Economic Reports 04/03/07
Pending Home Sales +0.7% vs prior -4.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Sales are down 8.5% in the past year. South +4.5%, Midwest +2.9%, Northeast -1.3%, West -6.0%.
The hook in mouth media, whom prior to this months report, all but ignored this quasi irrelevant statistic, bellowed that the data "eased the worst of fears of the housing crisis spreading to the broader economy".
Lets get something straight, pending sales data covers 2001 to present. 2001 is the index base of 100, followed by 4 straight record sales years 02,03,04,05. The index has plunged since 05....
As pending sales are NOT closed deals, this index barely qualifies as a "quasi" barometer of "traffic or activity" levels in the current existing sales market.
NAR chief economist David Lereah: "If it wasn't for the unusually bad weather in February, we'd be seeing a better performance in pending home sales... (and the Spring lending locusts might effect performance as well.)
"Although home sales eased in February, housing activity appears to be firming with a modest uptrend in the months ahead... " (must be nice to have that "crystal" ball for the months "ahead")....
"the data suggests an underlying stabilization is taking place in the housing market, but it will take another month or two to clarify.”... (wait a minute, did the crystal ball get cloudly all of a sudden??)
“We also may be seeing some fallout from a decline in subprime lending.... Problems in the subprime mortgage market will become more apparent over time, and they will modestly depress the overall level of improvement in existing-home sales we expect as the year progresses,”... (Do ya think??)
Inside the number: Sales are down 8.5% in the past year. South +4.5%, Midwest +2.9%, Northeast -1.3%, West -6.0%.
The hook in mouth media, whom prior to this months report, all but ignored this quasi irrelevant statistic, bellowed that the data "eased the worst of fears of the housing crisis spreading to the broader economy".
Lets get something straight, pending sales data covers 2001 to present. 2001 is the index base of 100, followed by 4 straight record sales years 02,03,04,05. The index has plunged since 05....
As pending sales are NOT closed deals, this index barely qualifies as a "quasi" barometer of "traffic or activity" levels in the current existing sales market.
NAR chief economist David Lereah: "If it wasn't for the unusually bad weather in February, we'd be seeing a better performance in pending home sales... (and the Spring lending locusts might effect performance as well.)
"Although home sales eased in February, housing activity appears to be firming with a modest uptrend in the months ahead... " (must be nice to have that "crystal" ball for the months "ahead")....
"the data suggests an underlying stabilization is taking place in the housing market, but it will take another month or two to clarify.”... (wait a minute, did the crystal ball get cloudly all of a sudden??)
“We also may be seeing some fallout from a decline in subprime lending.... Problems in the subprime mortgage market will become more apparent over time, and they will modestly depress the overall level of improvement in existing-home sales we expect as the year progresses,”... (Do ya think??)
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