading Indicators Mar -0.3%; Philly Fed Apr 12.0
Core CPI Unch (Mar 0.2%, est 0.2%); CPI +0.5% (Mar 0.3%, est. 0.4%). EIA crude oil inventories +4.34M barrels (est +1.0M), gasoline inventories +1.07M barrels (est. +980K).
European (DAX +1.71%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.09%) were up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, gold & oil down, bonds & commodities up.
10 year note +12 ticks @ 4.06%, lowest since Feb. Oil: -0.49% @ 47.02. Contra action: $, oil & gold down.
Today's Sooey Pig Pig!! award goes to the media for acting as proxy of The Fed, and putting a magnificient spin on the CPI and PPI data.
The Spin: "while the PPI data heightened fears of accelerating inflation, an unexpected decline in April industrial production somewhat countered concerns that the economy may be expanding too fast.
Core CPI remained unchanged for the first time in 1 1/2 years, while the total CPI checked in up 0.5%, due to the largest (4.5%) gain in energy prices in roughly two years. An unexpected flat reading on core CPI lessened worries about more aggressive Fed tightening."
Reality: With the exception of the core ex energy CPI, both reports showed a marked rise in inflation or stagflation . The media spin even points out that energy costs had the GREATEST increase in two years.
Yet the media as an agent of the Fed insists that excluding energy costs, inflation is tame. Its like tip toeing around a large elephant sitting in the middle of your front room and claiming it's not really there.
For an addict this is called denial, which is not a river. To get the gullible public to swallow, the easy money addicted Fed and media are engaged in what is called obfuscation and collusion.
The one eyed media led the blind today WITH AUTHORITY, resulting in the best 3 day rally since the November elections. 9 of 10 sectors up on high volume. The oil -3.5% and energy sector selloff continues.
Airlines, Transports, Networking and Cyclicals up big. Steel (+5.5%), Homebuilding (+3.9%), IT Consulting & Services (+3.1%), Diversified Metals & Mining (+3.0%), Building Products (+2.5%), Paper Packaging (+2.3%), Auto & Equipment (+2.2%) and Gold (+2.2%).
Applied Materials and HP both hit the number but warned and gave lowered forward guidance. Everyone was too busy swallowing the plate being served, so no one paid attention.
Yesterday and today's economic reports indicate rising energy costs, inflation, and oil/gasoline inventories. This reveals a pause in industrial production, utilization and a modification in consumer spending.
Costs are going up, production is pausing, consumers are strapped, yet bonds have rallied and equities have jumped. Stupid is as stupid does.
Today the indexes hopped over and are resting on: DJIA 50 & 200DMA; SP500 50DMA; MID 50 & 100 DMA; RUT 50DMA; NDX & NAS 200DMA; SOX 50 & 100DMA
All the indices have broken resistance to the upside and are near 5 week highs. We take it day by day and today's triple digit day had conviction. This market action may confirm that we have seen the worst of this down slide and the market is on the mend.
SPX @ 1185, DJIA @ 10465, NDX @ 1510, QQQQ over 37 has put a lot of call options in big money and we have yet to see the consolidation that usually accompanies options expiration.
This years point swing volatility continues as the DJIA has moved more than 100 points (up or down) in 12 out of the last 26 sessions. The only follow through interest after a triple digit up day since April 13, has occurred to the downside.
Lets see if gravity pulls this down in the next two days or we jump to new heights. The next two days market action is critical for follow through and conviction. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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