Market Soapbox Week Ending 03/16/07
MON, broadbased up day, DJIA +42 on lower volume with decent internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds up 10 yr yield -4 bps 4.55, $ down vs 1.319E & vs 117.64Y, WTI crude down 1.8% $58.94, gold up $651.50.
TUE, triple digit plunge, DJIA -243 on avergae volume with fugly internals. All DOWN BIG. Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -6 bps 4.49, $ down BIG vs 116.5y & down vs 1.3198E, WTI crude down 1.4% $58.05, gold down $645.90.
WEN, a whipsaw day, DJIA +57 on higher volume with decent internals. All UP cept DJTA, AMEX. Bonds down 10yr yield +4 bps 4.53, $ up vs 117.04y & down vs 1.3224E, WTI crude up $58.27, gold down $645.40
THU, sideways, DJIA +25 on lower volume and nice internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds flat 10 yr yield 4.53, $ up vs 117.625y & down vs 1.3234E, gold up $646.70, WTI crude down -1.1% $57.50.
FRI, DJIA -49 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.55, $ down vs 116.79y & vs 1.3312E, gold up $652.60, WTI crude down $57.07
This week, DJIA -168, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1480. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3312 & vs. Yen 116.79, XAU up 133.32 & gold up $652.60, XOI down 1135.23 & WTI crude down $57.07, CRB commodities index down 304.44
YIELD CURVE INVERTED: This week bonds up with the 10 yr yield falling 4bps. 30 yr @ 4.70%; 10 yr @ 4.55; 5 yr @ 4.47; 2yr @ 4.59; 6 mo @ 5.12.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - 03/01
Resistance: DJIA 12215; SP500 1397; NAZ 2390; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 12000; SP500 1375; NAZ 2340; NDX 1710
Dollar index falling from 83.75 to 83.23 as the yen rallied on carry trade unwind, crude falling from $60 to $57.
Gold rising from $650 to $652, as bonds rallied lowering the 10 yr 4 bps in 2 days to 4.55, Volatility whipsawing from 16 to 21 then falling back to 16.
Fremont General, which is exiting the business of offering mortgages to people with weak credit, said Credit Suisse boosted its credit line to $1 billion.
Accredited Home Lenders announced it will sell $2.7 billion in loans at a substantial discount to buy it time while it looks for more financing.
Yesterday, "perhaps a rise to the 1400 - 1407 level carrying through to Monday, 1417 & 1427 seem unlikely given Mon Housing Index, Tues Housing Starts, Wen FOMC statement, Fri Existing Home Sales."
Today, SP500 hit 1391 then slid back to 1387. This week the market gave back last weeks recovery seeming fragile, volatile and tenative.
The marble keeps rattling between 1400 and 1385 with a new low established at 1363 and seems to want to fall down another step.
Rate surprises, more subprime woes or a BK announcement could pull the rug out from under this "oversold" bounce and start an avalanche.
Happy St. Paddy's Day to all!!! ERIN GO BRAUGHLESS!!
TUE, triple digit plunge, DJIA -243 on avergae volume with fugly internals. All DOWN BIG. Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -6 bps 4.49, $ down BIG vs 116.5y & down vs 1.3198E, WTI crude down 1.4% $58.05, gold down $645.90.
WEN, a whipsaw day, DJIA +57 on higher volume with decent internals. All UP cept DJTA, AMEX. Bonds down 10yr yield +4 bps 4.53, $ up vs 117.04y & down vs 1.3224E, WTI crude up $58.27, gold down $645.40
THU, sideways, DJIA +25 on lower volume and nice internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds flat 10 yr yield 4.53, $ up vs 117.625y & down vs 1.3234E, gold up $646.70, WTI crude down -1.1% $57.50.
FRI, DJIA -49 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.55, $ down vs 116.79y & vs 1.3312E, gold up $652.60, WTI crude down $57.07
This week, DJIA -168, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1480. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3312 & vs. Yen 116.79, XAU up 133.32 & gold up $652.60, XOI down 1135.23 & WTI crude down $57.07, CRB commodities index down 304.44
YIELD CURVE INVERTED: This week bonds up with the 10 yr yield falling 4bps. 30 yr @ 4.70%; 10 yr @ 4.55; 5 yr @ 4.47; 2yr @ 4.59; 6 mo @ 5.12.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 03/07; 03/20 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26. 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 03/07 & 03/21 - 3/29; 6mo & 2yr above 30yr 06/13 - 07/20.
2yr above 10yr 08/03 - ?; 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ? 2 yr above 30yr 11/03 - 03/01
Resistance: DJIA 12215; SP500 1397; NAZ 2390; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 12000; SP500 1375; NAZ 2340; NDX 1710
Dollar index falling from 83.75 to 83.23 as the yen rallied on carry trade unwind, crude falling from $60 to $57.
Gold rising from $650 to $652, as bonds rallied lowering the 10 yr 4 bps in 2 days to 4.55, Volatility whipsawing from 16 to 21 then falling back to 16.
Fremont General, which is exiting the business of offering mortgages to people with weak credit, said Credit Suisse boosted its credit line to $1 billion.
Accredited Home Lenders announced it will sell $2.7 billion in loans at a substantial discount to buy it time while it looks for more financing.
Yesterday, "perhaps a rise to the 1400 - 1407 level carrying through to Monday, 1417 & 1427 seem unlikely given Mon Housing Index, Tues Housing Starts, Wen FOMC statement, Fri Existing Home Sales."
Today, SP500 hit 1391 then slid back to 1387. This week the market gave back last weeks recovery seeming fragile, volatile and tenative.
The marble keeps rattling between 1400 and 1385 with a new low established at 1363 and seems to want to fall down another step.
Rate surprises, more subprime woes or a BK announcement could pull the rug out from under this "oversold" bounce and start an avalanche.
Happy St. Paddy's Day to all!!! ERIN GO BRAUGHLESS!!
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