Economic Reports 03/15/07
Summary: NY Empire & Philly Fed giving a preview of the National ISM: the economy is slowing with little evidence of growth in new or unfilled back orders.
Stagflation is mounting as prices increase throughout the supply chain, while consumption slows and profit margins thin.
Once again, the PPI confirming that the real inflation rate is rampant and around 15%.
Initial claims seasonally declining, overall unemployment increasing along with duration.
Meanwhile, massive layoffs in durable economic activities, automotive, manufacturing and housing has now spread to the service sector.
Bear Stearns is the U.S. leader in packaging pools of mortgages into bonds, a process called securitization that raises fast cash for investment banks while creating a product bought by pension funds and others.
Some of those deals include subprime loans. Bear Stearns said investment banking net revenue fell 17 % from Q4 and rose only 3 % from Q1 a year earlier.
Bear Stearns said: "Residential mortgage-related revenues decreased from the prior-year period, reflecting weakness in the U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities market."
NY Empire State Index Mar down to 1.9 vs prior 24.4 Full Report
Inside the number: the lowest level in 2 years as orders, shipments, employment and back orders are down.
The economy is slowing, while inflation raises input prices and lessened descretionary spending cuts margins.
New orders down to 3.1 vs 18.9, shipments down to 18.5 vs 27.1, employment down to 11.4 vs 12.7.
Prices paid up to 30.2 vs 26.8, prices received down to 10.4 vs 12.9, unfilled orders down to -8.14 vs 0.00.
Philadelphia Fed Mar down to +0.2 v prior +0.6 Full Report
Inside the number: An affirmation of most of the data in the NY Empire Index and a preview of the National ISM.
New orders up to 1.9 vs -0.5, shipments up to 6.8 vs 1.7, prices paid up to 21.8 vs 15.8.
Prices received up to 16.3 vs 9.4, unfilled orders shrinking down to -20.9 vs 10.5.
PPI Feb up to +1.3% vs prior -0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI Feb up to +0.4% vs prior +0.2%.
Unprocessed foods +11.2%, fresh fruit +15.7%, fresh vegetables +8.3%, pasta +4.3% the most in 11 years.
Food +1.9%, and running at a... drum roll please .... 18.1% annualized pace over the last 3 months.
Blame it on "peak oil" and the corn ethanol initiative... corn prices +16.2%, soybean prices +13.6%. Corn prices +97% YoY, with soybeans +27%.
Alright then, eat less, go on the Atkins Diet... just smoke alot and drink lots of bourbon...
Wrong! cigarettes +4.6%, the most in 6 years. That's the Chet Atkins Diet folks....
Less discretionary spending shows in car prices -1.2% and computer prices -1.6%.
And inflation is rampant throughout the supply chain: Crude goods prices +8.9%, intermediate goods prices +1.1%.
Initial Claims 03/10 -12K to 318K vs prior 330K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -10.25K to 329.25K. Continuing claims +48K to 2.58 M, 4 week MA +5.5K to 2.56 M.
31% of the 6.9 M official unemployed people have been out of work longer than 15 weeks, while 18% or 1.2 M have been out of work longer than 27 weeks.
Bye, Bye, Miss American Pie....
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
AL +1,190 primary metals, fabricated metals, wood products, service industries.
OR +1,368 No comment.
TX +1,388 trade, service, manufacturing industries.
IL +1,756 trade and manufacturing industries.
KS +1,827 transportation equipment industry.
KY +3,404 automobile and manufacturing industries.
MI +3,590 automobile industry.
CA +6,396 construction and service industries.
NY +10,768 transportation and service industries.
Stagflation is mounting as prices increase throughout the supply chain, while consumption slows and profit margins thin.
Once again, the PPI confirming that the real inflation rate is rampant and around 15%.
Initial claims seasonally declining, overall unemployment increasing along with duration.
Meanwhile, massive layoffs in durable economic activities, automotive, manufacturing and housing has now spread to the service sector.
Bear Stearns is the U.S. leader in packaging pools of mortgages into bonds, a process called securitization that raises fast cash for investment banks while creating a product bought by pension funds and others.
Some of those deals include subprime loans. Bear Stearns said investment banking net revenue fell 17 % from Q4 and rose only 3 % from Q1 a year earlier.
Bear Stearns said: "Residential mortgage-related revenues decreased from the prior-year period, reflecting weakness in the U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities market."
NY Empire State Index Mar down to 1.9 vs prior 24.4 Full Report
Inside the number: the lowest level in 2 years as orders, shipments, employment and back orders are down.
The economy is slowing, while inflation raises input prices and lessened descretionary spending cuts margins.
New orders down to 3.1 vs 18.9, shipments down to 18.5 vs 27.1, employment down to 11.4 vs 12.7.
Prices paid up to 30.2 vs 26.8, prices received down to 10.4 vs 12.9, unfilled orders down to -8.14 vs 0.00.
Philadelphia Fed Mar down to +0.2 v prior +0.6 Full Report
Inside the number: An affirmation of most of the data in the NY Empire Index and a preview of the National ISM.
New orders up to 1.9 vs -0.5, shipments up to 6.8 vs 1.7, prices paid up to 21.8 vs 15.8.
Prices received up to 16.3 vs 9.4, unfilled orders shrinking down to -20.9 vs 10.5.
PPI Feb up to +1.3% vs prior -0.6% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI Feb up to +0.4% vs prior +0.2%.
Unprocessed foods +11.2%, fresh fruit +15.7%, fresh vegetables +8.3%, pasta +4.3% the most in 11 years.
Food +1.9%, and running at a... drum roll please .... 18.1% annualized pace over the last 3 months.
Blame it on "peak oil" and the corn ethanol initiative... corn prices +16.2%, soybean prices +13.6%. Corn prices +97% YoY, with soybeans +27%.
Alright then, eat less, go on the Atkins Diet... just smoke alot and drink lots of bourbon...
Wrong! cigarettes +4.6%, the most in 6 years. That's the Chet Atkins Diet folks....
Less discretionary spending shows in car prices -1.2% and computer prices -1.6%.
And inflation is rampant throughout the supply chain: Crude goods prices +8.9%, intermediate goods prices +1.1%.
Initial Claims 03/10 -12K to 318K vs prior 330K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA -10.25K to 329.25K. Continuing claims +48K to 2.58 M, 4 week MA +5.5K to 2.56 M.
31% of the 6.9 M official unemployed people have been out of work longer than 15 weeks, while 18% or 1.2 M have been out of work longer than 27 weeks.
Bye, Bye, Miss American Pie....
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
AL +1,190 primary metals, fabricated metals, wood products, service industries.
OR +1,368 No comment.
TX +1,388 trade, service, manufacturing industries.
IL +1,756 trade and manufacturing industries.
KS +1,827 transportation equipment industry.
KY +3,404 automobile and manufacturing industries.
MI +3,590 automobile industry.
CA +6,396 construction and service industries.
NY +10,768 transportation and service industries.
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