Market Soapbox 11/02/05
Resistance: DJIA 10500; SP500 1215; Nasdaq 2150; NDX 1600
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Symantec issued downside forward guidance and was pummeled -19%. Meanwhile a tech led rally and a bullish EIA report gave the market some life.
Crude supply +2.73M barrels vs. est +2.5M, gasoline inventories +1.03M vs. est +700K, distillate inventories -159K vs. est -1.0M. More supply, less drawdown, are people driving less?? The EIA report did not stop buying in the energy sector today.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down, lacking conviction. 4 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing through long term resistance levels on higher volume. 3 weeks ago, large swings up & down DJIA -6. 2 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77.
Last week, even larger swings, DJIA +186. Monday: broadbased follow through DJIA +37. Tues, the opposite DJIA -33 on vapid internals. Today, broadbased follow through DJIA +66 on higher volume with improved internals.
DJUA, XAU, XOI, MID, RUT & SOX up BIG TIME. CAC down, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up. This week DJIA +70, over the last 5 weeks DJIA -230.
Dollar down vs. Yen & down vs Euro, XAU & gold up, XOI & oil up, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: none. Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Oil, Transports, Commodity, Cyclical & Semis up BIG TIME. Retailers & Homebuilders up. Healthcare & Pharma down.
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.60%, which marked a seven month high. The 5 & 10 year gap @ 11 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.79, the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap @ 7 basis points.
From Yesterday: "I fear we may be in a holding pattern until Jan 1st, hopes of a year end rally are fading with each day that passes." The SOX bottomed on 10/28 and has turned up, today's tech led rally saw the NAZ +30, Semis & Telecom +3%, Wireless +2.5%.
We feel that the tech rally is a bull trap being set for next quarter. High tech valuations will be hurt severely by FASB rule changes regarding stock options expensing which come into effect for next quarters reporting. Many companies will issue pro forma numbers to obscure the fact that they are grossly overvalued on the books. Whether investors fall for this chicanery, remains to be seen.
All other major indices show an overall upward churn since 10/13. It would seem we are about to penetrate previous resistence on higher volume. By COB Monday Nov 8th the market will define its direction for the remainder of November.
Keep it tween da ditches, (and try to stay off the short end of the broomstick) we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Symantec issued downside forward guidance and was pummeled -19%. Meanwhile a tech led rally and a bullish EIA report gave the market some life.
Crude supply +2.73M barrels vs. est +2.5M, gasoline inventories +1.03M vs. est +700K, distillate inventories -159K vs. est -1.0M. More supply, less drawdown, are people driving less?? The EIA report did not stop buying in the energy sector today.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down, lacking conviction. 4 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing through long term resistance levels on higher volume. 3 weeks ago, large swings up & down DJIA -6. 2 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77.
Last week, even larger swings, DJIA +186. Monday: broadbased follow through DJIA +37. Tues, the opposite DJIA -33 on vapid internals. Today, broadbased follow through DJIA +66 on higher volume with improved internals.
DJUA, XAU, XOI, MID, RUT & SOX up BIG TIME. CAC down, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up. This week DJIA +70, over the last 5 weeks DJIA -230.
Dollar down vs. Yen & down vs Euro, XAU & gold up, XOI & oil up, CRB commodities up & bonds down. Contra trend: none. Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Oil, Transports, Commodity, Cyclical & Semis up BIG TIME. Retailers & Homebuilders up. Healthcare & Pharma down.
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.60%, which marked a seven month high. The 5 & 10 year gap @ 11 basis points. The 30 year @ 4.79, the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points. The 2 and 5 year gap @ 7 basis points.
From Yesterday: "I fear we may be in a holding pattern until Jan 1st, hopes of a year end rally are fading with each day that passes." The SOX bottomed on 10/28 and has turned up, today's tech led rally saw the NAZ +30, Semis & Telecom +3%, Wireless +2.5%.
We feel that the tech rally is a bull trap being set for next quarter. High tech valuations will be hurt severely by FASB rule changes regarding stock options expensing which come into effect for next quarters reporting. Many companies will issue pro forma numbers to obscure the fact that they are grossly overvalued on the books. Whether investors fall for this chicanery, remains to be seen.
All other major indices show an overall upward churn since 10/13. It would seem we are about to penetrate previous resistence on higher volume. By COB Monday Nov 8th the market will define its direction for the remainder of November.
Keep it tween da ditches, (and try to stay off the short end of the broomstick) we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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