Peak Oil Redux - Part II
In Part I of our redux we reiterated our contentions that oil prices are being controlled by speculators.
In particular, the hedge funds, institutional investment, brokerage and banking houses and the oil companies themselves. This is a group of attendant geopolitical and ogliarchal interests that have been and are in control of "the game" as it is.
In the remainder of our redux series we will expose the hypothesis of "peak oil" to be just that, at best a speculative theory which cannot be proved empirically.
The Hubbert peak theory, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion.
The concept of passing the peak-point, so that society is on the downward side of the oil supply curve, is also referred to as Peak Oil or "the end of cheap oil".
Many predictions have been made about the potential consequences of passing the peak. These estimates range from warnings of a doomsday scenario to faith that the market economy will allow a relatively smooth transition to other energy sources.
By "following the money" you will see that the fostering of this urban myth, in the near term, only benefits only those who profit from oil; and the existing ogliarchy of world control surrounding them.
By debunking the two main lynch pins upon which the urban myth called "peak oil" is hung; Number One being that current supply is being outstripped by demand (in particular an increase in Chinese demand);
and Number Two being that currently known oil fields or underground reserves are on the verge of being tapped out and are finite in nature; We hope that some will finally realize that "peak oil" is a self serving hobgoblin or urban myth being utilized to scare the public into rationalizing the high price of oil.
From 06/17/05 - Peak Oil? Not!
In market Soapbox 06/15/05 we commented on the media hobgoblin called Peak Oil. This contrivance is nothing more than another "boogey man" which cannot be empirically proven.
Comments from a high ranking Saudi official seem to validate our position that the problem is a contrivance of the oil industry itself.
By restricting refining capacity and manipulating the market via supply chain crises "knee jerks" and "stoking the fires" through speculation in futures contracts by third party "fronts" on their behalf.
From MSNBC:
Saudi Arabia has plenty of oil - more than the world is likely to need - along with an increasing ability to refine crude oil into gasoline and other products before selling it overseas.
A top Saudi official says. “The world is more likely to run out of uses for oil than Saudi Arabia is going to run out of oil,” Adel al-Jubeir, top foreign policy adviser for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah, said Wednesday.
“If we send more oil to the United States and you can’t refine it, it’s not going to become gasoline,” al-Jubeir said.
The United States has not built a refinery since the 1970s, and other markets have similarly outmoded or limited refining capacity.
Instead of focusing on conjecture and speculation that fuels rumours and baseless bogeyman theories, lets focus on logic and what we do know.
Ok, so we are addressing OIL SUPPLY and REFINING CAPACITY. The latter of which is not part of the "peak oil" canard, but does influence the current price of gasoline and other end products of oil.
The former is the main lynch pin that the "peak oil" hypothesis is hung upon. Empirical is in quote marks, because the "peak oil" camp cannot empirically validate that we are at a "peak".
Much like the market price of oil, the hypothesis of "peak oil" is at best speculative...no pun intended.
Taken from one of my favorite bloggers Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
"Peak oil is the point in time when extraction of oil from the earth reaches its highest point and then begins to decline. We won't be able to say with certainty when we have reached peak oil until after the fact."
The hypothesis of "peak oil" is just that, a hypothesis which CANNOT BE PROVEN, until AFTER THE FACT.
Are comments for a Saudi official any more empirical? Hardly. However, at face value the comments straight from the "horse's mouth" tend to put a damper on arguments that the Saudis are "running low".
On the other hand, these comments benefit the Saudi's. The Saudi's and other members of the cartel may never admit to their fields and "known" reserves being depleted.
To do so would escalate the price of oil to such a level that would encourage rapid development of other energy sources and technologies. Thus, accelerating the removal of the cartel members from their positions of geopolitical influence and power.
How far are known oil fields from being completely depleted? And is oil a finite resource? No one really knows or can say exactly. And therein lies the rub, its an very uneducated guess at best, and could be argued ad infinitum.
The best analogy I can throw at the "peak oil" theory and its believers is: just because I tell a very convincing bedtime fairy tale to a child; that there is something invisible and nasty living in the woodshed, or in the closet or under his bed; and he better behave or else.
Does this necessitate the child having to empirically disprove me to nullify my attempt at behaviour modification and control? Or will a logical and rational discussion of the status quo, the possibilities and choices that exist suffice? Reflect upon this.
Coming attractions: new technologies exist which will allow for a continued flow. In addition, other scientific evidence exists which suggests that existing fields are quite possibly self sustaining. Lets move on with this party, no flipping, stay tuned, more to come...
$130 Oil Justified? No Way
Oil Price Redux
OIL: Demand, Production and Speculation
Peak Oil - The Myth, The Legend, The Fraud
Spreading "Peak Oil" Crack
"Peking" Oil, the Saudis and China
Peak Oil? Not!
Peak Oil? Not! Part Deux
Peak Oil? Not! - Update
Peak Oil Redux Part I
Peak Oil Redux - Part II
Peak Oil Redux Part III
Peak Oil Redux Part IV
Peak Oil Redux Part V
Peak Oil Redux Part VI
Peak Oil Redux Part VII
Peak Oil Redux Part VIII
The Blame for $135 a Barrel Oil
Blame it on Markman's Myopia or The Day They Burned Ol' Dixie Down - A "Peak Oil" Commentary
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Series
In particular, the hedge funds, institutional investment, brokerage and banking houses and the oil companies themselves. This is a group of attendant geopolitical and ogliarchal interests that have been and are in control of "the game" as it is.
In the remainder of our redux series we will expose the hypothesis of "peak oil" to be just that, at best a speculative theory which cannot be proved empirically.
The Hubbert peak theory, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion.
The concept of passing the peak-point, so that society is on the downward side of the oil supply curve, is also referred to as Peak Oil or "the end of cheap oil".
Many predictions have been made about the potential consequences of passing the peak. These estimates range from warnings of a doomsday scenario to faith that the market economy will allow a relatively smooth transition to other energy sources.
By "following the money" you will see that the fostering of this urban myth, in the near term, only benefits only those who profit from oil; and the existing ogliarchy of world control surrounding them.
By debunking the two main lynch pins upon which the urban myth called "peak oil" is hung; Number One being that current supply is being outstripped by demand (in particular an increase in Chinese demand);
and Number Two being that currently known oil fields or underground reserves are on the verge of being tapped out and are finite in nature; We hope that some will finally realize that "peak oil" is a self serving hobgoblin or urban myth being utilized to scare the public into rationalizing the high price of oil.
From 06/17/05 - Peak Oil? Not!
In market Soapbox 06/15/05 we commented on the media hobgoblin called Peak Oil. This contrivance is nothing more than another "boogey man" which cannot be empirically proven.
Comments from a high ranking Saudi official seem to validate our position that the problem is a contrivance of the oil industry itself.
By restricting refining capacity and manipulating the market via supply chain crises "knee jerks" and "stoking the fires" through speculation in futures contracts by third party "fronts" on their behalf.
From MSNBC:
Saudi Arabia has plenty of oil - more than the world is likely to need - along with an increasing ability to refine crude oil into gasoline and other products before selling it overseas.
A top Saudi official says. “The world is more likely to run out of uses for oil than Saudi Arabia is going to run out of oil,” Adel al-Jubeir, top foreign policy adviser for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah, said Wednesday.
“If we send more oil to the United States and you can’t refine it, it’s not going to become gasoline,” al-Jubeir said.
The United States has not built a refinery since the 1970s, and other markets have similarly outmoded or limited refining capacity.
Instead of focusing on conjecture and speculation that fuels rumours and baseless bogeyman theories, lets focus on logic and what we do know.
Ok, so we are addressing OIL SUPPLY and REFINING CAPACITY. The latter of which is not part of the "peak oil" canard, but does influence the current price of gasoline and other end products of oil.
The former is the main lynch pin that the "peak oil" hypothesis is hung upon. Empirical is in quote marks, because the "peak oil" camp cannot empirically validate that we are at a "peak".
Much like the market price of oil, the hypothesis of "peak oil" is at best speculative...no pun intended.
Taken from one of my favorite bloggers Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
"Peak oil is the point in time when extraction of oil from the earth reaches its highest point and then begins to decline. We won't be able to say with certainty when we have reached peak oil until after the fact."
The hypothesis of "peak oil" is just that, a hypothesis which CANNOT BE PROVEN, until AFTER THE FACT.
Are comments for a Saudi official any more empirical? Hardly. However, at face value the comments straight from the "horse's mouth" tend to put a damper on arguments that the Saudis are "running low".
On the other hand, these comments benefit the Saudi's. The Saudi's and other members of the cartel may never admit to their fields and "known" reserves being depleted.
To do so would escalate the price of oil to such a level that would encourage rapid development of other energy sources and technologies. Thus, accelerating the removal of the cartel members from their positions of geopolitical influence and power.
How far are known oil fields from being completely depleted? And is oil a finite resource? No one really knows or can say exactly. And therein lies the rub, its an very uneducated guess at best, and could be argued ad infinitum.
The best analogy I can throw at the "peak oil" theory and its believers is: just because I tell a very convincing bedtime fairy tale to a child; that there is something invisible and nasty living in the woodshed, or in the closet or under his bed; and he better behave or else.
Does this necessitate the child having to empirically disprove me to nullify my attempt at behaviour modification and control? Or will a logical and rational discussion of the status quo, the possibilities and choices that exist suffice? Reflect upon this.
Coming attractions: new technologies exist which will allow for a continued flow. In addition, other scientific evidence exists which suggests that existing fields are quite possibly self sustaining. Lets move on with this party, no flipping, stay tuned, more to come...
$130 Oil Justified? No Way
Oil Price Redux
OIL: Demand, Production and Speculation
Peak Oil - The Myth, The Legend, The Fraud
Spreading "Peak Oil" Crack
"Peking" Oil, the Saudis and China
Peak Oil? Not!
Peak Oil? Not! Part Deux
Peak Oil? Not! - Update
Peak Oil Redux Part I
Peak Oil Redux - Part II
Peak Oil Redux Part III
Peak Oil Redux Part IV
Peak Oil Redux Part V
Peak Oil Redux Part VI
Peak Oil Redux Part VII
Peak Oil Redux Part VIII
The Blame for $135 a Barrel Oil
Blame it on Markman's Myopia or The Day They Burned Ol' Dixie Down - A "Peak Oil" Commentary
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Series
Comments