Market Soapbox 08/25/06

Resistance: DJIA 11775; SP500 1335; Nasdaq 2380; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10650, SP500 1220, Nasdaq 2000; NDX 1450

YIELD CURVE INVERSION: Bonds UP with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.92%; 10 yr @ 4.78; 5 yr @ 4.75; 2yr @ 4.86; 6 mo @ 5.16.

Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.

2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?

MON, post short covering letdown and defensive plays ended the longest win streak in 5 months, DJIA -36 on low volume with ugly internals.

TUE, up early, then real wavy gravy DJIA -5 on higher but average volume with OK internals.

WEN, 3rd straight down day, a broadbased post short covering letdown. DJIA -42 on average volume with ugly internals.

THU, sideways & choppy, DJIA a weak +7 on low volume with midlin internals.

FRI, more sideways chop on low volume with midlin internals, DJIA -20. This week DJIA -96, since 09/19/05 DJIA +624.

Indexes UP: XAU, DJTA DOWN: SOXX.

Sectors UP: Commodity, Energy, Gold Bugs, Biotech. DOWN: Airlines, Brokers, Healthcare, Banking.

Overseas: FTSE UP, DAX, CAC DOWN, Hang Seng UP & Nikkei DOWN.

Dollar UP vs. Euro 1.2769 & vs. Yen 117.25, XAU +1% & gold UP @ 638.8, XOI & crude UP @ $72.51, CRB commodities index UP @ 336.2. Natural Gas +2.3%

Range bound, indecisive, lacking conviction and scary quiet, this market. Perhaps a small drift up with month end window dressing?

We shall see what the end of the dog days of summer brings. Can't keep my eyes from the circling sky, tongue-tied & twisted just an earthbound misfit....

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