Economic Reports 09/06/07
Summary: BOE 5.75% & ECB 4% leaving rates unchanged. ECB pumped $57.7 billion into money markets.
Initial claims decline, but... long term unemployment and the spillover from the housing sector worsens. Q2 Productivity up, however...
Non durable manufacturing output went negative and unit profits for non financial corporate were negative for the 3rd straight quarter.
ISM steady, however, employment has gone into contraction for the first time since July 2004.
BOE & ECB Statements
BOE, 1st statement released with no change in rate:
"It is too soon to tell how far the disruption in financial markets will impair the availability of credit to companies and households. "
ECB, "the likely slowdown in the United States is expected to be largely offset by the continued strong growth in emerging markets."
Initial Claims 09/01 -19K 318K vs 337K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised +3K. 4 week MA +.5K @ 327.5K. Continuing
unemployment +25K @ 2.598M; 4 week MA +12K @ 2.5715M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
SC +1,001 manufacturing
IL +1,243 trade, service, manufacturing
PA +2,017 petroleum, nonmetallic mineral products, mining
CA +2,208 construction
WI +3,043 construction, service, manufacturing
NY +3,181 transportation, service
Productivity-Rev. Q2 2.6% vs 1.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Q2 vs Q1: Business +3.5% vs +0.2%; Non Farm Business +2.6% vs +0.7%; Manufacturing +1.8% vs +1.7%.
A sign John Q is pulling back, manufacturing Output: Durable +4.7%; Non Durable -1.4%.
A sign that profit margins are shrinking, YOY % change in non financial corporate unit profits : Q406 -5.9%; Q107 -6.1%; Q207 -4.4%.
ISM Services Aug 55.8 vs 55.8 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders growing 57 vs 52.8; Employment contracting (last time July 04) 47.9 vs 51.7; Supplier deliveries slowing 50.5 vs 51.5.
Inventories growing 57 vs 55; Prices growing slower 58.6 vs 61.3; Backlog unchanged 50 vs 53;
"We are getting mixed messages on the economy. Looks like tight credit is slowing business down." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
"Financial market conditions turned negative." (Finance & Insurance)
"The general state of the home building sector is still very low with material costs fluctuating monthly. Sales volume is trending down with less traffic over prior month. Labor rates are declining with some companies closing their doors due to little to no new business." (Construction)
Initial claims decline, but... long term unemployment and the spillover from the housing sector worsens. Q2 Productivity up, however...
Non durable manufacturing output went negative and unit profits for non financial corporate were negative for the 3rd straight quarter.
ISM steady, however, employment has gone into contraction for the first time since July 2004.
BOE & ECB Statements
BOE, 1st statement released with no change in rate:
"It is too soon to tell how far the disruption in financial markets will impair the availability of credit to companies and households. "
ECB, "the likely slowdown in the United States is expected to be largely offset by the continued strong growth in emerging markets."
Initial Claims 09/01 -19K 318K vs 337K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised +3K. 4 week MA +.5K @ 327.5K. Continuing
unemployment +25K @ 2.598M; 4 week MA +12K @ 2.5715M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
SC +1,001 manufacturing
IL +1,243 trade, service, manufacturing
PA +2,017 petroleum, nonmetallic mineral products, mining
CA +2,208 construction
WI +3,043 construction, service, manufacturing
NY +3,181 transportation, service
Productivity-Rev. Q2 2.6% vs 1.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Q2 vs Q1: Business +3.5% vs +0.2%; Non Farm Business +2.6% vs +0.7%; Manufacturing +1.8% vs +1.7%.
A sign John Q is pulling back, manufacturing Output: Durable +4.7%; Non Durable -1.4%.
A sign that profit margins are shrinking, YOY % change in non financial corporate unit profits : Q406 -5.9%; Q107 -6.1%; Q207 -4.4%.
ISM Services Aug 55.8 vs 55.8 Full Report
Inside the number: New orders growing 57 vs 52.8; Employment contracting (last time July 04) 47.9 vs 51.7; Supplier deliveries slowing 50.5 vs 51.5.
Inventories growing 57 vs 55; Prices growing slower 58.6 vs 61.3; Backlog unchanged 50 vs 53;
"We are getting mixed messages on the economy. Looks like tight credit is slowing business down." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
"Financial market conditions turned negative." (Finance & Insurance)
"The general state of the home building sector is still very low with material costs fluctuating monthly. Sales volume is trending down with less traffic over prior month. Labor rates are declining with some companies closing their doors due to little to no new business." (Construction)
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