Economic Reports 08/15/07
Summary: Run Forest, Run... TIC data showing private foreign inflows shrinking $100 Billion.
Industrial Production still decelerating as construction cools further; non seasonally adjusted production numbers heading straight into the toilet.
NY Empire Index confirming and reiterating lowered future expectations.
Headline CPI spin sez inflation is getting "butter", but its not, the numbers prove double digit growth.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Jun $58.8 B vs prior $107.3B Full Report
Inside the number: Prior inflows adjusted down from 126.1B Private foreign capital inflows +$0.7 Billion vs +$109 Billion in May.
Total net treasury purchases hitting $54.3 billion, the highest in more than four years.
However, net treasury holdings decreasing -$17.9 Billion and short term foreign holdings decreasing -$27.9 Billion.
China a net seller for the 3rd straight month -$2.3 Billion.
Industrial Production Jul +0.3% vs +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization 81.9% vs prior 81.7%. IP less autos +0.3%. Sounds good eh?
Decelerating: Final Products +0.5 vs prior +0.9; Consumer Goods +0.3 vs +1%.
Still decelerating and negative YOY: Non industrial supplies -0.3% vs +0.5%; YOY -0.4%; Construction -0.1% vs prior +1.2%; YOY -1.4%.
Non durable production down & primary goods gross value dropping 7% in Q2
Pulling back...Table 1 Manufacturing Non Durable Q1 +2.6%; Q2 +0.8%.
Table 10 Gross Value Weighted IP % change: Primary goods Q1 +7.2%; Q2 +0.2%; YOY -1.5%.
Q2 motor vehicle & parts production spike Q1 -7.5%; Q2 +13.2%.
Interesting Codicil: note crude oil rising in Q2 and almost hitting $80 in July while energy and utilities related output shrank in Q2.
Utilities -2.1% vs +0.1%; Energy -0.8% vs +0.5% and Q2 -7.1% vs Q1 +13.5%
I was almost ready to bite and say this report showed across the board Q2 improvement... which in seasonally adjusted numbers it does.
Then I looked at Table 17 and my jaw dropped.
These non seasonally adjusted numbers are NOT included in the regular report and for a very good reason:
By stage of process: Crude -0.3%; Primary -2.3%; Finished -5.5% and it gets worse...
Materials -3.9%; final products -3.4%; consumer goods -3.6%; business equipment -3.2%.
Durable goods manufacturing -15.6%; automotive vehicles & parts -27.7%; consumer autos & trucks -40.7%
NY Empire State Index Aug 25.1 vs prior 26.5 Full Report
Inside the number: new orders fell 22.2 from 26.5, shipments fell to 28.8 from 29.2; unfilled orders fell 1.1 from 2.5.
Employment up to 11.6 from 11.4; prices paid fell to 34.4 from 34.6; prices received fell to 3.2 from 8.6, the lowest in two years.
Delivery times slowing 6.45 from -6.17; Inventories building -2.15 from -19.75; What are future expectations 6 months ahead?
Every single category DECREASED, including capital expenditures fell to 26.88 from 29.63; technology spending fell to 13.98 from 22.22.
CPI Jul +0.1 vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI +0.2% vs prior +0.2%. An economist for Wachovia Securities: (Name omitted to prevent further shame...)
"The housing slump is helping contain inflation, as the oversupply of homes is helping restrain rent increases."
On what planet or insane asylum did they find this freakin lunatic? Meanwhile in the real world...
Compound Annual Rate CPI-W last quarter: Food +4.6%; Housing +4.5%; Medical Care +4.7%; Transportation +10.9%; Energy +17.2%.
Table 5; 3 mos ended July % increase: dairy +30%; lodging away from home +20%; transportation +10.9%; motor fuel +34%; hospital +6.8%; education books supplies +6.9%.
How bad is it? last 3 mos vs 6 mos...
Non durables less food & bev & apparel +17.2% vs +26.9%. Meanwhile cheap imported durables declining -0.6% vs -0.9% and more McJobs as services only increasing +2.5% vs +3.1%.
Commodities less food +7.3% vs +10.1%; Non durables less food +9.2% vs +13.5%; Non durables +6.5% vs +9.3%; Energy commodities +34.1% vs +54.9%
Purchasing power of today's dollar: 0.49 vs (1982-84 = $1) and 0.16 vs (1967 = $1).
Anyone claiming our stag- or inflation is tame or not in double digits is either on drugs, an idiot or a paid liar.
Industrial Production still decelerating as construction cools further; non seasonally adjusted production numbers heading straight into the toilet.
NY Empire Index confirming and reiterating lowered future expectations.
Headline CPI spin sez inflation is getting "butter", but its not, the numbers prove double digit growth.
TIC Net Foreign Purchases Jun $58.8 B vs prior $107.3B Full Report
Inside the number: Prior inflows adjusted down from 126.1B Private foreign capital inflows +$0.7 Billion vs +$109 Billion in May.
Total net treasury purchases hitting $54.3 billion, the highest in more than four years.
However, net treasury holdings decreasing -$17.9 Billion and short term foreign holdings decreasing -$27.9 Billion.
China a net seller for the 3rd straight month -$2.3 Billion.
Industrial Production Jul +0.3% vs +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization 81.9% vs prior 81.7%. IP less autos +0.3%. Sounds good eh?
Decelerating: Final Products +0.5 vs prior +0.9; Consumer Goods +0.3 vs +1%.
Still decelerating and negative YOY: Non industrial supplies -0.3% vs +0.5%; YOY -0.4%; Construction -0.1% vs prior +1.2%; YOY -1.4%.
Non durable production down & primary goods gross value dropping 7% in Q2
Pulling back...Table 1 Manufacturing Non Durable Q1 +2.6%; Q2 +0.8%.
Table 10 Gross Value Weighted IP % change: Primary goods Q1 +7.2%; Q2 +0.2%; YOY -1.5%.
Q2 motor vehicle & parts production spike Q1 -7.5%; Q2 +13.2%.
Interesting Codicil: note crude oil rising in Q2 and almost hitting $80 in July while energy and utilities related output shrank in Q2.
Utilities -2.1% vs +0.1%; Energy -0.8% vs +0.5% and Q2 -7.1% vs Q1 +13.5%
I was almost ready to bite and say this report showed across the board Q2 improvement... which in seasonally adjusted numbers it does.
Then I looked at Table 17 and my jaw dropped.
These non seasonally adjusted numbers are NOT included in the regular report and for a very good reason:
By stage of process: Crude -0.3%; Primary -2.3%; Finished -5.5% and it gets worse...
Materials -3.9%; final products -3.4%; consumer goods -3.6%; business equipment -3.2%.
Durable goods manufacturing -15.6%; automotive vehicles & parts -27.7%; consumer autos & trucks -40.7%
NY Empire State Index Aug 25.1 vs prior 26.5 Full Report
Inside the number: new orders fell 22.2 from 26.5, shipments fell to 28.8 from 29.2; unfilled orders fell 1.1 from 2.5.
Employment up to 11.6 from 11.4; prices paid fell to 34.4 from 34.6; prices received fell to 3.2 from 8.6, the lowest in two years.
Delivery times slowing 6.45 from -6.17; Inventories building -2.15 from -19.75; What are future expectations 6 months ahead?
Every single category DECREASED, including capital expenditures fell to 26.88 from 29.63; technology spending fell to 13.98 from 22.22.
CPI Jul +0.1 vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI +0.2% vs prior +0.2%. An economist for Wachovia Securities: (Name omitted to prevent further shame...)
"The housing slump is helping contain inflation, as the oversupply of homes is helping restrain rent increases."
On what planet or insane asylum did they find this freakin lunatic? Meanwhile in the real world...
Compound Annual Rate CPI-W last quarter: Food +4.6%; Housing +4.5%; Medical Care +4.7%; Transportation +10.9%; Energy +17.2%.
Table 5; 3 mos ended July % increase: dairy +30%; lodging away from home +20%; transportation +10.9%; motor fuel +34%; hospital +6.8%; education books supplies +6.9%.
How bad is it? last 3 mos vs 6 mos...
Non durables less food & bev & apparel +17.2% vs +26.9%. Meanwhile cheap imported durables declining -0.6% vs -0.9% and more McJobs as services only increasing +2.5% vs +3.1%.
Commodities less food +7.3% vs +10.1%; Non durables less food +9.2% vs +13.5%; Non durables +6.5% vs +9.3%; Energy commodities +34.1% vs +54.9%
Purchasing power of today's dollar: 0.49 vs (1982-84 = $1) and 0.16 vs (1967 = $1).
Anyone claiming our stag- or inflation is tame or not in double digits is either on drugs, an idiot or a paid liar.
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