Market Soapbox 06/23/05
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1225; Nasdaq 2100; NDX 1550
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
European and Asian markets were down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, commodities, oil, gold & bonds up.
Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke after a big poking.
A consolidation day with AUTHORITY, profit taking on higher volume. Materials (steel industry meltdown) and Transports are getting pounded.
DJTA is off 8% from its March high. We have previously warned "Watch the Transports, they always go first." Utilities are rising in a rising interest rate environment = A REALLY BIG RED FLAG.
From 05/25/05 "The line in the sand has either; already been reached or could be at NDX 1590, SP500 1215, DJIA 10725."
From 06/23: "Me thinks I called the numbers right and this party is almost over. A predicted early July meltdown of several hedge funds due to overexposure in CDO's and MBS may send severe ripples through the markets."
Transports sent the first message, retailers warned, tech started sliding on June 2nd, then Bonds. Now, oil and metals stocks are selling off. Do you see the pattern here?
We took profits from this runup and liquidated to cash on Tuesday in anticipation of todays events. Over the next several weeks we will be keeping tabs on energy plays, precious metals stocks and Canroy's.
We have probably peaked and its downhill for awhile. A tradable market bottom should occur later this summer or early fall.
Watch for the Hedge Fund meltdown that is about to occur. As Arnold said in True Lies "Get out, theres a hole in da Bridge!!". Get out of the way, as there will be no safe havens in this perfect storm.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Maytag or Unocal perhaps? Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 10400 ; SP500 1180 ; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
European and Asian markets were down. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, commodities, oil, gold & bonds up.
Today's Soohey Pig Pig!! Award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke after a big poking.
A consolidation day with AUTHORITY, profit taking on higher volume. Materials (steel industry meltdown) and Transports are getting pounded.
DJTA is off 8% from its March high. We have previously warned "Watch the Transports, they always go first." Utilities are rising in a rising interest rate environment = A REALLY BIG RED FLAG.
From 05/25/05 "The line in the sand has either; already been reached or could be at NDX 1590, SP500 1215, DJIA 10725."
From 06/23: "Me thinks I called the numbers right and this party is almost over. A predicted early July meltdown of several hedge funds due to overexposure in CDO's and MBS may send severe ripples through the markets."
Transports sent the first message, retailers warned, tech started sliding on June 2nd, then Bonds. Now, oil and metals stocks are selling off. Do you see the pattern here?
We took profits from this runup and liquidated to cash on Tuesday in anticipation of todays events. Over the next several weeks we will be keeping tabs on energy plays, precious metals stocks and Canroy's.
We have probably peaked and its downhill for awhile. A tradable market bottom should occur later this summer or early fall.
Watch for the Hedge Fund meltdown that is about to occur. As Arnold said in True Lies "Get out, theres a hole in da Bridge!!". Get out of the way, as there will be no safe havens in this perfect storm.
We take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Maytag or Unocal perhaps? Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Comments
"Tommorrow may see more mild consolidation, especially in the tech sector. But somehow I expect the RUT, MID and large cap DJIA, SP500 to rebound from todays selloff."
"Be on the lookout for several large up days which will acheive a new peak, then its all downhill from there."
Quite a change in one day -- what event between Monday and Tuesday could have caused such a prescient reversal in thinking? What happened to the "large up days" and the "new peak?"
I might also add that a few days before on June 17 the Naybob was seen at "The Big Picture" agreeing wholeheartedly with Barry R. -- (who sees a strong second half rally coming.)
Sorry -- but the Naybob's credibility with me has taken a big hit here.
"Tommorrow may see more mild consolidation, especially in the tech sector. But somehow I expect the RUT, MID and large cap DJIA, SP500 to rebound from todays selloff."
First, the comment above refers to market action on 6/22. On that day the DJIA went sideways and the internals were ugly. The lack of a rebound on that day gave me pause to sell. Your interpretation is taken out of context.
"Be on the lookout for several large up days which will acheive a new peak, then its all downhill from there."
Second, the above comment was made in reference to a rumoured hedge fund crash which is RUMOURED to occur in early July. You have once again taken the comments out of context.
"I might also add that a few days before on June 17 the Naybob was seen at "The Big Picture" agreeing wholeheartedly with Barry R. -- (who sees a strong second half rally coming.)"
Third, Barry reserved judgement on market direction is his missive. My comments were "Volume is too low to provide impetus or conviction in either direction. The Fed holds the key at the late June meeting...we could drift until late August, it could be a cruel, cruel summer." How this could be construed as in agreement to a second half rebound is beyond comprehension.
"How convenient that the Naybob lets us know after the fact (and after the DOW falls almost 300 points), that he went to "all cash" last Tuesday!"
Fourth, you should try actually reading the missives, rather than giving them the sound byte treatment.
Your MISINTERPRETATION and LACK OF COMPREHENSION has led YOU astray. I am not responsible for your inability to comprehend or interpret.
"Sorry -- but the Naybob's credibility with me has taken a big hit here."
If you are looking to a BLOG to provide you with market prognostication services, you need professional help.
"Just my opinion, I could be wrong." Those words are at the end of most every Market Soapbox. My advice to you is READ THEM, LEARN THEM, LIVE THEM.
And in closing, quite frankly Scarlett, I don't give a damm about what you think.
Your friend Barry was recently going to unequivocally "buy the market on the DOW breakout above 10,610 closing." It happened on 6/20 and 6/23-- and readers were greeted with silence until someone called him on it after Thursday's drop. Then after the near 300 point Thurs/Fri drop he had a similar BS explanation as to why "no new positions were initiated since that 6/17 post."
If the market runs up 400 points on Monday a.m. I'll expect to see a subsequent later post claiming you went 100% invested at the open based upon something else you heard at Harry' Bar -- and you may even have the audacity to point to your "look out for large up days" comment as proof of your unerring market savvy.
Not that this will make your attention deficit disorder and rage syndrome any better, but it might mellow you out.
I for one would be interested in visiting your blog. But that requires you to possess real life experience, knowledge & opinions and a willingness to share them with others.
It is quite evident from your dysfunctional diatribe that you are lacking in all of the above.
Regarding Barry, he is one of the finest bloggers out there and the information he shares has great intrinsic value.
Now listen up kid, get real, grow up and spply yourself. You might make someone proud rather than just running around leaving stains. Class is dismissed.
Short term Frothiness could lead to an Intermediate Top, June 1, 2005 . . .
The Nazz hit 2095 that day; the peak a few weeks later was 2106. I'd say that's a respectable call
As to the Dow 10,610 post, try excerpting the entire comment: The
very next sentence is "I am watching the other major indices -- Nasdaq and
SPX -- for confirmation. Its also worthwhile to keep an eye on the Dow
Transports, given yesterday's Baltic Dry Freight Index.”
That context reveals how disingenuous our little friend is.
Indeed, on the very next trading day, my market commentary (Will Rallying Oil Set a Bear Trap?) noted: “This is why we
believe Traders should increase exposure to equities as the market pulls back
towards support levels of Dow 10,400, Nasdaq 2,000, and SPX 1,181 for a strong
second half rally.” Yes, the least market index representative, at its low, is 1.4% below my support level. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is less than a 1% above (2000-2020) and the SPX at 1189 is half a percent above 1181. That's not too shabby.
Its all about Context.