Market Observations 08/21/06

In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.

FRI: "Options expiration is over and the weak hands have been shaken out. Mon & Tue for profit taking?? or another run up headed for RUT 740?"

The sideways flag waving pattern started 05/24 persists.... despite last weeks euphoria, today's profit taking and defensive plays were a "no confidence" vote. Perhaps some down drift before a month end window dressing lift?

Those nasty "evil doers" North Korea's Kim Jong-IL (his brother Mentally-IL) and Iran's Ayatollah, are at it again.... Iran refused to suspend its uranium enrichment program and test fired missiles on Sunday...

In search of the real "evil doers"... a BP Texas refinery now expects to reach 300K barrels per day, 100K short of forecasts.... Iran and BP helping to spike crude futures.

Speaking of "no confidence" votes..... It seems that the neo con's duplicitous efforts to break up the "axis of evil" is going just swimmingly, don't ya think??

Afghan attack & war in Iraq + diplomacy for Iran & N. Korea?? = Bush administration petro industry and military industrial contract cronies profiting immensely at consumer, tax payor and our future generations expense.

Wallowing in the mire.... in upcoming elections, perhaps the less fanatic and less mentally challenged "Christian" and "Republican" flag wavers will be able to sniff out the maloderous load of manure they have been sold and are getting the rest of us and future generations dragged through.

Of an odious nature .... UMich Consumer Sentiment - "Consumer assessment of buying conditions for homes at the lowest level since the 1990 recession." Also, #1 home improvement chain Home Depot (-1.8%) said profit and sales growth this year would come in at the low end of its projections.

Today, #2 home improvement chain Lowes (-4.3%) on lowered Q2 profit & forward guidance due to "higher energy prices and a slowing U.S. housing market weighing on consumer spending." YTD Home Depot -14.1%; Lowes -14.5%

Circling vultures smell the wafting stench of rotting carrion, that being the final emasculation of the US Automotive manufacturing industry...

Last week, to address slumping sales, Ford Motor announced its largest production cut in 20 years. The 21% cut would close 10 plants and cause 8000 layoffs. Today, despite the realignment plans, Ford Motor downgraded, (-5.5%).

The effects of GM and Fords "realignment" will cascade through the economy for months & years to come as parts suppliers and other automotive related businesses will lose business and jobs, resulting in thousands of additional layoffs in the service sector.

Couple the rust belt automotive castration with: a housing sector pullback, a real estate bubble derivative's financing debacle, a "soft" Chinese landing (shaving -4% off their hyped up GDP numbers)...

Then sprinkle in a hollowed out durable core and no visable transition or fallback industry for the US economy; and we certainly could have the ingredients for a very interesting global financial stew in the next few years.

"Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you (Woo woo woo). What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson? "Joltin' Joe has left and gone away" (Hey hey hey, hey hey hey)...."

Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!

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