Market Soapbox 06/20/05
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1225; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1550
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
European and Asian markets were down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, commodities, oil & gold up, bonds down.
Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to the media once again. Some of the days worthy comments regarding a consolidation day....
"waning momentum in profit growth heading into Q2" Q404 20%, Q105 13%, Q205 6.5% estimated.
"worries that high energy prices may hinder economic growth and diminish discretionary spending"
Did rising oil and interest rates put a squeeze on profits? Who would have thunk it? And they wait till now to announce it, talk about being behind the curve...
"The commodity (oil) has climbed amid concerns related to refining capacity constraints, possible terrorism in Nigeria and a possible strike in Norway"...
And don't forget to blame bad weather for poor retail sales and the locusts for the publics general malaise. Soohey, Pig Pig!!!!
A long overdue consolidation day, mild profit taking on lower volume. Friday's volume was a breakout from the market action of the last 6 weeks.
Todays contra action clearly exposed the sector plays that have been underway the last 6 weeks. Contra action: Declining oil & gold stocks with the underlying commodities rising along with the dollar = BIG RED FLAG.
The European and US indices are at 90 day highs. From 05/25/05 "The line in the sand has either; already been reached or could be at NDX 1590, SP500 1215, DJIA 10725."
Highs so far in June: NDX @ 1569 June 2nd; SP500 @ 1220 June 17th; DJIA @ 10656 June 17th. For the past 6 weeks, we have had rising stocks, bonds, commodities, dollar, gold and oil.
Me thinks I called the numbers right and this party is almost over. Q2 warnings and poor results combined with high oil and higher interest rates should drive this market down.
Oil over $60 intraday extending last weeks +8.4% runup, the dollar bounced back after some losses late last week, Biotech, Natural Gas and Reits performed well today, everything else got beat on like cheap drums.
A larger than expected 0.5% decline in May leading indicators, the 5th consecutive monthly decrease...further deterioration in bonds, the 10 year yield surpassed 4.14% intraday.
The Thais have gone a shopping and credit binge, the Brits budget deficit is at a record high, as are Indian stocks, and Shiller is calling for a mear 25% drop in housing prices. Heh, Heh, Heh, said the wolf as he licked his chops...
Tommorrow may see more mild consolidation, especially in the tech sector. But somehow I expect the RUT, MID and large cap DJIA, SP500 to rebound from todays selloff.
For those of you in the know, whilst on the Continent, I always stay at the Chip. Overheard this weekend in Harry's Bar...
A predicted early July meltdown of several hedge funds due to overexposure in CDO's and MBS may send severe ripples through the markets.
Be on the lookout for several large up days which will acheive a new peak, then its all downhill from there.
Separate confirmation was acheived through a Sillycon Valley source with north of the border origins. Food for thought, eh hoser?
In a related story...Marin Capital LP, a $1.4 billion convertible-bond fund in San Rafael, California, announced plans last week to close, citing a ``lack of suitable investment opportunities.'
Also, the Bailey Coates Cromwell Fund, a London-based hedge fund that had $1.3 billion of assets at its peak in 2004, will shut down after slumping 20 percent this year, becoming at least the second fund in a week to close because of bad performance.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Steinway anyone? Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
European and Asian markets were down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, commodities, oil & gold up, bonds down.
Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to the media once again. Some of the days worthy comments regarding a consolidation day....
"waning momentum in profit growth heading into Q2" Q404 20%, Q105 13%, Q205 6.5% estimated.
"worries that high energy prices may hinder economic growth and diminish discretionary spending"
Did rising oil and interest rates put a squeeze on profits? Who would have thunk it? And they wait till now to announce it, talk about being behind the curve...
"The commodity (oil) has climbed amid concerns related to refining capacity constraints, possible terrorism in Nigeria and a possible strike in Norway"...
And don't forget to blame bad weather for poor retail sales and the locusts for the publics general malaise. Soohey, Pig Pig!!!!
A long overdue consolidation day, mild profit taking on lower volume. Friday's volume was a breakout from the market action of the last 6 weeks.
Todays contra action clearly exposed the sector plays that have been underway the last 6 weeks. Contra action: Declining oil & gold stocks with the underlying commodities rising along with the dollar = BIG RED FLAG.
The European and US indices are at 90 day highs. From 05/25/05 "The line in the sand has either; already been reached or could be at NDX 1590, SP500 1215, DJIA 10725."
Highs so far in June: NDX @ 1569 June 2nd; SP500 @ 1220 June 17th; DJIA @ 10656 June 17th. For the past 6 weeks, we have had rising stocks, bonds, commodities, dollar, gold and oil.
Me thinks I called the numbers right and this party is almost over. Q2 warnings and poor results combined with high oil and higher interest rates should drive this market down.
Oil over $60 intraday extending last weeks +8.4% runup, the dollar bounced back after some losses late last week, Biotech, Natural Gas and Reits performed well today, everything else got beat on like cheap drums.
A larger than expected 0.5% decline in May leading indicators, the 5th consecutive monthly decrease...further deterioration in bonds, the 10 year yield surpassed 4.14% intraday.
The Thais have gone a shopping and credit binge, the Brits budget deficit is at a record high, as are Indian stocks, and Shiller is calling for a mear 25% drop in housing prices. Heh, Heh, Heh, said the wolf as he licked his chops...
Tommorrow may see more mild consolidation, especially in the tech sector. But somehow I expect the RUT, MID and large cap DJIA, SP500 to rebound from todays selloff.
For those of you in the know, whilst on the Continent, I always stay at the Chip. Overheard this weekend in Harry's Bar...
A predicted early July meltdown of several hedge funds due to overexposure in CDO's and MBS may send severe ripples through the markets.
Be on the lookout for several large up days which will acheive a new peak, then its all downhill from there.
Separate confirmation was acheived through a Sillycon Valley source with north of the border origins. Food for thought, eh hoser?
In a related story...Marin Capital LP, a $1.4 billion convertible-bond fund in San Rafael, California, announced plans last week to close, citing a ``lack of suitable investment opportunities.'
Also, the Bailey Coates Cromwell Fund, a London-based hedge fund that had $1.3 billion of assets at its peak in 2004, will shut down after slumping 20 percent this year, becoming at least the second fund in a week to close because of bad performance.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Steinway anyone? Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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