Update - Peak Oil? Not!
Matthew Simmons, author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy," is one of the oil industry's chief proponents of the "Peak Oil Theory."
At the core of his analysis are some 200 technical reports which examine Saudi oil wells and production figures, arguing in nearly every case that the oil field under examination is limited and doomed to become depleted.
Oil industry experts, like Matthew Simmons, hold to their "Peak Production" views even when evidence contradicts their arguments.
One can easily see why Mr. Simmons maintains such a position. Heading his oil-investment bank Simmons & Co. International, Matthew Simmons maintains, "We've run out of good projects."
From Oil & Gas Journal: If governments stick to current policies, world energy needs will be more than 50% higher in 2030 than they are today, warned Paris-based International Energy Agency in its recently released World Energy Outlook 2005 (WEO 2005).
But world energy resources are adequate to meet this sustained growth trend because global oil reserves today exceed the cumulative projected production to 2030, the IEA said.
There are sufficient oil and natural-gas reserves to meet those needs, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, but about $20 trillion in new investments is urgently needed to bring those supplies to the consumer market.
From the Globe & Mail: the IEA says there is ample oil to quench the growing thirst for oil for decades, dismissing the view of peak-oil advocates who contend the world is on the brink of a catastrophic drop in crude production.
Nicola Pochettino, senior energy analyst at the IEA, said the agency does not believe that physical supplies of oil will peak in the next quarter century, but that there is a question as to whether the world's energy producers will invest enough.
"Money can find oil. The problem is for the oil to find the money," said Mr. Pochettino, noting that the IEA study examined 200 major oil fields, including those in Saudi Arabia that the peak-oil believers contend are on the verge of collapse.
"Peak Oil" Simmons contends that the Saudis have only been able to exceed 10 million barrels per day for brief periods of time.
Yet, the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, currently estimates that Saudi Arabia will maintain current production levels of 10.5 to 11.0 million barrels per day and are "easily capable of producing up to 15 million barrels per day in the future and maintaining that level for 50 years."
The EIA also quotes Khalid al-Falih, Aramco's senior vice president of gas operations, as stating that by 2006, Saudi Arabia would have 90 drilling rigs in the kingdom, more than double the number of rigs operating in 2004.
Mr. Simmons typically sees more rapid depletion rates and a higher "water cut" than the Saudis report. Mr. Simmons beliefs aside...
Saudi Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi commented at an international conference in 2004: "Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This estimate is very conservative. Our analysis gives us reason to be very optimistic. We are continuing to discover new resources, and we are using new technologies to extract even more oil from existing reserves."
Even ExxonMobil has issued statements recently suggesting that oil reserves worldwide might reach as high as 6 to 8 trillion barrels. Crude oil prices are seen easing as more production facilities come online over the next decades, to $35 a barrel by 2010. But the IEA raised its long-term projection for 2030 to $39 a barrel, from $29 in its 2004 report.
Recommended reading: Craig Smith and Jerome Corsi wrote "Black Gold Stranglehold: The Myth of Scarcity and the Politics of Oil" to debate the contentions of Matthew Simmons and other "Peak Production" oil analysts.
Smith and Corsi's thinking agrees with that of Cornell astronomer Thomas Gold, who in his 1998 book, "The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels," argued that hydrocarbons are formed naturally.
Once again, we maintain our position that believing in the "peak oil scam" or canard is akin to the ancient myth's that the world was flat; or the earth was the center of the solar system; or the new age astrophysics myth that there was a "Big Bang".
The "peak oil" camp needs to broaden its horizons and try to grasp the infinite possibilities, because these are theories that have been or will be eventually proven false, as they are based in man's myopic, vain and fear mongering nature.
$130 Oil Justified? No Way
Oil Price Redux
OIL: Demand, Production and Speculation
Peak Oil - The Myth, The Legend, The Fraud
Spreading "Peak Oil" Crack
"Peking" Oil, the Saudis and China
Peak Oil? Not!
Peak Oil? Not! Part Deux
Peak Oil? Not! - Update
Peak Oil Redux Part I
Peak Oil Redux - Part II
Peak Oil Redux Part III
Peak Oil Redux Part IV
Peak Oil Redux Part V
Peak Oil Redux Part VI
Peak Oil Redux Part VII
Peak Oil Redux Part VIII
The Blame for $135 a Barrel Oil
Blame it on Markman's Myopia or The Day They Burned Ol' Dixie Down - A "Peak Oil" Commentary
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Series
At the core of his analysis are some 200 technical reports which examine Saudi oil wells and production figures, arguing in nearly every case that the oil field under examination is limited and doomed to become depleted.
Oil industry experts, like Matthew Simmons, hold to their "Peak Production" views even when evidence contradicts their arguments.
One can easily see why Mr. Simmons maintains such a position. Heading his oil-investment bank Simmons & Co. International, Matthew Simmons maintains, "We've run out of good projects."
From Oil & Gas Journal: If governments stick to current policies, world energy needs will be more than 50% higher in 2030 than they are today, warned Paris-based International Energy Agency in its recently released World Energy Outlook 2005 (WEO 2005).
But world energy resources are adequate to meet this sustained growth trend because global oil reserves today exceed the cumulative projected production to 2030, the IEA said.
There are sufficient oil and natural-gas reserves to meet those needs, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, but about $20 trillion in new investments is urgently needed to bring those supplies to the consumer market.
From the Globe & Mail: the IEA says there is ample oil to quench the growing thirst for oil for decades, dismissing the view of peak-oil advocates who contend the world is on the brink of a catastrophic drop in crude production.
Nicola Pochettino, senior energy analyst at the IEA, said the agency does not believe that physical supplies of oil will peak in the next quarter century, but that there is a question as to whether the world's energy producers will invest enough.
"Money can find oil. The problem is for the oil to find the money," said Mr. Pochettino, noting that the IEA study examined 200 major oil fields, including those in Saudi Arabia that the peak-oil believers contend are on the verge of collapse.
"Peak Oil" Simmons contends that the Saudis have only been able to exceed 10 million barrels per day for brief periods of time.
Yet, the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, currently estimates that Saudi Arabia will maintain current production levels of 10.5 to 11.0 million barrels per day and are "easily capable of producing up to 15 million barrels per day in the future and maintaining that level for 50 years."
The EIA also quotes Khalid al-Falih, Aramco's senior vice president of gas operations, as stating that by 2006, Saudi Arabia would have 90 drilling rigs in the kingdom, more than double the number of rigs operating in 2004.
Mr. Simmons typically sees more rapid depletion rates and a higher "water cut" than the Saudis report. Mr. Simmons beliefs aside...
Saudi Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi commented at an international conference in 2004: "Saudi Arabia now has 1.2 trillion barrels of estimated reserve. This estimate is very conservative. Our analysis gives us reason to be very optimistic. We are continuing to discover new resources, and we are using new technologies to extract even more oil from existing reserves."
Even ExxonMobil has issued statements recently suggesting that oil reserves worldwide might reach as high as 6 to 8 trillion barrels. Crude oil prices are seen easing as more production facilities come online over the next decades, to $35 a barrel by 2010. But the IEA raised its long-term projection for 2030 to $39 a barrel, from $29 in its 2004 report.
Recommended reading: Craig Smith and Jerome Corsi wrote "Black Gold Stranglehold: The Myth of Scarcity and the Politics of Oil" to debate the contentions of Matthew Simmons and other "Peak Production" oil analysts.
Smith and Corsi's thinking agrees with that of Cornell astronomer Thomas Gold, who in his 1998 book, "The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels," argued that hydrocarbons are formed naturally.
Once again, we maintain our position that believing in the "peak oil scam" or canard is akin to the ancient myth's that the world was flat; or the earth was the center of the solar system; or the new age astrophysics myth that there was a "Big Bang".
The "peak oil" camp needs to broaden its horizons and try to grasp the infinite possibilities, because these are theories that have been or will be eventually proven false, as they are based in man's myopic, vain and fear mongering nature.
$130 Oil Justified? No Way
Oil Price Redux
OIL: Demand, Production and Speculation
Peak Oil - The Myth, The Legend, The Fraud
Spreading "Peak Oil" Crack
"Peking" Oil, the Saudis and China
Peak Oil? Not!
Peak Oil? Not! Part Deux
Peak Oil? Not! - Update
Peak Oil Redux Part I
Peak Oil Redux - Part II
Peak Oil Redux Part III
Peak Oil Redux Part IV
Peak Oil Redux Part V
Peak Oil Redux Part VI
Peak Oil Redux Part VII
Peak Oil Redux Part VIII
The Blame for $135 a Barrel Oil
Blame it on Markman's Myopia or The Day They Burned Ol' Dixie Down - A "Peak Oil" Commentary
Another Peak Oil Cufuffle Series
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