Market Soapbox 11/04/05
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1225; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1630
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, some shameless self promotion, from 10/21/05 Market Soapbox: "Now, $1.19 to the Euro, 115 yen to the dollar, by year end $1.15 to the Euro, 119 yen to the dollar." Today the dollar hit a 26 month high at 118 yen and a 6 months high at 1.18 Euro.
Non farm payrolls at +56K vs. est. +100K , increase in hourly earnings +0.5% vs. est. +0.2% , unemployment rate 5.0 vs. est. 5.1%.
The inertia of equities following the underlying commodity is still with us, as a 2% pullback in crude prices led to a selloff in the oil sector XOI -2.7%, 33% of all S&P energy issues suffered at least 3% losses today. Refiners, Oil & Gas Services and Oil & Gas Producers were pounded down.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down, lacking conviction. 4 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing through long term resistance levels on higher volume. 3 weeks ago, large swings up & down DJIA -6. 2 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77.
Last week, even larger swings, DJIA +186. Monday: broadbased follow through DJIA +37. Tues, the opposite DJIA -33 on vapid internals. Wend. broadbased follow through DJIA +66 on higher volume. Thurs, more broadbased follow through DJIA +50 on so-so internals and higher volume.
Today, a drop down from 10-11 EST then a slow grind back up, as a pullback in energy futures precipitated a fall in the energy sector, the vortex held the broader market down. DJIA +8 on vapid internals and lower volume. This week DJIA +128, over the last 5 weeks DJIA -172.
SOX, NDX & NAZ tried to provide leadership on decent internals which continued the tech rally. After hitting an all time high of over 4000 yesterday, DJTA down 1%, DJIA & SP500 flatlined, DJUA, NYA, MID, XMI, XAU & RUT all down. CAC, DAX, FTSE & Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up BIG vs. Euro +1% & Yen +0.8%, XAU & gold down, XOI & crude oil down BIG @ $60.58, CRB commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: none.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Energy, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Transports & Commodity got slapped down BIG. Biotech, High Tech, Healthcare, Retail, Semis & Banking all up nicely.
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.66% & the 30 year @ 4.85. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Today the 10 year yield hit a 17 month high, how much farther can yields go up?? See our post from yesterday Jump? How High??.
And now for some more shameless self promotion... from Market Soapbox 09/24/05 "I believe that the XAU should not go much above 115 and by the end of this year could be under 100, so sorry Gold Member, oh behave!!!" Later we modified this to XAU @100 before the end of October. On 09/30 the XAU hit a high of 115.25 and on 10/20 it hit a low of 101.06. Looks like someone had a smelting accident....
From Yesterday: "We continue churning up since 10/13 on most indices, judging by the SOX, the tech rally is in its fifth day." The NAZ is having its best week in 14 months, and we still suspect that this is a bull trap being set.
From Yesterday: "The market rally is broadbased since 10/28 judging by the participation of Retail, Transports, Industrials & Tech.... we pierced upwards resistance on higher volume, that resistance should become support. Lets see." It appears the resistance we just pierced is trying to act as support, we need a few more up and steady days.
We would love to see a year end rally, and spell out a possible scenario in yesterdays post Jump? How High?? And despite what I think, it seems for the time being, that we cannot get away from crude oils gravitational effect on equities. So we still reserve judgment on this market until COB Tues Nov 8th.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, options unwind around Nov 9th, Nov 10th: Export & Import prices, Treasury budget & Trade balance. Nov 15th: PPI & Retail Sales; Nov 16th: CPI & Net Foreign Purchases; Nov 17th Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Nov 18th: Options Expiration. Depending on how these reports are received, we could see another consolidation from Nov 8th through Nov 18th.
FYI, we have had over 10,000 hits since March of this year, and we thank you for your support. Alot of the big blogs get 10,000 hits in a week or a month, but the Nattering One relishes just the fact that somebody is actually listening. Thanks for coming and drive carefully.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10200 ; SP500 1175; Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1500
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, some shameless self promotion, from 10/21/05 Market Soapbox: "Now, $1.19 to the Euro, 115 yen to the dollar, by year end $1.15 to the Euro, 119 yen to the dollar." Today the dollar hit a 26 month high at 118 yen and a 6 months high at 1.18 Euro.
Non farm payrolls at +56K vs. est. +100K , increase in hourly earnings +0.5% vs. est. +0.2% , unemployment rate 5.0 vs. est. 5.1%.
The inertia of equities following the underlying commodity is still with us, as a 2% pullback in crude prices led to a selloff in the oil sector XOI -2.7%, 33% of all S&P energy issues suffered at least 3% losses today. Refiners, Oil & Gas Services and Oil & Gas Producers were pounded down.
Today's SOOHEY PIG PIG award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -270 on higher volume, plunging below all major DMA's. 5 weeks ago, DJIA +148, up and down, lacking conviction. 4 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing through long term resistance levels on higher volume. 3 weeks ago, large swings up & down DJIA -6. 2 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77.
Last week, even larger swings, DJIA +186. Monday: broadbased follow through DJIA +37. Tues, the opposite DJIA -33 on vapid internals. Wend. broadbased follow through DJIA +66 on higher volume. Thurs, more broadbased follow through DJIA +50 on so-so internals and higher volume.
Today, a drop down from 10-11 EST then a slow grind back up, as a pullback in energy futures precipitated a fall in the energy sector, the vortex held the broader market down. DJIA +8 on vapid internals and lower volume. This week DJIA +128, over the last 5 weeks DJIA -172.
SOX, NDX & NAZ tried to provide leadership on decent internals which continued the tech rally. After hitting an all time high of over 4000 yesterday, DJTA down 1%, DJIA & SP500 flatlined, DJUA, NYA, MID, XMI, XAU & RUT all down. CAC, DAX, FTSE & Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up BIG vs. Euro +1% & Yen +0.8%, XAU & gold down, XOI & crude oil down BIG @ $60.58, CRB commodities & bonds down. Contra trend: none.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Energy, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Transports & Commodity got slapped down BIG. Biotech, High Tech, Healthcare, Retail, Semis & Banking all up nicely.
Bond prices down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.66% & the 30 year @ 4.85. The 2 & 5 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 10 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Today the 10 year yield hit a 17 month high, how much farther can yields go up?? See our post from yesterday Jump? How High??.
And now for some more shameless self promotion... from Market Soapbox 09/24/05 "I believe that the XAU should not go much above 115 and by the end of this year could be under 100, so sorry Gold Member, oh behave!!!" Later we modified this to XAU @100 before the end of October. On 09/30 the XAU hit a high of 115.25 and on 10/20 it hit a low of 101.06. Looks like someone had a smelting accident....
From Yesterday: "We continue churning up since 10/13 on most indices, judging by the SOX, the tech rally is in its fifth day." The NAZ is having its best week in 14 months, and we still suspect that this is a bull trap being set.
From Yesterday: "The market rally is broadbased since 10/28 judging by the participation of Retail, Transports, Industrials & Tech.... we pierced upwards resistance on higher volume, that resistance should become support. Lets see." It appears the resistance we just pierced is trying to act as support, we need a few more up and steady days.
We would love to see a year end rally, and spell out a possible scenario in yesterdays post Jump? How High?? And despite what I think, it seems for the time being, that we cannot get away from crude oils gravitational effect on equities. So we still reserve judgment on this market until COB Tues Nov 8th.
Looking ahead at potential market influences, options unwind around Nov 9th, Nov 10th: Export & Import prices, Treasury budget & Trade balance. Nov 15th: PPI & Retail Sales; Nov 16th: CPI & Net Foreign Purchases; Nov 17th Philly Fed, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Nov 18th: Options Expiration. Depending on how these reports are received, we could see another consolidation from Nov 8th through Nov 18th.
FYI, we have had over 10,000 hits since March of this year, and we thank you for your support. Alot of the big blogs get 10,000 hits in a week or a month, but the Nattering One relishes just the fact that somebody is actually listening. Thanks for coming and drive carefully.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong and Hey! Hey! Lets be careful out there...This is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Comments