Updated: Of A Gassy Nature

Originally posted 05/27/06, updated to reflect current 08/01/2014 pricing.

We have previously gone on record regarding the urban myth known as "peak oil", here, here and here.

Dr. James at Econbrowser notes: A barrel of oil has about six times the energy content of a thousand cubic feet of natural gas.... over the long run, a barrel of oil should sell for something around six times the price of a thousand cubic feet of natural gas.

A comment posted at Econbrowser by one T.R. Elliott indicates that Raymond James and associates--argue that the ratio should be 3-to-1 instead of their earlier report of 5-to-1 because of efficiencies that exist in the use of natural gas.

Liquid Petroleum Gas (read propane, GPL, LPG) is a plentiful and inexpensive energy resource.


If pricing were according to Raymond James at 3 to 1, Crude Oil would be $15-$18 a barrel, and at Dr. James level of 6 to 1 Crude Oil would be $30-$35 a barrel, where it should be.


UPDATE: As of 08/02/14, WTI & Brent Crude oil is averaging $100 per barrel.  Nymex Natural Gas $3.80 gallon.


Fact: In Europe, LPG costs around .65 Euro cents per litre = .83 US cents per litre at current exchange rate circa $1.30 = 1 Euro.


.83 cents per litre x 3.785 litres per US Gallon = $3.14 US per gallon, which is just about what we are now paying at the pump for petrol in the US.


UPDATE: As of 08/01/14 LPG costs .70 Euro cents per litre = 93.8 US cents per litre at current exchange rate $1.34 = 1 Euro.


.94 cents per litre x 3.785 per US Gal = $3.56 US per gallon. Still in line with today's US gasoline price per gallon = unleaded $3.65 per gallon; Diesel = $3.97 per gallon.


Fact: LPG prices have not moved in Europe in the last 2 years. Whilst, petrol has gone through the roof to over $6 a gallon.


UPDATE: In the eight years since 2006, LPG prices have gone up a paltry 0.05 euro cents per litre.  


As of 07/18/14, According to drive alive, unleaded petrol per US gallon is now ranging from a low (Latvia $6.60) to a high (Norway $9.73), for an average of $8.00 per gallon.


Fact: LA MTD runs its buses on propane, natural gas versions of several auto makes and models are available straight from the factory.


Fact: Converting a vehicle to dual system costs around $1100 Euro or $1000-$1500 US. LPG burns 90% cleaner than petrol, thus engines running on LPG have 2-3 times longer lifespan and there are no NOX or emissions issues.


Fact: Given the European price per gallon, converting to a dual petrol/LPG system will pay for itself within the first 30,000 km. or 16,000 miles.


Every kilometer above this level is gravy plus the ability to travel without the constraint of $6 a gallon petrol.


According to the national propane gas association and DOE, propane currently costs around US $1.95 a gallon.


Update: As of 03/17/14, according to the USEIA residential propane is $3.08 per gallon. As of 04/15/14, according to the Alternative Fuels Data Center, propane is $3.31 per gallon.


And realistically, if you mainstream this fuel source and take out the goughing factor, propane should be around its 2004 price which was $1.25 US per gallon.


Question: Why have these long existing alternative fuel sources (natural gas, sugar & corn based ethanol and biodiesel), not been mainstreamed over the last 10 years?


The answer is simple: partially because the cost incentive was previously lacking. But the main reason is that, it is not in the best interests of the remaining seven sisters (the oil ogliopoly) and the merchantilist heads of state they have managed to put in power.

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