Fed Beige Book 06/13/07
Fed Beige Book
Headline reads Beige Book showing improved economic growth with little wage price pressures... Fed makes Wall Street cheer....
You read the following and make your own judgement. All Nattering in Italics....
Consumer spending and retail sales were generally up in late April and May, with a number of Districts reporting that luxury items were selling better than lower-end merchandise.
There have been significant price increases for energy-related products and selected raw materials.
More than half the Districts mentioned higher energy prices for both producers and consumers. Thus raising prices while unit sales are falling.
Several District banks reported weakness in sales of big ticket items such as furniture and household durables.
Declines were widely reported in the trucking industry... sluggish demand or declines were noted in half the Districts.
If sales are "increasing" than why is shipping declining? Interesting Codicil: Since mid May the Baltic Dry Index has dropped 17%.
The last 2 quarters of trucking volume declines telegraphed a pullback in global demand for raw goods. We catch cold, they get the flu...
There was weakness among manufacturers producing for the residential construction industry and weakness in residential mortgages and consumer lending...
Residential mortgage lending was either declining or flat in all the Districts reporting except New York.
New York, Atlanta, and Chicago mentioned higher mortgage delinquencies.
There was continuing weakness in residential real estate and construction...
Most Districts characterized their housing markets as soft or weak. No District reported an increase in new home construction.
Moreover, inventories and days on the market continue to rise in some Districts.
Layoffs continued among home builders and in the manufacturing and service industries associated with home building.
Given the above comments...
and our nattering estimate that 60% of all new jobs since 2001 (40% construction + 20% service) have been created by the housing industry...
which the Washington Post recently trumped us by claiming 75%...
All I can see in this Beige Book indicates this economy is a dead man walking.
Headline reads Beige Book showing improved economic growth with little wage price pressures... Fed makes Wall Street cheer....
You read the following and make your own judgement. All Nattering in Italics....
Consumer spending and retail sales were generally up in late April and May, with a number of Districts reporting that luxury items were selling better than lower-end merchandise.
There have been significant price increases for energy-related products and selected raw materials.
More than half the Districts mentioned higher energy prices for both producers and consumers. Thus raising prices while unit sales are falling.
Several District banks reported weakness in sales of big ticket items such as furniture and household durables.
Declines were widely reported in the trucking industry... sluggish demand or declines were noted in half the Districts.
If sales are "increasing" than why is shipping declining? Interesting Codicil: Since mid May the Baltic Dry Index has dropped 17%.
The last 2 quarters of trucking volume declines telegraphed a pullback in global demand for raw goods. We catch cold, they get the flu...
There was weakness among manufacturers producing for the residential construction industry and weakness in residential mortgages and consumer lending...
Residential mortgage lending was either declining or flat in all the Districts reporting except New York.
New York, Atlanta, and Chicago mentioned higher mortgage delinquencies.
There was continuing weakness in residential real estate and construction...
Most Districts characterized their housing markets as soft or weak. No District reported an increase in new home construction.
Moreover, inventories and days on the market continue to rise in some Districts.
Layoffs continued among home builders and in the manufacturing and service industries associated with home building.
Given the above comments...
and our nattering estimate that 60% of all new jobs since 2001 (40% construction + 20% service) have been created by the housing industry...
which the Washington Post recently trumped us by claiming 75%...
All I can see in this Beige Book indicates this economy is a dead man walking.
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