Never Mind the Hezbollah, Here's the Bollock's
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
Should amassing Israeli groundtroops storm Lebanon in the next 72 hours, they will probably launch missles at terrorist camps based inside of Syria. This could turn Syria and Iran's current involvement from covert to overt .
Syria has been giving aid & refuge to terrorists while Iran flexe's its muscle by supplying Hezbollah missles and weapons.
Israel as our proxy, would then have the excuse to take out Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant. The ground attack might last 10-14 days, after which Israel would withdraw claiming victory while not whacking the mole.
Their overt target is Hassan Nasrallah; covert is Natanz. Hezbollah would be sent running for its proverbial life, yet would claim victory after the withdrawl of the invaders.
China, Russia and the US need some additional weapons and infrastructure replacement generated revenue and jobs. China is losing valuable manufacturing jobs due to rising costs, civil strife in the farmlands and riots in the big cities are on the rise.
The US has 50% of the "new" economy since 2001 cooling off in the form of the housing sector and nothing to fall back on. Russia (outside of a fistful of petrodollars) still needs more cash to get back to a pre "wall tumbling" state by funding internal infrastructure rebuilding projects.
Our military industrial complex (Boeing, Lockheed, etc.) as well as China and Russia are chomping at the bit to supply weapons for this affair, but not troops. Once again, we see the price of crude staying above $70 and heading for $82 on fear premiums in the near term.
Should things get out of control (i.e. a strike on Iran's LNG or oil fields); Chinese, Russian & American involvement could become overt and WW3 would be under way.
Crude would jump initially to $100-$120, and in the worst case scenario, a thermo nuclear device gets detonated, then all bets are off.
Since this is a managed conflict and still under control, we think the odds of a WW3 break out are around are 15%. 15% because shit can and does happen, despite the best laid plans of mice and men.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Should amassing Israeli groundtroops storm Lebanon in the next 72 hours, they will probably launch missles at terrorist camps based inside of Syria. This could turn Syria and Iran's current involvement from covert to overt .
Syria has been giving aid & refuge to terrorists while Iran flexe's its muscle by supplying Hezbollah missles and weapons.
Israel as our proxy, would then have the excuse to take out Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant. The ground attack might last 10-14 days, after which Israel would withdraw claiming victory while not whacking the mole.
Their overt target is Hassan Nasrallah; covert is Natanz. Hezbollah would be sent running for its proverbial life, yet would claim victory after the withdrawl of the invaders.
China, Russia and the US need some additional weapons and infrastructure replacement generated revenue and jobs. China is losing valuable manufacturing jobs due to rising costs, civil strife in the farmlands and riots in the big cities are on the rise.
The US has 50% of the "new" economy since 2001 cooling off in the form of the housing sector and nothing to fall back on. Russia (outside of a fistful of petrodollars) still needs more cash to get back to a pre "wall tumbling" state by funding internal infrastructure rebuilding projects.
Our military industrial complex (Boeing, Lockheed, etc.) as well as China and Russia are chomping at the bit to supply weapons for this affair, but not troops. Once again, we see the price of crude staying above $70 and heading for $82 on fear premiums in the near term.
Should things get out of control (i.e. a strike on Iran's LNG or oil fields); Chinese, Russian & American involvement could become overt and WW3 would be under way.
Crude would jump initially to $100-$120, and in the worst case scenario, a thermo nuclear device gets detonated, then all bets are off.
Since this is a managed conflict and still under control, we think the odds of a WW3 break out are around are 15%. 15% because shit can and does happen, despite the best laid plans of mice and men.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Comments
If Israel strikes Natanz, Iran will declare war on Israel (certain) and the US (probable). I'm not certain the nukes are the objective of this little exercise, but if they are these consequences are a certainty.
The outgrowth of that depends, but there are some high probability events. Oil, as you stated, jumps to over $100 per barrel. Warzone insurance is high, and would apply to all ships transitting the Straits of Hormuz. Also high probability is that Iraq has to make a decision as to whether it's allied with US, Iran, or Neutral. The latter two both mean Iraq tells the US to leave. The former means Iranian forces can be much more open about attacks on the nation. With a large Shiite population that basically owns the government right now, I don't really expect a US alliance. Bottom line is that Iran declaring war on us is not a 'so-what' point.
If you are right, and Narantz is the target - and worse the objective is achieved - we're facing a few problems that make our current crop much less significant.
Your comments are well taken. What shakes down and how Iran reacts is critical.
Remember the multi billion dollar bill that Congress passed?? It was supposed to help properly equip our troops?
The money was appropriated for the construction of 14 permanent military bases. Most of those bases are in Iraq, a couple in Afghantistan, strategically placed along the OIL PIPELINE that Halliburton has built. (The one that the Taliban told us they would build, then said shove it once they assumed power.)
Some of the bases are already complete, others just about complete. Despite all the polictical rhetoric, the point here is we are not leaving Iraq at any point in our lifetime.
The Nattering One