Market Soapbox 11/25/05

Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1275; Nasdaq 2250; NDX 1700
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500

In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.

In other news, From 11/21 Soapbox: "NYSE has officially classified... Fannie Mae ...as a late filer and could if it wished delist FNMA stock by year‘s end... the NYSE will continue to bend the rules for Fannie, due to a multitude of unpublicized reasons."

Taser stock is down 80 percent from its all-time high of $33.45 at the end of last year. Today, Taser said Nasdaq intends to delist its stock because of a delay in filing its quarterly report, sending its shares down 10 percent. When will the NYSE do somthing about Fannie? Never.

Credit Swap Flats Update: The 2 & 5 year note spread is now ZERO, the 5 & 10 year spread is now 7 basis points. Ouch!!!

Todays, SOOHEY, PIG, PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.

9 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 8 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 7 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 6 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 5 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.

4 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 3 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 2 weeks ago, DJIA +154. Last week, a slowing, DJIA +79. Four weeks of gains totaling DJIA +547.

Mon, DJIA +54 with tepid volume. Tues, DJIA +51. Wend, DJIA +45 with decent internals. Today, closing 3 hours early, DJIA +15 on extremely low holiday volume with so-so internals. This week DJIA +165 , over the last 10 weeks DJIA +226.

DJUA, XAU, NDX & SOX leading the way up, RUT & MID weak, Amex XAX down. CAC up, DAX up, FTSE up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up.

Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU up & gold down, XOI up & crude not trading @ 58.71, CRB commodities & bonds up. Contra trend: none.

Sectors: Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Telecom, Transports, Semi's & Commodity up nicely. Airlines, Biotech, Pharma & Tobacco down.

Swap Flats with Bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.42% & the 30 year @ 4.66. The 2 & 5 year gap @ ZERO basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 24 basis points.

Looking ahead at potential market influences, Nov 28: Existing Home Sales, Nov 29: Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Nov 30: Chain Deflator, GDP, Chicago PMI, Crude Inventories, Fed Beige Book, Dec 1: Truck & Auto Sales, Initial Claims, Personal Income & Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Dec 2: Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment.

Wend. Intraday highs: DJIA 10974, SP500 1270, NDX 1704, NAZ 2269. I suspect before heading up higher, we may be at near term resistence and due for some profit taking and a small consolidation.

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

Comments

Sidney Falco said…
hope you had a good thanksgiving. may your turkey and stuffing run wild like the bush administration's budget deficits.