Economic Reports 09/07/07
Summary: Wholesale Inventories showing a build in durable & non durable as John Q pulls back. Worse yet, a clear double digit stagflation.
Non Farm Payrolls in contraction (negative), evidencing the economy going over a cliff vis a vis a worsening employment base composition.
Wholesale Inventories Jul +0.24% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number:
Total Sales +0.08%; Durable +0.2%; Non Durable +0.13%;
Inventories +0.24%; Durable -0.53%; Non Durable +1.53%;
Sales YOY +7.22%; Durable +4.25%; Non Durable +10%.
Inven YOY +5.5%; Durable +2.12%; Non Durable +11.54%
Interesting enough YTD figures show a much different picture than YOY: Durable inventories are backing up and $ sales are barely keeping pace with $ inventory build.
Sales Total +7.75%; Durable +5.3%; Non Durable +10.12%
Inven. Total +7.23%; Durable +5.74%; Non Durable +9.9%
Since the dollar amounts are not adjusted for price changes, a clear view of inflation or deflation is present.
Take 2 YOY durable items that we know sales are off by at least 10%, both should have negative -10% sales. Motor Vehicles +0.58%; Hardware Supplies +0.46%, the difference is a 10% price increase.
Take 2 YOY non durable items that we know sales by unit have increased marginally, both should have increased+3%, Grocery +13%; Farm Product +29%, the difference is a 10%+ price increase.
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug -4K vs prior +92K Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment Rate Aug 4.6% vs prior 4.6%. The emasculated durable economy:
Residential specialty trade contractors -18.1K; Motor vehicle & parts -11K; machinery -7K; wood products -7K; furniture -4K; semiconductors -4K; Non durable textiles -2K; apparel -4K.
Durable goods -30K (since 08/06 -189K); Construction -22K (in the last year -413K), Manufacturing -46K (in the last year -215K).
The non durable service based McJobs economy: Service providing +60K; healthcare & education +63K.
Shat budgets & services gets cut first in tough times??? Hospitality, Healthcare & Education.
Greedy corporations wanted to squeeze more profit from labor at the margin. Shoppers wanted cheap Chinese goods, well, you got it, Toyota.
Stick a fork in U.S. we are done, make the dollar like the Peso and better hope for alot of rich tourists and fast:
Goods producing -64K (in the last year -688K)
Leisure & Hospitality +24K (in the last year +350K)
We will say it again, exports to emerging economies will not save this sinking ship.
If you could get every man, woman and child in China & India to start making purchases, it still wouldn't be enough.
And the problem will exacerbate when China & India roll over a cliff, as they CANNOT support their export driven economies on internal demand alone.
Non Farm Payrolls in contraction (negative), evidencing the economy going over a cliff vis a vis a worsening employment base composition.
Wholesale Inventories Jul +0.24% vs prior +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number:
Total Sales +0.08%; Durable +0.2%; Non Durable +0.13%;
Inventories +0.24%; Durable -0.53%; Non Durable +1.53%;
Sales YOY +7.22%; Durable +4.25%; Non Durable +10%.
Inven YOY +5.5%; Durable +2.12%; Non Durable +11.54%
Interesting enough YTD figures show a much different picture than YOY: Durable inventories are backing up and $ sales are barely keeping pace with $ inventory build.
Sales Total +7.75%; Durable +5.3%; Non Durable +10.12%
Inven. Total +7.23%; Durable +5.74%; Non Durable +9.9%
Since the dollar amounts are not adjusted for price changes, a clear view of inflation or deflation is present.
Take 2 YOY durable items that we know sales are off by at least 10%, both should have negative -10% sales. Motor Vehicles +0.58%; Hardware Supplies +0.46%, the difference is a 10% price increase.
Take 2 YOY non durable items that we know sales by unit have increased marginally, both should have increased+3%, Grocery +13%; Farm Product +29%, the difference is a 10%+ price increase.
Nonfarm Payrolls Aug -4K vs prior +92K Full Report
Inside the number: Unemployment Rate Aug 4.6% vs prior 4.6%. The emasculated durable economy:
Residential specialty trade contractors -18.1K; Motor vehicle & parts -11K; machinery -7K; wood products -7K; furniture -4K; semiconductors -4K; Non durable textiles -2K; apparel -4K.
Durable goods -30K (since 08/06 -189K); Construction -22K (in the last year -413K), Manufacturing -46K (in the last year -215K).
The non durable service based McJobs economy: Service providing +60K; healthcare & education +63K.
Shat budgets & services gets cut first in tough times??? Hospitality, Healthcare & Education.
Greedy corporations wanted to squeeze more profit from labor at the margin. Shoppers wanted cheap Chinese goods, well, you got it, Toyota.
Stick a fork in U.S. we are done, make the dollar like the Peso and better hope for alot of rich tourists and fast:
Goods producing -64K (in the last year -688K)
Leisure & Hospitality +24K (in the last year +350K)
We will say it again, exports to emerging economies will not save this sinking ship.
If you could get every man, woman and child in China & India to start making purchases, it still wouldn't be enough.
And the problem will exacerbate when China & India roll over a cliff, as they CANNOT support their export driven economies on internal demand alone.
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