Market Soapbox Week Ending 04/06/07
MON, DJIA +28 on below average volume with midlin internals. XAU, XOI & DJUA UP BIG, All UP cept SOXX. Bonds flat 10 yr yield 4.65, $ down vs 1.3366E & vs 117.857Y, WTI crude up $65.94, gold up $671.5
TUE, broadbased triple digit up day, DJIA +128 on low volume with pretty internals. All UP cept DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.66, $ up vs 118.965y & vs 1.3326E, WTI crude down 2% $64.64, gold down $669.7.
WEN, sideways, DJIA +20 on below average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJUA, DJTA, RUT. Bonds up 10yr yield -1 bps 4.65, $ down vs 118.635y & vs 1.3373E, WTI crude down $64.38, gold up 1% $677.4
THU, DJIA +30 on tepid volume with pretty internals. All UP cept XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3 bps 4.68, $ up vs 118.74y & down vs 1.3426E, gold up $679.4, WTI crude down $64.28
FRI: +212K net jobs report spurs wicked rate increase & dollar rally. $ up BIG vs 119.32Y & vs 1.3372E; Bonds down BIG yields rising +6 bps 10 yr yield 4.74%
This week, DJIA +206, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1924. Dollar up vs. Euro 1.3372 & up vs. Yen 119.32, XAU up 142.61 & gold up $679.4, XOI up 1242.59 & WTI crude down $64.28, CRB commodities index up 317.60
This week bonds down BIG yield curve rising +10 bps, correcting and spreading. 30 yr @ 4.92%; 10 yr @ 4.74; 5 yr @ 4.65; 2yr @ 4.72; 6 mo @ 5.09.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 12630; SP500 1450; NAZ 2475; NDX 1820
Support: DJIA 12460; SP500 1425; NAZ 2440; NDX 1795
Dollar index falling 82.93 to 82.7, then bouncing to 82.99 on FRI with the Yen declining & Euro rising, crude falling $65.87 to $64.28.
Gold rising from $669 to $679.4, 30 year bond at 111.01 then falling to 110.10 on FRI, Volatility falling 16.05 to 13.25.
Last week, "we suspect Friday the 6th will be a very big day". Not so fast Joe… markets closed.
However, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wholesale Inventories & Consumer Credit all check in.
The market keeps grinding up on short covering despite all the bad economic news. THURS, SP500 1445, NDX 1813 starting to fill in the 02/27 gap down.
Perhaps Mon or Tues SP500 1455 & NDX 1838? Then what?
REVISED FRIDAY: With the bond market getting clobbered today by the jobs report...
interest rates JUMPED 10 bps on short term and 6 bps on long term and the dollar rallied BIG, perhaps a very bad market reaction on Monday?
TUE, broadbased triple digit up day, DJIA +128 on low volume with pretty internals. All UP cept DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.66, $ up vs 118.965y & vs 1.3326E, WTI crude down 2% $64.64, gold down $669.7.
WEN, sideways, DJIA +20 on below average volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJUA, DJTA, RUT. Bonds up 10yr yield -1 bps 4.65, $ down vs 118.635y & vs 1.3373E, WTI crude down $64.38, gold up 1% $677.4
THU, DJIA +30 on tepid volume with pretty internals. All UP cept XAU. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3 bps 4.68, $ up vs 118.74y & down vs 1.3426E, gold up $679.4, WTI crude down $64.28
FRI: +212K net jobs report spurs wicked rate increase & dollar rally. $ up BIG vs 119.32Y & vs 1.3372E; Bonds down BIG yields rising +6 bps 10 yr yield 4.74%
This week, DJIA +206, since 09/19/05 DJIA +1924. Dollar up vs. Euro 1.3372 & up vs. Yen 119.32, XAU up 142.61 & gold up $679.4, XOI up 1242.59 & WTI crude down $64.28, CRB commodities index up 317.60
This week bonds down BIG yield curve rising +10 bps, correcting and spreading. 30 yr @ 4.92%; 10 yr @ 4.74; 5 yr @ 4.65; 2yr @ 4.72; 6 mo @ 5.09.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - ?
Resistance: DJIA 12630; SP500 1450; NAZ 2475; NDX 1820
Support: DJIA 12460; SP500 1425; NAZ 2440; NDX 1795
Dollar index falling 82.93 to 82.7, then bouncing to 82.99 on FRI with the Yen declining & Euro rising, crude falling $65.87 to $64.28.
Gold rising from $669 to $679.4, 30 year bond at 111.01 then falling to 110.10 on FRI, Volatility falling 16.05 to 13.25.
Last week, "we suspect Friday the 6th will be a very big day". Not so fast Joe… markets closed.
However, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wholesale Inventories & Consumer Credit all check in.
The market keeps grinding up on short covering despite all the bad economic news. THURS, SP500 1445, NDX 1813 starting to fill in the 02/27 gap down.
Perhaps Mon or Tues SP500 1455 & NDX 1838? Then what?
REVISED FRIDAY: With the bond market getting clobbered today by the jobs report...
interest rates JUMPED 10 bps on short term and 6 bps on long term and the dollar rallied BIG, perhaps a very bad market reaction on Monday?
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