Economic Reports 06/15/07
Summary: We gotta trot the little porker out again, today's Soohey Pig Pig award goes to...
Stephen Cecchetti, the Rosenberg professor of global finance at Brandeis University for the following gem:
The Federal Reserve "is right on track to bring inflation down to levels that make us all comfortable."
This on the heels of a CPI proving stagflation is ragin in double digits with the 2nd largest monthly increase in 16 years.
Where do they hand out these PHD's??? (Piled High and Deep)....
BOJ as expected leaving rate at 0.50%, wait until Sept or Oct meeting for a surprise raise. Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment eroding down to 83.7 vs prior 88.3.
Treasury Budget deficit widened from ($42.9B) to ($67.7B); Current Account deficit widened from ($187.9B) to ($192.6B).
NY Empire showing a boost in new orders & shipments, inflation, price margin and capital spending erosion.
TIC data showing foreign central bankds & investors dumping US Treasuries. Industrial production and capacity utilization slowing.
NY Empire State Index Jun 25.8 vs prior 8.0 Full Report
Inside the number: good news... new orders up to 17.2 vs 8.0; shipments up to 29.8 vs 14.1.
Bad news... employment remained weak falling to 3.4 vs 9.7; prices paid rose to 42.6 vs 34.4; prices received fell to 9.6 vs 15.6
Worse news... capital spending fell to 18.09 vs 34.44; technology spending fell to 18.09 vs 26.67
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Apr $84.1B vs prior $51.2B Full Report
Inside the number: Private parties PURCHASED $40 Billion LESS in US Treasuries; Private parties -(9)B vs 29.1B; Central Banks 9.4B vs 1.4B.
Foreign US Treasury HOLDINGS: $28.6 Billion LESS as bonds got dumped on the market; Private parties -(11.7)B; Central Banks -(17)B
Industrial Production May FLAT vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down from +0.7% and declines across the board:
Final Products -0.1% vs +0.6%; Consumer Goods -0.2% vs +0.8%; Business Equipment 0 vs 0; Non industrial supplies +0.1% vs +0.1%; Materials 0 vs +0.4%.
Capacity Utilization 81.3% vs prior 81.5%; prior revised down from 81.6%. Crude 88.7 vs 88.9; Primary & Semi 81.8 vs 82; Finsihed 78.4 vs 78.5
CPI May +0.7% vs prior 0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: 2nd largest monthly increase in 16 years on energy +5.4%. Mythical Core CPI +0.1% vs prior +0.2%.
3 months ended May annual rate CPI-W: All items +8.5%; Transportation +34.7%; Energy +76.2%.
From Table 5 last 6 months ended May annual rate:
Commodities less food & bev. +12.7%; Non Durables +11.8%; Non Durables less food & bev. +18.6%; Non Durables less food, bev & apparel +36.4%.
Once again proving empirically, ANYONE claiming that stagflation is running under 10-15% annual is either a LIAR or a FOOL.
Stephen Cecchetti, the Rosenberg professor of global finance at Brandeis University for the following gem:
The Federal Reserve "is right on track to bring inflation down to levels that make us all comfortable."
This on the heels of a CPI proving stagflation is ragin in double digits with the 2nd largest monthly increase in 16 years.
Where do they hand out these PHD's??? (Piled High and Deep)....
BOJ as expected leaving rate at 0.50%, wait until Sept or Oct meeting for a surprise raise. Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment eroding down to 83.7 vs prior 88.3.
Treasury Budget deficit widened from ($42.9B) to ($67.7B); Current Account deficit widened from ($187.9B) to ($192.6B).
NY Empire showing a boost in new orders & shipments, inflation, price margin and capital spending erosion.
TIC data showing foreign central bankds & investors dumping US Treasuries. Industrial production and capacity utilization slowing.
NY Empire State Index Jun 25.8 vs prior 8.0 Full Report
Inside the number: good news... new orders up to 17.2 vs 8.0; shipments up to 29.8 vs 14.1.
Bad news... employment remained weak falling to 3.4 vs 9.7; prices paid rose to 42.6 vs 34.4; prices received fell to 9.6 vs 15.6
Worse news... capital spending fell to 18.09 vs 34.44; technology spending fell to 18.09 vs 26.67
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Apr $84.1B vs prior $51.2B Full Report
Inside the number: Private parties PURCHASED $40 Billion LESS in US Treasuries; Private parties -(9)B vs 29.1B; Central Banks 9.4B vs 1.4B.
Foreign US Treasury HOLDINGS: $28.6 Billion LESS as bonds got dumped on the market; Private parties -(11.7)B; Central Banks -(17)B
Industrial Production May FLAT vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down from +0.7% and declines across the board:
Final Products -0.1% vs +0.6%; Consumer Goods -0.2% vs +0.8%; Business Equipment 0 vs 0; Non industrial supplies +0.1% vs +0.1%; Materials 0 vs +0.4%.
Capacity Utilization 81.3% vs prior 81.5%; prior revised down from 81.6%. Crude 88.7 vs 88.9; Primary & Semi 81.8 vs 82; Finsihed 78.4 vs 78.5
CPI May +0.7% vs prior 0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: 2nd largest monthly increase in 16 years on energy +5.4%. Mythical Core CPI +0.1% vs prior +0.2%.
3 months ended May annual rate CPI-W: All items +8.5%; Transportation +34.7%; Energy +76.2%.
From Table 5 last 6 months ended May annual rate:
Commodities less food & bev. +12.7%; Non Durables +11.8%; Non Durables less food & bev. +18.6%; Non Durables less food, bev & apparel +36.4%.
Once again proving empirically, ANYONE claiming that stagflation is running under 10-15% annual is either a LIAR or a FOOL.
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