Economic Reports 08/14/07
Summary: Happy Daze spin sez Core PPI slowing, upon further review: PPI shows more stagflagation pressure building in the pipeline vis a vis crude goods costs.
Happy Daze spin sez narrowing trade deficit, upon further review: Trade Balance shows exportation of stagflation and a slowing economic base.
PPI Jul +0.6% vs prior -0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI +0.1% vs prior +0.3%. Crude goods +1.2% vs +0.3%; Intermediate goods +0.6% vs +0.5%; finished goods +0.7%; sounds good so far eh?
Pressure in the pipeline: YOY crude goods +13.1%; intermediate goods +4.1%; finished goods +4%.
Sequential stagflation: materials for non durable manufacturing +1.1% vs prior +1.8%. Crude material non food ex fuel +5.9%
Economic slowing: materials for durable manufacturing -0.5% vs prior +0.3%
Trade Balance Jun -58.1B vs prior -$59.2B Full Report
Inside the number: Happy spin... -1.7% falling to the lowest in 4 months and running 7% below last years record $758.5 Billion.
Reality: Imports rising to an all time record as oil prices jumped. Imbalance with China +5.7% and YTD +15.3% over 2006.
Happy spin... exports "the saviour" +$2 billion last month to an all time high. Right, thats the ticket...
Reality: illusory, the export increases are mostly stagflation getting exported on industrial supplies costs, not more consumer or capital goods production.
You say, no way Naybob! Not so fast Joe...
Exhibit 10 chained 2000 dollars: exports +$968 M of which +$723M on industrial supplies. FYI consumer goods exports -$146M; capital goods exports -$52M.
In keeping with the unadjusted numbers in yesterday's economic reports (amongst others)...
The YOY export increase is +11.2%, the bulk of it on double digit price increases.
Bad news: John Q pulling back with empty pockets, a sequential $0.4 Billion decrease in export and import of consumer goods.
Chained 2000 $: Consumer goods imports -$247M
Worse news: Industry slowing, chained 2000 $: industrial supplies imports -$367M.
Unadjusted $: industrial supplies imports YOY YTD -$1.513 B; automotive imports -$1.472 B.
Even worse news: last month chained 2000 $: imports automotive +$823M; capital goods +$560M. We have Nattered about this before and we will Natter about it again...
Since 2000, the loss of 3 Million manufacturing jobs and the final emasculation of the US automotive industry have resulted in a NON DURABLE economic base with no fall back position.
An over reliance on hyperinflated assets, cheap money, money shuffling activities and service sector jobs will ultimately send the US economy into a hard landing which will severely impact the fledgling global economy.
Happy Daze spin sez narrowing trade deficit, upon further review: Trade Balance shows exportation of stagflation and a slowing economic base.
PPI Jul +0.6% vs prior -0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Core PPI +0.1% vs prior +0.3%. Crude goods +1.2% vs +0.3%; Intermediate goods +0.6% vs +0.5%; finished goods +0.7%; sounds good so far eh?
Pressure in the pipeline: YOY crude goods +13.1%; intermediate goods +4.1%; finished goods +4%.
Sequential stagflation: materials for non durable manufacturing +1.1% vs prior +1.8%. Crude material non food ex fuel +5.9%
Economic slowing: materials for durable manufacturing -0.5% vs prior +0.3%
Trade Balance Jun -58.1B vs prior -$59.2B Full Report
Inside the number: Happy spin... -1.7% falling to the lowest in 4 months and running 7% below last years record $758.5 Billion.
Reality: Imports rising to an all time record as oil prices jumped. Imbalance with China +5.7% and YTD +15.3% over 2006.
Happy spin... exports "the saviour" +$2 billion last month to an all time high. Right, thats the ticket...
Reality: illusory, the export increases are mostly stagflation getting exported on industrial supplies costs, not more consumer or capital goods production.
You say, no way Naybob! Not so fast Joe...
Exhibit 10 chained 2000 dollars: exports +$968 M of which +$723M on industrial supplies. FYI consumer goods exports -$146M; capital goods exports -$52M.
In keeping with the unadjusted numbers in yesterday's economic reports (amongst others)...
The YOY export increase is +11.2%, the bulk of it on double digit price increases.
Bad news: John Q pulling back with empty pockets, a sequential $0.4 Billion decrease in export and import of consumer goods.
Chained 2000 $: Consumer goods imports -$247M
Worse news: Industry slowing, chained 2000 $: industrial supplies imports -$367M.
Unadjusted $: industrial supplies imports YOY YTD -$1.513 B; automotive imports -$1.472 B.
Even worse news: last month chained 2000 $: imports automotive +$823M; capital goods +$560M. We have Nattered about this before and we will Natter about it again...
Since 2000, the loss of 3 Million manufacturing jobs and the final emasculation of the US automotive industry have resulted in a NON DURABLE economic base with no fall back position.
An over reliance on hyperinflated assets, cheap money, money shuffling activities and service sector jobs will ultimately send the US economy into a hard landing which will severely impact the fledgling global economy.
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