Market Soapbox Week Ending 03/30/07
MON, down & up, DJIA -12 on below average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJTA, MID, RUT, SOXX. Bonds up 10 yr yield -1 bps 4.60, $ down vs 1.333E & up vs 118.141Y, WTI crude up 1% $62.91, gold up 1% $663.90.
TUE, broadbased down day, DJIA -72 on low volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XOI. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.61, $ down vs 117.89y & vs 1.3349E, WTI crude up $62.93, gold down $662.5.
WEN, triple digit followthrough, DJIA -102 on below average volume with fugly internals. All DOWN. Bonds down 10yr yield +1 bps 4.62, $ down BIG vs 116.99y & up vs 1.3313E, WTI crude up 1.8% $64.08, gold up $672.90
THU, manic with a late rally, DJIA +48 on average volume and midlin internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.64, $ up BIG vs 117.96y & down vs 1.3334E, gold down $667.6, WTI crude up BIG +3% $66.03.
FRI, DJIA +6 on average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept XOI, XAU, DJUA, OEX, SP500. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.65, $ down vs 117.835y & vs 1.3354E, gold up $669, WTI crude down $65.87
This week, DJIA -132, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1718. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3354 & vs. Yen 117.835, XAU down 137.01 & gold up $669, XOI up 1216.31 & WTI crude up $65.87, CRB commodities index up 316.88
YIELD CURVE CORRECTING: This week bonds down with the 10 yr yield rising 4bps. 30 yr @ 4.84%; 10 yr @ 4.65; 5 yr @ 4.54; 2yr @ 4.58; 6 mo @ 5.06.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26; 08/03 - 02/22; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 3/29; 11/03- 03/01. 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 12460; SP500 1430; NAZ 2440; NDX 1780
Support: DJIA 12280; SP500 1408; NAZ 2405; NDX 1760
Dollar index falling from 83.28 to 82.93 with the Yen & Euro rising, crude jumping from $62 to $65.87. Gold rising from $657 to $669, 30 year bond testing 111, Volatility whipsawing back up from 12.95 to 16.05.
Yesterday, "month end window dressing overcomes another decline in construction spending and keeps the SP500 in the green for Q1?".
Today month and quarter ending window dressing dropping the DJIA into quarterly red for the 1st time since 2005. While the Dow declined 0.87%, the NAZ and SP500 managed to gains of 0.26% and 0.18%,
A "bullish" crop report (more planting of corn at the cost of other grains) tanked grain commodities... Safe plays, energy and utilities also got punked.
For Q1 best performing: tires & rubber (+48.59%); construction materials (+29.14%); oil & gas refining (+24.22%); steel (+23.53%); and diversified metals & mining (+16.64%).
For Q1 worst performing: homebuilders (-20.04%); motorcycle manufacturing (-16.81%); distillers & vintners (-15.45%); photo products (-12.45%); and thrifts & mortgage (-11.04%).
SP500 rising to 1429, then falling 21 points to 25 DMA support at 1408 and bouncing to 1420. DJIA was down 105 early, the market is whipsawing and being compressed into a tight trading range.
Next week perhaps a breakout or breakdown, look to yesterdays comments for our innermost thoughts on how things might play out.
We suspect Q2 fund inflows might boost till Friday the 6th, which could be a very big day.
TUE, broadbased down day, DJIA -72 on low volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XOI. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.61, $ down vs 117.89y & vs 1.3349E, WTI crude up $62.93, gold down $662.5.
WEN, triple digit followthrough, DJIA -102 on below average volume with fugly internals. All DOWN. Bonds down 10yr yield +1 bps 4.62, $ down BIG vs 116.99y & up vs 1.3313E, WTI crude up 1.8% $64.08, gold up $672.90
THU, manic with a late rally, DJIA +48 on average volume and midlin internals. All UP cept SOXX, XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +2 bps 4.64, $ up BIG vs 117.96y & down vs 1.3334E, gold down $667.6, WTI crude up BIG +3% $66.03.
FRI, DJIA +6 on average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept XOI, XAU, DJUA, OEX, SP500. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.65, $ down vs 117.835y & vs 1.3354E, gold up $669, WTI crude down $65.87
This week, DJIA -132, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1718. Dollar down vs. Euro 1.3354 & vs. Yen 117.835, XAU down 137.01 & gold up $669, XOI up 1216.31 & WTI crude up $65.87, CRB commodities index up 316.88
YIELD CURVE CORRECTING: This week bonds down with the 10 yr yield rising 4bps. 30 yr @ 4.84%; 10 yr @ 4.65; 5 yr @ 4.54; 2yr @ 4.58; 6 mo @ 5.06.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27 - 3/29; 06/08 - 07/26; 08/03 - 02/22; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09 - 3/29; 11/03- 03/01. 6mo above 10yr 06/02 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 12460; SP500 1430; NAZ 2440; NDX 1780
Support: DJIA 12280; SP500 1408; NAZ 2405; NDX 1760
Dollar index falling from 83.28 to 82.93 with the Yen & Euro rising, crude jumping from $62 to $65.87. Gold rising from $657 to $669, 30 year bond testing 111, Volatility whipsawing back up from 12.95 to 16.05.
Yesterday, "month end window dressing overcomes another decline in construction spending and keeps the SP500 in the green for Q1?".
Today month and quarter ending window dressing dropping the DJIA into quarterly red for the 1st time since 2005. While the Dow declined 0.87%, the NAZ and SP500 managed to gains of 0.26% and 0.18%,
A "bullish" crop report (more planting of corn at the cost of other grains) tanked grain commodities... Safe plays, energy and utilities also got punked.
For Q1 best performing: tires & rubber (+48.59%); construction materials (+29.14%); oil & gas refining (+24.22%); steel (+23.53%); and diversified metals & mining (+16.64%).
For Q1 worst performing: homebuilders (-20.04%); motorcycle manufacturing (-16.81%); distillers & vintners (-15.45%); photo products (-12.45%); and thrifts & mortgage (-11.04%).
SP500 rising to 1429, then falling 21 points to 25 DMA support at 1408 and bouncing to 1420. DJIA was down 105 early, the market is whipsawing and being compressed into a tight trading range.
Next week perhaps a breakout or breakdown, look to yesterdays comments for our innermost thoughts on how things might play out.
We suspect Q2 fund inflows might boost till Friday the 6th, which could be a very big day.
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